3 minute read
The feature of the Queensland Winter takes place on Saturday with the Stradbroke Handicap.
A Stradbroke perhaps lacking the absolute top-end talent, but a strong betting race and one where the market has latched firmly onto the royal blue of VILANA.
He's has run in the past two Stradbroke's and will go into Saturday's on the quick turnaround with his best hope yet.
In 2022 he won the Group 3 Fred Best Classic (1400m) running to 107 on the R&S rating scale carrying 50.5kg as a $13 chance but struggling.
Last year he was coming off ratings of 111 and 110 at Group 1 level when back in the field behind Giga Kick and Think About It. He was poorly weighted last year with 56kg and finished 10th, but still ran to 113 as a $21 chance.
This year he's coming off a career peak rating of 121 with a dominant win last week in the Group 2 Moreton Cup (1200m). He ripped home in some big splits there which looks an ideal platform to perform on the backup and out to 1400m.
Since 2000, the average winning rating of the Stradbroke is bang on 119. In that time, there have been no horses (excluding three-year-olds, who naturally get in much lighter) to have run to 119 and carry under 53.5kg.
Put simply, if Vilana runs to what he did last Saturday, it'll take a pretty big performance to knock him off.
The other horse in the field that fits that criteria is AMENABLE, who ran to 119 two starts back when second to Magic Time in the Group 1 All Aged Stakes (1400m). He was 50-1 that day but it wasn't out of the blue with two ratings prior of 115.
He was good again last start without much luck in the Listed Luskin Star Stakes (1300m), giving 6kg away to the placegetters and now gets in with 53kg, meeting Magic Time 4.5kg better at the weights.
Magic Time herself is very good with a rating of 121 in that All Aged win but was a long way off them last start in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m), with being galloped on offered as the excuse.
The highest rated on raw numbers is (rightfully) the topweight, Bella Nipotina. We have her past two starts running to 123, both at Group 1 level. 1400m on a dry deck, giving away 3kg (5 at WFA) to horses like Vilana and Amenable will make things tough.
Pretty happy to bet into the Stradbroke. I'm not heavily into weights, but I think Bella Nipotina and Magic Time will struggle to give weight away to some smart males when the ratings say they're only a few pounds superior.
Vilana hits this beautifully placed and looks a rightful favourite. Amenable is the danger and if you wanted a roughie, Prince Of Boom was much better last start and might be back on track. He gets in well at the weights and although 1400m is the obvious query, he can give some cheek if left alone.
STRADBROKE HANDICAP TIPS
Best bet: #6 Vilana at $5.50
Also backing: #10 Amenable at $11