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15:10 Bath 10 Oct 2024 – British Stallion Studs EBF Beckford Stakes, Fillies' & Mares' Listed | Class 1 | 3YO plus 1m6f
In what looks set to be a stamina-sapping, heavy ground 1m6f Listed Beckford Stakes at Bath on Thursday, the key to solving the equation seems to be identifying which of the eleven will stay the trip, and which go well in the mud.
Marie's Rock - Nicky Henderson's dual Grade 1 winning hurdler - could be the answer. She is more than entitled to improve, having dwelt in the stalls at York when Group 3 Bronte Cup. The form of the race is working out well, with winner Term of Endearment subsequently taking the 1m6f Group 2 Lily Langtry Stakes at Goodwood and third-placed River of Stars finishing second in the 1m6f Group 1 Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp last weekend. The trip is unlikely to cause an issue, with the mare proven to stay three miles with ease over hurdles. The only question mark, however, is whether she truly fires in the mud, after being pulled up in last season's Grade 1 Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on heavy ground This is a race that has historically been targeted by National Hunt trainers, with Willie Mullins picking up the prize in 2018's renewal - Nicky Henderson is following a well-established route here.
Lmay and Fairy Glen are vying for favouritism at the head of the market, with both currently priced up around the 100/30 mark. The case for the former is a clear and obvious one – she sets the benchmark on official ratings. A creditable fourth behind Group 3 winning Tiffany in the Group 2 Von Zastrow Fillies Stakes at Baden-Baden, her real appeal lies within her electric performance to take second in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot earlier in the campaign. In her only run on ground worse than good to soft, she ran on well to claim third in the 1m6f Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster. There has to be some concerns regarding the form of the Gosden yard and she may not represent value at the top of the market with this in mind.
A soft surface represents a total unknown for Fairy Glen, but this could prove to be her making. By Farhh, who won on soft, Simon and Ed Crisford's filly seemed to relish the extended trip at Longchamp in a Listed event last time out. Only narrowly headed by a Coolmore hotpot, this could prove to be a step into calmer waters for a really progressive type.
Ralph Beckett's Forest Fairy started the season as a Cheshire Oaks winner, going to Epsom with a live chance of landing Classic glory. While the figures in the book may imply that her form has dropped off somewhat as the year has progressed, one can almost entirely discount her Lancashire Oaks eighth, given that the meeting was subsequently abandoned due to an unfit racing surface. Being very lightly campaigned, it wouldn't be wholly surprising to see her bounce back with a bang after a break in what is a definitive drop in class. Her sire, Waldgeist, was a winner of a very soft ground Arc de Triomphe, so she is certainly bred for conditions.
Loughville, for Hollie Doyle and Alan King, boasts an unblemished record around Bath, winning here over one mile and two furlongs back in April. Likewise, she scores highly on the going, winning twice and placing once in soft and heavy conditions. Whether she has the stamina for the occasion, however, remains to be seen.
Of the outsiders, There's The Door makes the most appeal. A useful performer in the mud, having won two valuable handicaps and Goodwood and Doncaster in similar conditions, she may have to up her game to make her presence felt at this level.
WIN – MARIE'S ROCK
PLACE – FOREST FAIRY