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In form juvenile Unencumbered looks to have the right credentials to win this afternoon’s Magic Millions 2YO Classic over 1200m on the Gold Coast.
The talented youngster has posted four wins from just five race starts and has captured both of the main lead up races to the Classic, the Wyong Magic Millions Classic (1100m) and the Bruce Mclachlan Stakes (1200m) at Doomben.
Both wins have indicated he has more to give than the bare 110 Timeform rating earned, the extra he will have to deliver this afternoon as the five year winning average Timeform rating for the Classic is 114.
The Classic history however is not in the colt’s favour as the last four renewals have resulted in a one-two-three finish for the girls who enjoy a weight allowance of 2 kilos, the last male to take the race was Phelan Ready in 2009.
That aside, the strength of the form from the fairer sex this year does appear to be slightly mixed but I will come to that a bit later.
On the flip side it is some years since a colt has contested the race with such dominant lead up performances.
In it’s short history, the McLachlan Stakes has been a good guide to the MM Classic, past winners such as Regimental Gal, Driefontein, Military Rose and Phelan Ready (the last male Classic winner) all using the race as their primary lead up, while several other Classic placings have also come through the race.
While the Wyong MM Classic has produced Gold Coast Classic winner Karuta Queen in 2011, no horse has been able to win all three, that is the two lead ups then then the Classic itself. In fact prior to Unencumbered no horse had at Wyong and Doomben enroute to the Gold Coast Classic.
On that score alone Unencumbered is indeed in unique territory. If he was to win this afternoon, he would have created a piece of his own history that may just stand for a while.
The McLachlan Stakes was run at break neck speed early thanks to Oakleigh Girl and Echo Gal who went out the first 600m at more than two seconds faster than standard pace, so it was no surprise that the off pace runners had the advantage in the last 600m.
Unencumbered was obviously favoured by the way the race was run but not as much as the backmarkers as he was just on the back of that frantic speed. Still he ambled up to the tiring pair on the home turn and soon had the race in his keeping from the late closers Stroak and Sagatona both of whom oppose him again today.
This afternoon’s Classic will be a capacity field of 16 and once again there looks to be good speed in the race, something that will again play to Unencumbered strengths. Drawn low in three, Nathan Berry will need the field to break up in order to negotiate a passage through but that seems the only negative to another success.
I am expecting the fillies Oakleigh Girl and Echo Gal to bounce back from their indifferent performances last time out while the closers Stroak and Sagatona might have to find extra if the tempo up front is not strong.
Another hometown Classic win would be welcomed by punters should Oakleigh Girl bounce back from her McLachlan failure. But if she runs to her prior form that is a real possibility.
Trained by Dan Bougoure, Oakleigh Girl burst to prominence during the Melbourne Cup carnival scorching down the Flemington straight 1000m course to win the G3 7News Stakes running to a Timeform rating of 107p.
Given a short 39 day let up Bougoure set his sights on the MM Classic, the filly having another warm over 1010m in Listed company around Doomben again winning comfortably.
Leading Melbourne rider Craig Newitt who was atop the filly at her debut was reunited with her for the McLachlan run and although she was used up early at her first try at 1200m, to her credit she battled on well just two lengths from the winner.
Drawn well this afternoon, I would expect Newitt to try and get a sit behind the speed rather than setting it, saving her for the last dash.
I have no issues with the 1200m and she only has to run to her best to be right in the finish.
The same argument applies to Echo Gal, although she has to find more on her ratings to figure.
Team Hawkes will be represented by the impressive Sydney debutante winner Invisible.
This colt had displayed above average ability in trials before racing and ran right up to that winning over 1200m at Canterbury defeating Jetwings and Caulfield winner Nordic Empire.
Ridden by James McDonald who will be atop the colt this afternoon, Invisible was never far from the lead in a fast run early sectional, yet he found plenty when asked for in the straight to score by almost a length running to a Timeform rating of 107p.
No doubt he will take plenty of improvement from the race but two factors working slightly against him are the slow overall race time of his debut win plus the fact he will be facing his stiffest challenge on foreign turf at just his second racetrack appearance.
Invisible is a most promising type but in the last 20 years of MM Classic renewals no juvenile has won the race at just their second race start.
The McLachlan Stakes placegetters, Stroak and Sagatona stay in the frame as definite prospects but both are drawn awkwardly and will most likely have to go back from those barriers to get cover. However should the race unfold as the McLachlan Stakes did, then they will be getting home better than most.
Cyclone is an interesting runner for the Waterhouse stable. Blake Shinn has been desperate to retain the ride after incurring a suspension and although his appeal has failed he has kept the mount as a prior booking to his appeal being heard.
The colt is a maiden and that in a historical sense is an issue. Since the first renewal in 1987 the race has only been won by a maiden twice, Phelan Ready (2009) and Dancer’s Joy (1990) but never by a colt, the former being a gelding.
On the positive side, both maiden winners came into the race at their third race start, exactly the state Cyclone presents in this afternoon.
Cyclone debuted with a handy third behind Unencumbered over 1000m on the Kensington then got involved in a rough house race at Rosehill finishing second after suffering severe interference.
Drawn perfectly in one, Cyclone is the knock out horse in the feature as he has considerable scope for improvement.
Enjoy another MM Classic