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Historical Analysis of the Doncaster Mile
DONCASTER MILE - G1 1600m
The Doncaster Mile is certainly the signature race at Randwick even accounting for the Derby. Whatever its name, new or old, it is one hell of a contest and has seen some of the all-time greats succeed.
From the old days of Chatham, through brothers Fine & Dandy and Time & Tide to Tobin Bronze, Gunsynd and Maybe Mahal. Then to modern day heroes like the incomparable Super Impose, Sunline, Private Steer, Racing to Win and More Joyous.
It is always a classic contest between the older neddies and charging 3yos who won three in a row recently and again in 2013 & 2015. None better than Winx as well.
PROFILING THE RACE
o Barriers mean absolutely nothing in this race. The mile start at Randwick is the best in Australia. If anything it might be better to draw out, have cover in transit then sweep into the race on the bend.
o Many recent winners have been on pace. Certainly the 3yo victors were forward in the run although Sacred Falls came from near last twice.
o Glen Boss dominated for a while - 5 of the last 15 times he weighed in first plus Sprint By in ’96. And he was second often, splitting his chain of wins.
o 15 of the last 36 editions have been won by the 3yos. Sunline was the last filly though to win in ’99.
o The outright favourites have done well recently but as a measure of the type of betting race it is, you still get better than 3-1 all of them aside from Winx who was shortest for a long time.
o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 5yo (3 times)
o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.5kg
o Last 10 Years - 7 double figured barrier draws
o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $11
o Breakdown of winners - 4 geldings, 2 colts, 1 entire & 3 mares
o Races that the winner ran in prior - George Ryder Stks (5), Ranvet Stks (2), Queen Of The Turf Stks (1), Rosehill Guineas (1), Ajax Stks (1).
RECENT WINNERS
2018 - HAPPY CLAPPER 7g (Teofilo x Busking) ($5)
Jockey: Blake Shinn, Trainer: Pat WebsterBarrier: 1, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:33.17
Margin: 2.0L, Track: Good (4), Starters: 162nd: Comin’ Through (51.5kg), 3rd: Arbeitsam (50.0kg)
Review: Sometimes horses are just great at their home track. Randwick has many a hero and Happy Clapper was finally getting his due reward.
Carrying the big weight, even more kudos to him. He was giving some good horses plenty of it and he beat them all. Barrier one helped to put him into the right spot on a day when the track liked those near the fence.
While Kementari was being held up, Shinn took inside runs and put a gap on those needing luck. D’Argento was huge from the back but all reward to the big gelding who did the big Randwick double that not too many have ever done.
Barrier: 8, Weight: 55.0kg, Gross Time: 1:39.17
Margin: 0.5L, Track: Heavy (8), Starters: 202nd: Happy Clapper (55.5kg), 3rd: Sense Of Occasion (52.5kg)
Review: Godolphin had been having a poor run. Their younger horses hadn’t been winning much and earlier in the day had struggled when favourites. Even in the Doncaster, It’s Somewhat was considered the outsider of their team but they had a great rider in Purton.
The day was for leaders but as this gelding was considered little chance, he was treated by the riders as a lure. Without pressure he just got into his rhythm.
On the bend Purton went for home and only last year’s runner up Happy Clapper looked a chance. He made up great ground but not enough. The result surprised many including John O’Shea.
2016 - WINX 4m (Street Cry x Vegas Showgirl) ($1.80 fav)
Jockey: Hugh Bowman, Trainer: Chris WallerBarrier: 11, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:35.27
Margin: 2L, Track: Slow (6), Starters: 152nd: Happy Clapper (50.5kg), 3rd: Azkadellia (50.0kg)
Review: Chris Waller was making a habit of winning this race with six of the last nine runnings going his way including the last four. But this was special coming from the best horse he’s trained.
Winx was not expected to run in the Doncaster with the Queen Elizabeth her seeming main target. But after her spectacular Ryder victory and the weight she was given, they were almost obliged to run.
It was 51 weeks earlier that she last lost a race in the Oaks but this was perhaps her best. She didn’t seem to like the going and at the half mile was in trouble back near the rear. Up the rise Bowman shoved a few out of the way.
With Azkadellia level inside and Happy Clapper level outside, she had to strive hard but that class edge told and she surged away from the light weights. What a win!