3 minute read
We look at the Toorak and Might And Power from a ratings perspective.
Toorak
It looks a fairly good edition of the Toorak Handicap, albeit with the compressed weights. Big mile handicaps are the backbone of Australian racing and provide such a great spectacle.
This year, I think the horses near the top of the weights look very well suited given they only have to give 1.5-2kg away to horses they are rated well ahead of.
The top rated horse in the race is Antino and I don't think anyone is disputing that. By Timeform's measure, he actually ran a career peak last start at 121 having previously held a peak of 118, which he did run to in this race last year with 54.5kg, only rising 1kg here.
Even at the weights, his last start is comfortably the best last start rating leading in. A middle draw here looks ideal and on raw figures there's a case to be made he's favourite here.
That's where Another Wil comes in. He's run to 113+ and 116 in two runs this time in, and there's every chance he could've rated higher at both. He was sectionally outstanding fresh and nearly got put through the rail last time.
Whether barrier one poses an issue again here remains to be seen, but I found it tough to get him as short as he is. I'm expecting a new peak rating for him out to a mile which has him close to favourite, but the gap between he and Antino looks a bit big.
Of the rest, Osipenko looks the weight dropper who gets in well. He ran to 114 with Timeform in the Shannon Stakes last time and got home nicely. He wouldn't surprise.
Antino goes on top from a pricing perspective from Another Wil, with Osipenko rounding out the trifecta. I'd be surprised if something else won.
Might And Power
What was potentially looking like coming up a three or four horse field has managed to scrape together eight runners, headed clearly by Mr Brightside.
He's an absolute rock. Three runs this time in he's rated to 120, 125 and 123, the second-up Makybe Diva Stakes win right up to his best.
He ran second to Romantic Warrior running 125 in the Cox Plate last year so there are clearly no issues at 2000m, and he should have too much class for these.
I was slightly disappointed in his Feehan run but Jenni just had all the favours there and it was a bit of a boat race behind. He'll get a nice trail just behind a good speed here and is a genuine odds-on chance.
The only horse with a rating that can challenge him is Atishu. She was better last week in the Turnbull but still a fair way off her best. She does love the backup- she ran to 120 with Timeform (+4lb for mare's allowance) in the Champions Stakes off 7 days which would probably edge Mr Brightside. That said, she had run 117 the week prior and is only coming off a 112 last week.
Realistically, she's only got that one rating that wins this and I'm not convinced she's going as well as she can.
I think Deny Knowledge can be the quinella horse. She had a very tough run fresh off 6 weeks in the Underwood, three and four wide the trip on pace but sticking on really well for fifth.
Now she maps to either lead or let Jennilala cross and sit outside, and from there I think she'll take a bit of getting past. My bet in the race would be the Mr Brightside/Deny Knowledge exacta.