Historical Analysis of the Railway Stakes

3 minute read

Historical Analysis of the Railway Stakes

RAILWAY STAKES - G1 1600m

The Railway Stakes provides a great end to the year but can be controversial. Perth’s richest race goes back to the 1880s and again this year draws together several good locals looking to repel a much larger than normal interstate brigade after that $1m purse.

That interest from Eastern States had waned for a while considering a horse like Better Loosen Up won during his assent to the throne.

The champ Northerly won this race near the limit before heading east. Find out more about these warriors from the West.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Weights are the key stats here with 56.5kg (Sniper’s Bullet) being the biggest weight carried since the metric system came in before Luckygray (58kg) scored in remarkable circumstances in 2013.

o Inside barriers have usually been a definite advantage, especially considering the pace, the likelihood of a fast track and the large field size.

o Don’t want to give away much start around this small track. Gathering, Good Project, Scales Of Justice and Great Shot led all the way.

o Mares won back to back with Belle Bizarre and Covertly but it was a long time before that when Miss Muffett won in (’87). Elite Belle got things back on track.

o 4yos have won 24 of the last 59 Railways.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 53.5kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $13.50

o Breakdown of winners - 8 geldings, 1 entire & 1 mare

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Lee Steere Stks (3), Peters Stks (2), Asian Beau Stks (1), Crystal Mile Stks (1), Emirates Stks (1), BM90 (1), Spell (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2017 - GREAT SHOT 5g (Magnus x Stain Covers) ($31)

Jockey: Craig Staples, Trainer: Rhys Radford

Barrier: 8, Weight: 53.5kg, Gross Time: 1:35.81

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 16

2nd: Black Heart Bart (59.0kg), 3rd: Tom Melbourne (55.0kg)

Review: This was an upset in all forms. While there were some very good interstaters, the locals were given some hope but no one mentioned Great Shot as one of those. He had been in good form but not winning them. In some ways he was under the odds at 30s.

The one benefit Great Shot had was being a leader as he made it three years in a row for the front runners. The trouble for him looked to be that he had Tom Melbourne on his tail and Black Heart Bart winding up. You wanted to look at them but the local gelding kept kicking and he got the bob in.

2016 - SCALES OF JUSTICE 4g (Not A Single Doubt x Beymatilla) ($9)

Jockey: Douglas Whyte, Trainer: Lindsey Smith

Barrier: 8, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.13

Margin: 3L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 16

2nd: Good Project (55.0kg), 3rd: Perfect Reflection (54.5kg)

Review: For the second year in a row, a light weight led all the way. They were both by Not A Single Doubt and won with similar ease. After winning the week before in the RJ Peters, he got into the race with the addition of the great Dougie Whyte.

He rolled to the front with no pressure and controlled the race. Coming to the turn you were looking for challengers like the Waller pair racing close by but while the favourites chased late, they got nowhere near the winner. In running positions were more important than barriers.

2015 - GOOD PROJECT 4h (Not A Single Doubt x Euchre) ($6)

Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Chris Waller

Barrier: 11, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:34.52

Margin: 2L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 14

2nd: Messene (56.5kg), 3rd: Balmont Girl (53.0kg)

Review: Many thought Good Project had no form behind him and had only contested one Group race in his career before running in the Railway. But how do you underestimate Chris Waller. This was his 10th G1 before Christmas.

Williams had ridden a Railway winner from the front before but few thought this one would lead. That said there was no pace in the race and the track was favouring leaders. He rolled onto the speed and controlled it.

Held together on the bend, he allowed Messene out but it didn’t matter. He had a margin to spare on the line with the other favoured runners like Delicacy and Real Love left to chase too hard for too long.