3 minute read
Long before the Will Ferrel of Anchorman fame was William Ferrel the famous American meteorologist who, through the 19th century, became one of histories most respected weathermen, much like the Tim Bailey of his day.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Ferrel worked on several meteorological theories - most famously in regards to the way the atmosphere moves relative to the Earth - with his work very similar to how we the punter operate today.
Meteorologists, like punters, take a series of facts/statistics and use that data to make predictions regarding future events and despite the quality of data and analysis both meteorology and punting remain imperfect sciences.
We’ve all been caught in the rain on a day that was, according to the weatherman, set to be sunny and we have all backed a horse at well over what we perceive its true odds to be only to see it unluckily beaten.
But it is the thrill of getting it right that keeps the punters, the William Ferrels and the Tim Baileys of this world in search of the next winner.
The second race at Sandown Wednesday shapes as a good contest with all of the nine runners lightly raced and showing plenty of promise.
Predicting who will improve most on the day is an imperfect science but we can, like our meteorological colleagues, make an educated guess.
Thunder Rain is a filly on an upward spiral, winning twice in eight starts and showing her best form when placed twice in listed company at the back of last campaign.
In both of those starts she was ridden to lead at a solid clip and stuck on bravely, returning form that sees her well placed in this, particularly after the claim, and solid timefigures alongside the form further strengthen her case.
The 1000m on offer today is perhaps not ideal, with that peak form having come at 1400m, but her racing pattern offsets that somewhat.
Racing on the speed is typically the place to be and it is particularly high-percentage over the 1000m course at Sandown-Hillside.
From a data-set of nearly 400 races at the course and distance 27.3% of winners were in-front when straightening for home. That number rises to 57.2% of winners when straightening in the top trio.
This stat becomes particularly relevant to Thunder Rain when looking at Double Dee, the horse seen as the biggest danger to her today.
Double Dee led all the way to win a Mornington maiden back in December but showed even better form when ridden more quietly in two runs to follow.
At her most recent start Double Dee tucked in at the back of the field down the straight course at Flemington and charged home late, producing a strong sectional but missing the boat, finishing fourth.
Double Dee is clearly a filly with plenty of talent but if they opt to ride her conservatively again here the percentages appear in favour of Thunder Rain.
Beyond Infinity is the horse that looks set to pressure Thunder Rain for the front today.
Beyond Infinity showed good ability racing on the pace on debut in Adelaide but ridden quietly next time out at Wagga was a flop, finishing down the track in a modest maiden.
Back from a 212 day spell last time he was sent straight to the front and the rest of the field didn’t sight him again, roaring away to win by nine lengths on the line.
Tempering enthusiasm for that wide-margin success was the fact that the horses he beat were modestly performed at best and the overall time was nothing to shout about but the margin in itself must be respected and there is surely more to come.
There is certainly more to come from Union Gap as well. The son of Elusive Quality showed smart form in the spring, placing at listed level and catching the eye with a closing fourth in the Group 3 Carbine Club before a spell.
He’s back from the mile to kick off this campaign over 1000m which is likely to prove short of his best and he is likely to get back and give them all a start but he certainly has the class and tumbling back to this grade is not unfairly weighted at all.
It’s an open race but there is plenty pointing to a bold showing from Thunder Rain who appeals as a good gamble at current odds for punters and meteorologists alike.