Another Nash Affair

3 minute read

Champion Sydney rider Nash Rawiller looks set to add the G3 Missile Stakes to his imposing riding record when he sits atop crack sprinter Rain Affair in this afternoon’s feature at Randwick.

Rawiller fresh from an outstanding 2012/13 season winning the jockey’s premiership title with 77 winners, is yet to win the Missile Stakes from five previous rides.

The closest Rawiller has come to snaring the Missile Stakes run under standard weight for age conditions over 1200m is third placings aboard Interfere in 2008 and Rolling Pin in 2012.

Posted as early favourite for the event, Rain Affair who won this race back in 2011 meets a handy line up including multiple G1 winner Hay List, a rejuvenated Mic Mac, Atomic Force and Oakleigh Plate winner Mrs Onassis.

That said Rain Affair does tick most of the boxes for the feature, most notably the prospect of a rain affected track, the gelding relishing wet ground with two wins from three starts on heavy, four from four on slow and three from five on dead.

With rain around the Sydney region, a dead to slow track looms as the most likely scenario and Rain Affair will have no issue with that.

The Joe Pride-trained sprinter has been luckless in his bid to win at group one level, such combatants as Black Caviar, Pierro, Your Song and All Too Hard all proving to be his nemesis thus far.

With all those gallopers now missing from the track, this afternoon Rain Affair begins a campaign that Pride hopes will lead to a group one win for his talented galloper, so it is imperative he gets off to a winning start.

Rain Affair has not raced since running unplaced in the G1 Doomben 10000 over 1350m behind Epaulette in May some 77 days ago, but he looked on track for a big run this afternoon winning a Randwick barrier trial by over nine lengths last week.

Interestingly Rawiller has ridden Rain Affair just once previously for a win but he also has a cracking 37% strike rate for the Joe Pride stable.

Despite not winning for 497 days prior to today, as mentioned above Rain Affair has faced off against some of the best sprinters in the world, so it is no surprise he has been winless for well over a year.

Despite that, Rain Affair still comes into today’s race with a master Timeform rating of 126, a figure if he runs anywhere close to, will ensure him victory.

The main danger looks to be Mic Mac, an eight-year-old who looks to regaining top form under Paul Messara.

After a break from the winner’s circle of almost four years, Messara got Mic Mac back to winning form taking the Listed Civic Stakes over 1350m two starts back, then last start followed it up with a game second over 1400m behind Under The Sun in the Listed Winter Stakes.

Yet to win at Randwick in five starts, Mic Mac also has to perform at his top when dropping back to 1200m.

I am not too concerned with that prospect because the small field will enable regular rider Christian Reith to get Mic Mac into a solid winning position for the long Randwick run home.

But realistically with a Timeform rated 116, only a significant below par effort by Rain Affair could see Mic Mac trouble that galloper for a win, but he is certainly a strong multiples play.

Hay List is the unknown. He has had plenty of issues in the last twelve months including a career threatening leg injury as well as a severe colic attack.

However against the odds, trainer John McNair has nursed him back to full health and a return to the track. But all cannot still be right with his feet as McNair has reported to Stewards that Hay List has had Synthetic Hoof Filler applied to its off fore hoof to assisting in the plating of the gelding.

Currently Timeform rated 111 against a one-time master Timeform number of 132, Hay List has a lot to find and his current performance level will be better assessed after this run.

Hay List last raced in the G1 T J Smith Stakes in April finishing tenth behind Black Caviar over 1200m at Randwick and pulling up in a distressed state.

G1 Oakleigh Plate winner Mrs Onassis has the form on the board but will not be suited by a rain affected track.

She has failed to produce her best on dead going so anything worse would be totally unsuitable which is worth keeping in mind for raceday.

The Gerald Ryan- trained mare has plenty of class but needs conditions to suit to show her best form.

Mrs Onassis resumed from a spell a month back at Caulfield in the Listed Monash Stakes over 1100m running almost 20 pounds below form behind Pago Rock when finishing in eighth place.

The dead going on that occasion was blamed for her average effort so she will need a firmer Randwick this afternoon before she can be considered a serious contender.

The other concern for Mrs Onassis is the 1200m. All her wins have come at distances shorter than 1200m, the mare registering just one placing from five starts at that distance.

The knock out horse could be Centennial Park from the David Payne stable. This galloper has an excellent record fresh up and finished second in the Missile Stakes last year behind Pinwheel.

Timeform rated 116, Centennial Park will be ridden by kiwi whiz kid James McDonald who will be having his first ride atop the Thorn Park gelding and his first ride in the Missile Stakes.

A late finisher, Centennial Park will be well suited should the early pace get frantic up front. He will not be hindered by a slow or dead racing surface and in fact that could be an advantage if the leaders are stopping.

If Rain Affair runs close to his master Timeform rating he has several pounds in hand over his rivals, but current indications are that he will trade short on Betfair. Any odds less than even money does not represent value.

Enjoy the race.