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Timeform Preview – 2015 Queen Elizabeth Stakes

3 minute read

A stellar line up of local and international horses will face the starter in this afternoon’s $4 million Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick – the second day of The Championships.

To The World set Queen Elizabeth Picture: Japan Racing Association

With ten of the thirteen runners already group one winners and several runners boasting strong international performances at that level, the 2015 renewal is shaping up as one of the strongest 2000m races run in Australia for some time.

Weight adjusted Timeform ratings suggest there will be little between the main chances headed by the Japanese star To The World.

However even after the scratching of Contributer he is unlikely to have things all his own way as fellow Japanese galloper Tosen Stardom, 2014 Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby winner Criterion and 2014 Cox Plate hero Adelaide will all stake claims for the richest prize of all over the Championships.

To The World came to Australia with a Timeform rating of 128 off his unlucky second behind champion Japanese mare Gentildonna in the Arima Kinen over 2400m at Nakayama last December.

Resuming in a foreign country after three months break, To The World tackled the G1 BMW over 2400m. After getting back early in the race he was forced to make a sustained run around the field, at least five deep on the home turn.

To The World actually headed he eventual winner, the former UK galloper Hartnell now prepared by John O’Shea, around the 350m mark but then faded on his run to be beaten just over a length.

To The World ran below form in the BMW rating 122 or six pounds below his master figure. This was not surprising as To The World looked very burly in the parade ring prior and there is no doubt he will improve considerably condition wise, this afternoon.

Despite To The World’s outstanding performance in the Arima Kinen, his form book suggests he is better at 2000m – a distance over which he was runner up in the Japanese Guineas behind crack galloper Isla Bonita.

Also a significant jockey change with Zac Purton now riding To The World could be a key factor in the outcome, Purton having had considerable success on Japanese horses in the past including the 2014 Caulfield Cup on Admire Rakti.

The only unknown for To The World is his ability to handle a significantly rain affected track, but as we saw with Real Impact last Monday, that may not be an issue. In addition King Kamehameka the sire of To The World has an excellent 16% strike rate with his progeny on rain affected ground.

That said To The World will need to bring his A game to Randwick if he is to hold out his rivals this afternoon.

Fellow Japanese runner Tosen Stardom will be out to atone for his defeat in the G1 Ranvet Stakes at his first Australian run.

In Japan when comparing their three-year-old records Tosen Stardom is not considered in the same league as To The World just yet - however he is a lightly raced son of Deep Impact who showed in the Ranvet that as a more mature galloper he is now rapidly catching up.

Tosen Stardom has raced just nine times for four wins and his Ranvet Stakes Timeform rating of 122 was his best performance to date. He should be able to improve on that again this afternoon.

With the likelihood of little pace in the race, it would not surprise if Tosen Stardom raced very prominently here – a scenario that could see him hard to get past as he was strong to the line in the Ranvet Stakes.

2014 G1 Cox Plate winner Adelaide is a classy animal and is the X Factor in the race.

Also lightly raced, Adelaide’s amazing last to first Cox Plate win was just his fourth career win from eight starts in five different countries.

Clearly a versatile galloper, Adelaide was left in the care of champion Sydney trainer Chris Waller with this race as his sole target before returning to Europe and Aiden O’Brien.

Although he will be attempting to win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at his first start since the Cox Plate, a break of 168 days, Adelaide usually has his runs spaced and Waller has been meticulous in his planning to have the entire as close to his top as possible.

Waller has given Adelaide race day exhibition gallops and two official barrier trials leading into today’s race but in a race of this quality there is no substitute for race fitness and that may come against Adelaide in the closing stages.

That said, if Adelaide can repeat his Cox Plate winning Timeform rating of 128, he should be well and truly in the frame.

The leading local contender is 2014 Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby winner Criterion.

Now with David Hayes and Tom Dabernig, Criterion has been in excellent form since his first run for the new team last December in the G1 Hong Kong Cup in which he was run down late by Designs On Rome running to a Timeform rating of 125.

In two runs this campaign Criterion has been in excellent form, running third in the G1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) and then just going down to Japanese galloper Real Impact in the G1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m).

Criterion gets to his correct distance this afternoon and he is now ready to peak. Craig Williams retains the mount and Criterion will relish any give in the ground.

Enjoy a great Queen Elizabeth Stakes renewal.