3 minute read
We preview the first of the Spring majors- who will take out the Caulfield Cup?
A compressed and perhaps slightly thin Caulfield Cup this year, but I'm keen to bet and think we can have a good crack.
Looking at the speed, it should be on early with Deny Knowledge and Eliyass drawn wide and both pushing on from Sayedaty Sadaty kicking up from the inside and Duke De Sessa right there.
On our weight-adjusted ratings, Deny Knowledge brings the highest last start rating into this field. She ran to 116 on the Timeform scale last week and with 50.5kg she rates very well, but last week did seem like her perfect storm.
She got an easy lead on a firm, fast deck and now out to 2400m with plenty more pressure, I can't get her as short as she is in early markets and think she probably regresses just a touch. have her marked $13.
My clear favourite is Buckaroo, who even with 54.5kg comes in as the second-highest last start rating. His last three Timeform ratings have come in at 118, 122 and 123, and I have no issues with him out to 2400m.
He's been the fastest last 400m and 200m of his past two starts over 2000m and while he had a better run than Deny Knowledge in the Underwood, he did put a hole in them. His Turnbull Stakes run was outstanding, taking Via Sistina going to her absolute best to beat him, and he came from behind that horse to head her in the straight.
The ratings he's running are bang in line with Caulfield Cup winners to carry similar weights in year's past, and this looks a weaker edition. The draw is perfect for him, he's handled wet tracks overseas no worries and I think he's a genuine $4 chance, if not a bit shorter.
Eliyass was good in the Turnbull and is progressive but had a very good run on speed and while he was only 1.5 lengths off Buckaroo, he was only 0.4 lengths ahead of Duke De Sessa. I have him marked $10.
The Metropolitan form is right in the mix, and of the quinella, I think Zardozi has enough in her favour to be shorter than Land Legend. She meets him 3kg better at the weights for what very easily could've been her race on protest. Land Legend does get Zac Purton on which is worth plenty, but I fancy he could be a better Flemington chance.
Zardozi ran to 117 with Timeform last start which puts her right in the game here. She might need a slight new career peak but her three career peaks have come at 2400m+ so it's not unreasonable to suggest she could elevate again. I have her marked $9 so there's no real edge, but she is second favourite in my market.
Of all the others in the field, I think Muramasa might be the best roughie. Class is the concern and strictly speaking his raw ratings aren't good enough to win this, but he'll relish getting to 2400m and did run quite a good rating at the weights with 60kg last time.
He can improve again and did thump Duke De Sessa over 2600m last year which reads fairly well now. He gets a sweet draw and Daniel Moor comes into ride him having partnered him when he was flying last year. I have him marked $19 and there's 50-1 available.
The horse I'm against, not just because his name is too hard to say, is Sayedaty Sadaty. He's rated to a peak of 112 with Timeform which is below a horse like Valiant King last year who had the same profile as a 3yo colt with 50kg. Constantinople came over here rated much higher a few years ago and was also beaten. I have Sayedaty Sadaty marked more like a $41 chance, while the aforementioned Valiant King could be an improver and you'll probably get 100-1.
In summary, Buckaroo is very clearly on top and I think the price is fair. His ratings profile is very strong, I've got no issue with him running 2400m and the map is ideal. Zardozi is my second pick and a genuine threat while Eliyass and Deny Knowledge have claims but I think they're a bit short. Muramasa the best roughie.
Caulfield Cup 2024 Tips
Best bet: #2 Buckaroo
Danger: #13 Zardozi
Roughie: #12 Muramasa