3 minute read
Trent Crebbin runs the rule of Private Life’s Guineas win from a ratings perspective.
Looking at the time Private Life ran, it is average.
It's okay compared to Grinzinger Belle but awful compared to Antino (who has gone like a rocket), and all-in-all, just looks like a recent (Anamoe excluded) typical Caulfield Guineas, if you take out Broadsiding.
It's hard to make a case he was an unlucky loser. He ran the fastest last 400/200m of the race, but it's hardly like he's finishing all over them.
Even if you want to say there was a bias, which there probably was, but just because there's almost always a bias to horses leading on a firm deck at Caulfield, I certainly can't say he would've definitely won.
Evaporate is the clear knock on that. They were in run together and while he got going a touch earlier, that Broadsiding couldn't even get over that horse late says plenty.
Why Broadsiding didn't run to his best (which is not up for debate- he's clearly regressed significantly), could be due to any number of factors, the most likely one being that he's a young horse who had a below par day.
The winner has run to 116 on the Timeform scale which is what we're almost coming to expect in recent years. The lowest rated Guineas winner was Golden Mile at 114 in 2022 while Griff also went to 116 last year. It's a far cry from Anamoe (123) and The Autumn Sun (126), who hold up the recent average.
The real question is, what do we do with the form? I've seen some commentary that Broadsiding's run reminded them of So You Think.
So You Think was rated 114 by Timeform going into the Guineas (Broadsiding 121) and then ran 109 in the Guineas (Broadsiding 112), but to suggest Broadsiding can spike as highly as one of the all-time greatest Australian horses is very doubtful.
So You Think improved 16 pounds to run 125 in the Cox Plate and that is likely the minimum requirement needed to win this year. Broadsiding can and should improve, but this isn't a strong Guineas and I think he would've had to really put them away, or have been last in run and finishing ridiculously fast to suggest he's going to be a genuine Cox Plate chance.