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Historical Analysis of the Missile Stakes
First of the feature WFA sprints for the new season is the Missile Stakes. Previously predominantly run at Rosehill, it has been swapped around recently with the amalgamation of the clubs. But for an event run at this time of year, some elite horses have taken the prize.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Previously 1100m at Rosehill has been at 1200m since 2010 and now at Randwick.
o While 2yos can and have run, Commands and Guineas are the only 2yos to win in 20 years (not applicable now with race run in August).
o Smallish fields have plagued this race so barriers haven’t been so important.
o Pompeii and Teasing were the only mares to win since 1994 before Sweet Idea. Ironically Klokka and Joanne won the four runnings from ’91 onwards.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 7yos (4 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $6.80 (hard in the market horses won five in a row before Burbero)
o Breakdown of winners - 7 geldings, 2 mares & 1 entire.
o Winner’s Lead Up Races - Ramornie Hcp (2), Stradbroke Hcp (1), June Stks (1), Takeover Target Stks (1), Lightning Stks (EF) (1), Other (1), July Sprint (1), Spell (2)
RECENT WINNERS
Barrier: 6, Weight: 58.5kg, Gross Time: 1:09.13
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 82nd: Weary (58.5kg), 3rd: Temple Of Boom (58.5kg)
Review: On a day when there were many horses to lead all the way, the feature race saw the winner come from last.
Burbero had graduated to winning an Ajax Stakes in the Autumn and then spelled before a top run first up. He got back to last when racing back at Randwick and with the pace on set by the stable mate Zaratone, he was still ten lengths away at the bend.
But once they got tired up front he weaved a passage under his kiwi rider and unleashed a fast final sectional.
Barrier: 7, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:09.44
Margin: 0.2L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 92nd: Messene (58.5kg), 3rd: Rebel Dane (58.5kg)
Review: There had been question marks over last season’s 3yos but it was a good start to the new season for one of them to win at WFA against a very good field.
All bar two of the field had been racing at The Championships and most were G1 winners so it was classy. Strangely enough two who weren’t G1 winners ran the quinella. Gai’s mare led from Thump with the other favourites right behind after Boban missed the start.
Berry controlled the race and she kept on kicking. They all had their chances but she is tough. Boban and Kirramosa were great running on.
2013 - RAIN AFFAIR 6g (Commands x I Believe) ($1.30 fav)
Jockey: Nash Rawiller, Trainer: Joe PrideBarrier: 4, Weight: 58.5kg, Gross Time: 1:10.83
Margin: 5.5L, Track: Slow (7), Starters: 62nd: Mic Mac (58.5kg), 3rd: Title (58.5kg)
Review: Rain Affair won this two years ago but strangely this was his first win in his last ten runs.
Not that he’d run poorly in many of them but he’d run into the likes of all the top 3yos as well as Black Caviar. The 2013 race was no contest. With Hay List’s pre-race scratching, the competitive nature came out.
He jumped a length in front and kept improving the position. Even with Randwick’s recent lack of respect for front runners could not halt him.
Remember this famous Flag Start in the 1984 Missile Stakes