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Leading Sydney trainer Peter Snowden is closing in on his first Victoria Derby (2500m) win saddling up just his third runner, the outstanding colt Complacent, in this afternoon’s 159th classic renewal.
Snowden’s Victoria Derby record is impressive. While yet to win the race his two runners to date have filled the frame, Retrieve third in 2010 and the unlucky Induna narrowly beaten by Sangster in 2011.
It is fair to say Complacent has a superior chance to those two having a higher Timeform rating at 122p based on his outstanding group one Spring Champion Stakes win and also has superior form already being a group one winner. Retrieve in 2010 had run second in the Spring Champion Stakes as part of his lead up campaign and had also won the G2 Norman Robinson Stakes prior to his Derby third behind Lion Tamer.
It is interesting to see how differently Snowden has trained Complacent by comparison to his last two Derby contenders, both of whom had form in the major lead up races prior to the Derby, the Norman Robinson Stakes and Geelong Classic.
On this occasion Snowden has decided to go straight into the Derby after the Spring Champion Stakes without another run, something that has only been done once previously in the last 20 years by Monaco Consul in 2009.
Complacent will have a 21 day break leading into the Derby which is far from the norm, 19 of the past 20 Derby winners all racing within 14 days of their Victoria Derby wins, the exception being Monaco Consul in 2009 who had a break of 28 days prior to his Derby win.
All that aside, the wide barrier is likely to present more of a problem than fitness for the well bred son of Epsom Derby winner Authorized.
Complacent has shown dramatic improvement in this, his first preparation winning three of his five race appearances, the Spring Champion Stakes easily being his most impressive performance defeating a good line-up that included Saturday’s MC Vase winner Savvy Nature and Criterion.
At his start prior he has defeated Savvy Nature and Drago in the G3 Gloaming Stakes over 1800m at Rosehill.
Like Snowden, race rider Kerrin McEvoy ia also a Victoria Derby “maiden”, McEvoy having been runner up on four previous occasions, Induna (2011), Duelled (2005), Kempinsky (2003) and Hydrometer (2002). McEvoy will be keen to go one better this afternoon but it will require a ride from the top draw as he will need to navigate a precarious path from the wide draw.
There is always a question mark over whether these three-year-olds will get the 2500m Derby distance but if breeding counts, Complacent ticks all the boxes.
Snowden will also be represented by Norman Robinson runner up San Diego who has made rapid improvement in his Timeform ratings but will need to take another step today to match his more fancied stable mate.
The dangers are Norman Robinson winner Polanski and Savvy Nature.
There have been fewer more impressive winners of the Moonee valley Vase (2040m) than Savvy Nature last Saturday.
With blinkers fitted for the first time, he showed good acceleration to round up the opposition coming from last at the 800m to win eased down by three lengths, rating to 114 against his 116 in the Spring Champion Stakes.
However the quality of the opposition was questionable as reflected in his lower rating, not required to reproduce a new master figure.
Savvy Nature is another bred to handle the 2500m and although drawn awkwardly in 13, rider James McDonald will go back in any case as he did last Saturday.
The long Flemington straight will afford McDonald every opportunity to produce Savvy Nature at the right time.
Polanksi as the winner of the other major Derby lead up race, the Norman Robinson Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield, also comes right into contention.
The winner of three of his seven race starts, he has made sharp improvement since getting out to a middle distance trip winning over 1800m two starts back then more comfortably over 2000m last start when carrying a penalty.
In those two runs he took his rating from 93 to 116p and remains just a few pounds short of the five year average winning Timeform rating for the Derby.
Polanski looks open to make that improvement this afternoon. From his rails draw with Hugh Bowman in the saddle he rates as the best value in the race.
The David Payne-trained Criterion has excellent juvenile form over sprint distances but has taken time to reproduce it at three, albeit now over longer distances.
It was not until his third run back over 1500m in the Stan Fox Stakes that he produced something like his old form just going under to Eurozone running to 113. Then last time out registered a new master rating of 116 when a fast finishing second to Complacent in the Spring Champion Stakes.
He is another that has not raced for 21 days but on the positive side he looks open to more improvement and should make his presence felt.
Snowden’s other runner San Diego touched on briefly above has to be included amongst the chances although he has to find some to be counted a serious winning hope.
I am confident he will make further improvement as there was much to like about his game second to Polanski in the Norman Robinson Stakes where he had to do a lot of the bullocking work in the lead and was left exposed in the closing stages.