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A capacity field will contest this afternoon's renewal of the G1 Australian Guineas for three-year-olds over the metric mile at Flemington.
Photo by Racing and Sports
It has been a while since an Australian Guineas field has boasted all the Classic winners and many major players from the Spring.
Not only is Caulfield Guineas winner Helmet taking his place but also entered is Victoria Derby winner Sangster, VRC Oaks winner Mosheen, Norman Robinson Stakes winner Sabrage, Gloaming Stakes winner Strike The Stars and C S Hayes winner That's The One.
Helmet's crown as the premier three-year-old miler will be put fairly and squarely on the line this afternoon and following a rather disappointing effort when resuming in the C S Hayes Stakes over 1400m at Flemington when a close up fifth, there are several punters willing to go against him today.
However I am not one of those. Helmet is a quality galloper, proven at the highest level with three Group 1 wins to his credit, two over the 1600m journey as well as several other high rating performances amongst his six career win total from just 11 race starts.
Helmet is being prepared for the UAE Derby in Dubai later this month and this afternoon's race will be his final Australian run before heading off overseas on a campaign that is likely to see him compete at Royal Ascot in June.
There is no doubt that his fresh up effort in the C S Hayes was disappointing at first glance, even more so for those who laid the $1.80 short odds on offer.
But in fairness to the long striding Helmet, he was bailed up on the rails after being ridden in behind the speed – clearly a situation that Helmet was uncomfortable with consequently resulting in a below par run.
Prior to resuming, Helmet had reached close to peak racing fitness courtesy of strong track work outs and a barrier trial at Cranbourne which he won comfortably.
Today he stretches out to his best distance of 1600m, a distance over which he has already dominated at two and at three and at this level.
Helmet comes into today's race with a master Timeform rating of 127 earned in his Caulfield Guineas win that featured an epic duel with runner-up Manawanui for the entire length of the Caulfield home straight.
Helmet would not need to reproduce that level of performance at this distance to beat this field under the set weight conditions, which does leave him some leeway for further improvement in Dubai. That said reports from Flemington track watchers indicate Helmet has made further improvement from his fresh up run and will be much fitter to cope with the additional 200m this afternoon.
Regular rider Kerrin McEvoy is likely to revert to the normal free going racing style for Helmet today rather than try and restrain him in the field, a tactic that clearly bought him undone last start.
It is significant that all three of Helmet's G1 victories have been achieved when ridden in this manner. If repeated this afternoon it should see him go close to victory.
If successful Helmet will join Mahogany as the only two three-year-olds to have taken the Caulfield Guineas-Australian Guineas double.
Further a Helmet win would see him as the only horse to have taken both the G1 AJC Champagne Stakes and Sires' Produce Stakes double at two and the Caulfield Guineas – Australian Guineas double at three.
Only two horses have previously won the AJC Champagne Stakes at two and won the Australian Guineas at three, True Version (1985/6) and Triscay (1990/91).
The hardest to beat are VRC Oaks winner Mosheen and up and coming galloper That's The One.
I will come to Mosheen in a minute but That's The One is a rapid ratings riser and this race has been won by such horses previously.Only lightly raced, That's The One began his career last Spring with three successive wins before failing to get into the frame behind Helmet in the Guineas Prelude at Caulfield.
Spelled after that run, he resumed in the Manfred Stakes catching the eye with a late finish from near the rear for second to Mosheen over an unsuitable distance of 1200m.
Then last start he stepped up again in class and distance to the G3 C S Hayes Stakes and showed further improvement stalking late for a comprehensive win over Decircles (Helmet unplaced).
On that occasion he covered extra ground via a wide run and despite racing “greenly” at stages in the straight proved too strong for his rivals.
That's The One improved his Timeform rating eight pounds between those runs and I am expecting a further increase today.
That's The One has plenty of raw talent. He will keep improving as he learns more about racing. I know he has to improve his Timeform rating quite a bit to reach the level of Helmet and Mosheen however he is a horse to keep safe this afternoon.
VRC Oaks winner Mosheen resumed with an impressive victory in the Manfred Stakes over 1200m then was surprisingly beaten by Shopaholic in the Vanity Stakes under set weights starting at very cramped odds.
The fact Shopaholic won again last Saturday makes the form line look better than it did on raceday and perhaps Mosheen can be forgiven that blip on her CV.
Mosheen has a master Timeform rating of 124 from her nine length Oaks victory but a rating much lower than that at 1600m.
That said under the set weight conditions of this race her 1600m Timeform rating of 115 is still sufficient to put her right in the frame and she cannot be easily discounted as a winning chance.
It is hard to dismiss the fact that Mosheen did win the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes and was runner up to brilliant filly Atlantic Jewel in the G1 Thousand Guineas at 1600m.
Should Mosheen be successful this afternoon, she will join the outstanding Miss Finland as the only fillies to have won the VRC Oaks-Australian Guineas double.
Looking for other chances, there is a myriad of second tier possible hopes including last start G1 placegetter Admantium, Strike The Stars, Instinction, Highly Recommended and Proliferate to name a few.
The value in the race could be the Anthony Cummings-trained Strike The Stars.
From a limited first campaign spanning just eight starts in the Spring, Strike The Stars showed enormous potential, the standout efforts were his close third to Trusting in the G2 Chelmsford Stakes over 1600m and his impressive win in the G2 Gloaming Stakes defeating subsequent G1 Champion Stakes winner Doctor Doom.
Strike The Stars is second up today and jumps to 1600m from 1200m where is chased home Sydney's latest sprinting sensation Rain Affair at Rosehill working home nicely from well back in the field for fifth placing less than six lengths from the winner.
He is bound to be much fitter this afternoon and is capable of getting into the frame at big odds.
No matter what the outcome today, the 2012 Australian Guineas renewal is likely to be a very strong form line for what happens this Autumn.
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