Historical Analysis of the Emirates Stakes

3 minute read

Historical Analysis of the Emirates Stakes

EMIRATES STAKES - G1 1600m

Rarely should you bother backing one in the market in the Emirates Stakes. So many roughies with nothing more so than Tears I Cry who won at 100-1 for his young trainer and enthusiastic owner in ’08. Find out what stats may contribute to these big priced winners.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Lindsay Park won it five times in a row from 1992 to 1996. And again recently.

o Don’t think there is a race on the calendar where you get more consistent pace on all the way as this race.

o Testa Rossa win with 59kg in ’00 is the biggest weight to win since Family of Man in ’78.

o Wide gates have not been a hindrance to victory.

o Not that many horses go into the Emirates off resounding form - hence the big price nature of the winners.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo/5yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner – 53.5kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $27

o Breakdown of winners - 5 geldings, 2 mares & 1 entires

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Chatham Stks (3), Crystal Mile (1), Cox Plate (2), Myer Classic (1), Moonga Stks (2), Rst89 (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2013 - BOBAN 4g (Bernadini x Kenbelle) ($4.50 fav)

Jockey: Glyn Schofield, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 3, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.58

Margin: 0.2L, Track: Dead (4), Starters: 13

2nd: Smokin’ Joey (52.5kg), 3rd: Speediness (55.0kg)

Review: Rarely has a horse been so transformed from one season to the next. A 1400m Listed race on this very day last year saw Boban run at 20-1 and be beaten 6.5L into 11th spot. By day’s end 2013, he was considered in the top 5 horses in the nation. After going unbeaten in Sydney with a sensational Epsom win, then as good a Moonga effort at Caulfield, he came to Flemington with 57kg on his back and the history that no Epsom winner had won this mile since Chanteclair in 86. However this horse was low flying. He raced midfield from the good draw but then was a touch flat footed when they amped it up. What rivals couldn’t match was his last furlong when he stuck his head out like he did at Randwick. Waller could train a broomstick at the moment.

2012 - HAPPY TRAILS 5g (Good Journey x Madame Flurry) ($13)

Jockey: Damien Oliver, Trainer: Paul Beshara

Barrier: 9, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.99

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Dead, Starters: 16

2nd: Fawkner (56.5kg), 3rd: Secret Admirer (57.0kg)

Review: What a darn good neddy Happy Trails had become. He was solid during the Autumn without winning including a cracker in the Doncaster but was always giving away too much ground. This prep he learned how to get out of the gates better and if anything this was the furthest back he got in a race. Off the Cox Plate without luck, he was forced to be wide with cover as Oliver tracked the cart up. Fawkner dived through and Secret Admirer looked home but even with the weight he poked his head out to win. Oliver’s fate was yet to be sealed by officialdom.

2011 - ALBERT THE FAT 7g (Magic Albert x Alemar) ($17)

Jockey: Mark Zahra, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 9, Weight: 54.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.05

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: King’s Rose (53.0kg), 3rd: Secret Admirer (54.0kg)

Review: There was good pace on as usual with Toorak Toff running them along, it was left to the backmarkers, most of them the Cox Plate entrants. King’s Rose and Secret Admirer were looking at being the ones but then Albert tacked onto the Moody mare’s rump and nabbed her in the last stride. Mark Zahra was very excited giving him his first Melbourne G1.