3 minute read
Always one of the best races of the Spring, the Turnbull defines moving day.
The idea behind moving day is that you need to be running well here to be any chance in a Spring major, and that holds true for a few of these.
Via Sistina certainly fits that mould. There was no doubt about how well she'd come back, running to 119+ on the Timeform scale first up in the Winx Stakes, but she was well off that last start.
Excuses can be made for that run in the Makybe Diva. She was off a sit and sprint fresh, smack into a fast run mile on a deteriorating, hail-ridden Flemington track, which would be a shock to the system for anyone.
Go back to her Ranvet Stakes win first-up in Australia, where she's run to 121+, and she just about wins this race.
Some will say her best form has come off slow tempos, and in Australia that is true, but her overseas form says she can and should handle a proper race. She's run to ratings either side of 120 in anything faster than she's likely to find on Saturday, and getting to 2000m third-up, Waller should have her primed.
The competition is there though. Buckaroo was excellent winning the Underwood Stakes last time out, running to 122, one pound shy of Via Sistina's peak rating.
A few in the market didn't show up there but the pace was genuine and he put up a rating the others would've struggled to match regardless. Pace-wise, he was in the perfect spot there, got to the wider lanes on the track and it feels like, to me, that was his birthday.
Via Sistina has a bulk of ratings at 2000m that match and better Buckaroo and while she's coming off a flop, we're getting the price to back her.
Speaking of coming off a flop, Place Du Carrousel struggled in the Underwood fresh, but I loved the market support. At the set weights here, her expected rating last start is through the roof.
That might mean nothing, but I think she'll come on plenty from that and her best ratings, while a few pounds off Via Sistina, are mighty competitive in this and she does get 2kg off that horse.
Eliyass faces his toughest test and continues to improve. He's rated 117 and profiling well. He's short enough in this, priced up alongside the ones rated 5-6 pounds higher than him. Those 5-6 pounds, at this level, aren't easy to find. Gee he'd have been well-placed in the Listed Metropolitan Handicap (2400m) in Sydney…
Keen to bet here. The market has overreacted to Via Sistina's flop last start. She can bounce back in a big way, as can Place Du Carrousel. Backing them both.