3 minute read
The second of The Pinnacles Group Ones takes place this Saturday with the Winterbottom Stakes boasting an outstanding honour roll.
The likes of Miss Andretti, Takeover Target, Buffering and Ortensia sit amongst the winners of the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes (1200m), Western Australia's premier sprint race.
In time, The Quokka might have something to say about that but it's its infancy, the Winterbottom is king, and that is the perfect segue into this year's favourite.
Overpass won the inaugural The Quokka and ventures West again, looking to become the first Quokka/Winterbottom double winner and will be well fancied to do so, getting in as short as $2.40 with TABtouch but now back out to $3.
He ran to 119 on the Timeform scale on that occasion, holding off the fast-finishing Amelia's Jewel and the ever-consistent mares Bella Nipotina and Asfoora.
That race seemingly looks stronger on paper than this year's Winterbottom, and that's reflected in the betting. Overpass was a trendy, decently supported $12 chance in The Quokka and is on track to start in the red on Saturday.
He's run second to Giga Kick and Think About It in two of his three runs since, meaning his past four starts average rating is 118.75 so the shorter price seems absolutely justified, but the opposition is a big part of that.
The other fancied raider is Triple Missile, who started his career in Perth with three straight wins, looking a Winterbottom horse in the making early days.
He's since been campaigning in Melbourne for two wins. His peak Timeform rating is 111 which came first up at Flemington behind Star Patrol, but it's still a fair ways off what Overpass is capable, and his racing pattern often means he needs luck.
The three-year-olds headline the local defence of the Winterbottom, which has traditionally been the hardest of the three Group Ones for the locals to retain.
Graceful Girl and Elite Street have won two of the past three running's but prior to that, interstate raiders won five straight, and again took honours last year with Paulele.
We also haven't seen a three-year-old win the race in over 20 years- the last to do it was Hardrada in 2002.
Oscar's Fortune and Ripcord are out to change that having run the quinella in the Listed Placid Ark Stakes (1200m) last time out. Ripcord came from a seemingly hopeless position in run whereas Oscar's Fortune led, but the sectionals will show that Oscar's Fortune was arguably the better run, earning a rating of 104+ with Timeform.
The + says that the tempo was too strong and he went too hard early, giving a tremendous kick in the straight.
Even if you allow a couple of pounds for an unevenly run race, Oscar's Fortune, and Ripcord for that matter, would still have to improve a minimum of 12 pounds to be troubling Overpass running to his Quokka figure, which he has run better than twice in his past three.
That's not impossible, especially for relatively unexposed three-year-olds, but it's a fair leap to make.
I think the best pointer to Overpass' true price is a very similarly rated Trekking who came over in 2020 and started $1.75.
His peak Timeform rating was 123, one pound higher than Overpass, and had run to 116-117-117 at his three runs prior (Overpass 122-122-112).
Overpass, other than being clearly the highest rated horse in the field, has two added benefits. One, he's already proven he can travel West and win at Ascot, and he does things the right way- on speed.
Whereas Trekking was a backmarker and suspect to all of the positional hindrances that may occur, Overpass will be somewhere on speed and giving himself every opportunity to run his rating.
If anything, one could argue Overpass should be shorter than what Trekking was, and it seems strange to me that he hasn't firmed further. If people are being put off by a wide barrier- don't be. The Ascot 1200m is plenty fair for those with wide gates, and he's drawn inside other speed influences Oscar's Fortune, Phanta and Snowdome.
$3 with TABtouch about Overpass looks awfully good betting and will be the best result of The Pinnacles.
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