3 minute read
Probably the most open edition of The Everest and we’re keen to back a few.
The world's best sprint race takes place at Randwick on Saturday with the newly anointed Group 1 The Everest (1200m) seeing 12 world class sprinters do battle, and we're looking at $6 the field.
This year probably doesn't have that absolute world-class horse at the top but I genuinely think every horse could win without completely surprising and that is exciting.
I'll start with the three-year-olds, who make up a quarter of the field this year- the most ever.
I loved what Growing Empire did in the Manikato Stakes, sitting outside a hot tempo and kicking on (getting a bit lost late) as the other speed collapsed and only being run down by a millimetre perfect ride on Southport Tycoon.
He's run to 121 on the R&S ratings' scale there, and if we compare that to the other top three-year-olds to run in The Everest, he looks as likely as any.
Yes Yes Yes was rated 122 on the same scale off his narrow second to Bivouac in the Golden Rose and then ran to 126 to win The Everest in one of the strongest editions we've seen.
Giga Kick was only rated 113 yet improved 12 pounds to run 125 in his winning year. Other fancied three-year-olds include the 119 rated Shinzo & She Will Reign, 117 rated Jacquinot, 116 rated Graff and 115 rated Cylinder.
Growing Empire rated 121 is the second highest rated three-year-old to contest The Everest, and the only one rated higher beat one of the best sprint fields ever assembled.
No doubt he'll have to improve again, and I do hope the rain stays away for him because I think he's better on top of the ground, but he's very well equipped to take this out.
Traffic Warden is rated 118 so he's right there as well, and back from a Golden Rose looks a nice recipe for him. Storm Boy should've been in, and won the Caulfield Guineas. No doubt he's talented enough to win a big race, but if he's slowly away here I'm not sure he can win. That said, a really high pressure race here will suit him.
The highest rated horse in the race is I Wish I Win, who we make 125 off his Kingsford Smith win over the Winter. There's some query about how well he's going though, even if they've been around fast Moonee Valley tracks. He's run to ratings of 113 at both starts and a soft track at Randwick will see him improve sharply, but they're the worst two ratings he's ever run in Australia and that's not ideal leading into a $20 million race.
The traditional Sydney lead ups have been a bit of a farce with slow tempos and a few clearly not showing their hand (why would you want to practice running fast for a fast race?).
Of them all, Bella Nipotina is the one with the peaks to win this. She's rated 123 at her best and doing the sectionals at both runs in, there's every case to be made she should be 2/2 this time in. She's humming along and looks as good a chance as any.
The others I'm keen to have onside are Private Eye and Stefi Magnetica. Private Eye was given an absolutely awful ride last time in The Shorts- he jumped fine and was dragged right back, sitting three wide at the rear on a day you really wanted to be on the fence. His run was very good, 1200m suits and while he's been beaten in this race twice, he's the second longest runner in the field now.
Stefi was excellent in The Shorts fresh, slightly held up albeit in the right part of the track, running to 118 with the sectionals saying she was an unlucky loser. She'll need a new peak but one looks incoming.
For comparison, Joliestar is favourite right now and we have her rated 120 two back then 109 last time. She's a bit trendy but looks awfully short. I'm happy to oppose her and the 116 rated Sunshine In Paris through the mare's form- both are Group 1 quality but this is a new level and those extra few pounds don't come easy.
Pretty keen to bet here. I'm with Growing Empire on top and if it's dry I'd mark him favourite. Bella Nipotina looks bang on track to run her peak, which can't be said for I Wish I Win. Private Eye is the best roughie and Stefi Magnetica the other good each way hope.
The Everest
Tip: #9 Growing Empire
Danger: #4 Bella Nipotina
Roughie: #3 Private Eye