3 minute read
Brett Davis provides exclusive preview of Sha Tin races.
Rail - C Course
AWT - 1,4
Race 1
#1 DAILY TROPHY's only career victory to date came in a similar race to this towards the end of last season. He's got the benefit of race fitness, having already had a start this season, and he did pull up with mucus that day, so he had an excuse. The return to the dirt is a key benefit, as is the booking of Hugh Bowman, who is enjoying a terrific association with trainer Caspar Fownes this season. From a good barrier draw, he'll get every chance in the run and should go close.
#3 SMART LEADER is in his veteran years but he's still capable at this level. He's dropped in the ratings recently, he's got a good record in this grade and has performed well without winning on this surface. Purton retaining the ride is significant and he also has race fitness on his side after a competitive showing last time out. Look for him to make his presence felt.
#6 DIAMOND SOARS is likely to get the race run to suit up on the speed and on paper, there doesn't look to be a great deal of pace on in this contest. He's a fit horse, he wasn't beaten far last time out at Happy Valley, he has a decent record over this course and distance and is very well weighted thanks to Ellis Wong's claim.
#4 SPANGLE FORTUNE gets the crucial drop into class five, he's drawn well and is capable of taking up a handy spot in the run, which is an advantage on this surface. He's also got a proven liking for this surface. This is his first start this season though and he's only had one recent barrier trial, so he could be vulnerable from a fitness point of view.
#7 SUPER JOY's statistics on this surface are terrific and he did win a similar race to this in April. He is likely to get back in the field though and there doesn't look to be too much pace on in the race, so he's going to need a lot of luck to be able to run up to his best.
Selections: 1,3,6,4,7
R2 - 6,3,2,8,1
R3 - 5,2,3,7,1
R4 - 9,3,1,4,12
Race 5
#2 FIGHTING MACHINE looks very hard to beat and is one of the better bets on the program. He's a very consistent horse from a top stable and has the leading jockey, Zac Purton, retaining the ride. He ran well last time out when he was second to Amazing Run and should have improved for the outing. He's been knocking on the door for a win for a while and the addition of blinkers for the first time could be that key winning ingredient. 1400m is his perfect trip and he appears very well placed to get a deserved victory here.
#11 TAKE ACTION is a young horse from John Size's stable whose first up run from a long break was better than what it looks on paper. He got a long way back that day but closed off well and will appreciate stepping up in distance to 1400m, while he'll also have taken a great deal of improvement for that trip to the races. He's got a good lightweight jockey aboard in Alexis Badel, he's in good hands with Size as his trainer, is likely to be coming home strongly and shouldn't be as far back this time around.
#12 AFFIRM put in a creditable performance first up last time out, sticking on well to finish fourth after he received a bit of pressure out in front. He's been super consistent and deserves a win, while the addition of cheekpieces could bring out that extra bit of necessary improvement that's required. His racing pattern will also assist him here, as the rail is out in the C position, favouring an on-speed horse like him. On top of that, he's only got a light weight to carry, so he won't be easy for his rivals to run down.
#7 MR ENERGIA is a fascinating runner as he showed a really good turn of foot to win last time out and has the benefit of having had a run under his belt this season. My question is: was that improved performance due to him racing on the dirt for the first time or because he had the blinkers on for the first time? My gut feeling is it was the dirt but we will get a better indication after this race. Nevertheless, he's likely to get back again from a wide draw and will be doing his best work late.
#1 MAJESTIC COLOUR has the all important class drop for his new stable and will also appreciate switching back to the turf and stepping up in distance, following his first up run on the dirt.
Selections: 2,11,12,7,1
R6 - 2,6,1,5,10
Race 7
#1 BOTTOMUPTOGETHER is unbeaten from his three runs last season where he was very impressive. He looks to be a rising star of the sprinting ranks and was very good in a recent trial, where he beat all bar California Spangle, one of the world's best sprinters. The wide draw and the topweight look obvious concerns but he's got the speed to cross over, lead and kick away, getting his season off to the perfect start. He's the horse we're going to be talking about after this meeting.
#2 RUBYLOT is the main danger to the short priced favourite Bottomuptogether and finished off last season in great fashion, winning two of his last three starts. He appears to have come back well this preparation, judging from his barrier trials, while the booking of Hugh Bowman and a decent draw in gate two are other positive factors. He's sure to have a good season but I think he lacks the upside or ability of Bottomuptogether and it's more of a case of he's simply going to be the best of the rest this time around.
#6 GOKO WIN hasn't been with Douglas Whyte's stable for too long and I think he can find a few more rating points with the new stable. I like the form that he brings behind Packing Hermod, he's got a good barrier, a fairly light weight on his back and has won a recent barrier trial at Conghua. It might be a bridge too far for him to win this, but he should be thereabouts at the finish.
#9 SUPER FORTUNE is a last start winner stepping up in class. He has the minimum weight to carry, will be ridden by an in form Matthew Poon, he's fit and will make his own luck up on the speed. He's one to consider for the place or the exotics.
#8 ELEGANT LIFE really caught my eye the way that he attacked the line first up, getting home very strongly over the last 200m. That was just his second start in Hong Kong, so with further racing and time to acclimatise, he's open to greater improvement. I feel that he's going to be better suited over 1400m but a repeat of his last run could see him as a place hope and mark him as a horse to follow.
Selections: 1,2,6,9,8
R8 - 8,2,4,6,1
R9 - 7,6,8,2,13
R10 - 2,3,9,8,6