3 minute read
We touch on all three Group Ones on an outstanding final day of the Flemington carnival.
Sprint
Great to see a handful of horses down from Sydney and through The Everest, creating a stacked field with plenty of betting angles.
Bella Nipotina has to be the starting point in the race. She was tough as ever winning The Everest before backing it up with a dominant win last week in the Russel Balding Stakes, sitting just off a strong tempo and blitzing them.
She comes here as the highest rated horse and that is underpinned by her outstanding consistency, but the little fly in the ointment is her ratings and record at Flemington.
She's run some good races down the straight, but her best ratings are around six pounds off her peak. That said, she's coming here in career best form off back-to-back 123 wins which takes a lot of beating.
Giga Kick was excellent in The Everest and was only third-up there off a long break so there's every chance he can improve slightly again. There's very little between them and it comes down to the market giving you a price about either.
Speaking of the market, they've backed Overpass which I can understand. He's run to ratings of 122 at his past couple and was dominant winning in quicker time than The Everest in the Sydney Stakes.
He's three weeks between runs here which is probably fresh enough and quick ground with a potential tailwind, he's capable of running very fast time and proving very hard to run down. With the main dangers drawn away from the pace, there's every chance he slips away.
As good as Bella is, I'll be backing Overpass and Giga Kick who just set up a bit better.
Mile
Outstanding field. Could make a good case for most and at around $5.50 the field, you'll be rewarded for backing a top horse at good odds.
The set up is key here, and I have to be against those coming through the Cox Plate. We haven't had a real test of the form yet – Kovalica was solid in the Melbourne Cup but dropping back to a mile off that race is a query.
The biggest query is Melham replacing Bates on Pride Of Jenni, and the story is surely that she'll be going slower, which is a dangerous game to be playing with her.
She's obviously good enough but has had a lot of hard racing in the past few weeks and now riding her softer, she could be done for the prep.
I like Fangirl here given that I think Jenni won't go at her usual pace, which is what Fangirl hates. She's got the best turn of foot in the race and if they do run this at a speed she's comfortable at, she's easily talented enough to win.
The one I'm heavily against is Antino who was awesome in the Toorak but it feels a real one in a hundred type of scenario that I don't think he'll ever repeat.
Mr Brightside is tough and can win while Broadsiding was very good in the Cox Plate, but I like the fresh legs of Fangirl is a scenario that could suit her best.
Stakes
All comes down to price here with Via Sistina and on her last-start rating she's incredibly far over the odds at $1.60. She ran a RAS rating of 132 last start which is Winx territory, and off that she's a genuine $1.10 pop, but in all likelihood she will regress off such a big peak.
That said, her 124 rating in the Turnbull prior still wins this more often than not so $1.60 seems more than fair, you just have to be putting a lot on at those odds which feels a bit yucky.
I think the horse at odds that can run a race each-way is Royal Champion. His two runs in Australia have been well off that sort of level going 104-110 but he's been off a year break and building fitness, now getting to 2000m which is his best trip.
His past four 2000m runs in England rated 121-120-121 which puts him in the mix here, if Via regresses back to her typical sort of rating.
His Wolferton Stakes win was really good and they ran the fastest time figure on the card, which is on Day 1 of Royal Ascot against the Queen Anne winner Triple Time and star three-year-old Paddington.
Maybe he's not quite up to this level and I'd have liked to see him win the Crystal Mile last time but he should really improve again third-up out to 2000m and I think $26, and more so $4.20 the place, isn't the worst bet in the race.