3 minute read
We look at the other two Group One races on Derby Day from a ratings perspective.
Coolmore Stud Stakes
The Coolmore has basically become the highlight of Derby Day, attracting such a quality field of three-year-olds every year, and this year is no exception.
Growing Empire comes here as the highest rated horse off his Manikato Stakes run where he looked the winner before wandering late and nosed out by Southport Tycoon, running to 121 on the R&S scale.
He dipped slightly in The Everest but almost negligibly- his run was very good absorbing the pressure of seasoned sprinters and sticking on for third.
While some may think he's over the top, the stable choosing to run here when they initially said might not happen is easily enough for me. I love horses having that experience against the older sprinters and he comes here equipped to run very well.
I love Zahra getting back on, drawn out, having had the straight track experience and also a firm deck. I think he's the horse to beat.
Traffic Warden was going to start a similar price to him in The Everest before coming out, so the market had him in the finish there as well. Whether he would've finished as high as third we'll never know, but off a freshen now back to 1200m with a big turn of foot looks a great recipe.
Switzerland bounced back in a big way last time going to 116 and is scary for J-Mac and Waller, and Coolmore, but I think Growing Empire, Traffic Warden and even Lady Of Camelot come through the better, tougher races.
I'm pretty similar to the market here with Growing Empire a narrow favourite from Traffic Warden here but have the Yulong colt on top.
Empire Rose Stakes
Over to the mare's mile where the quality is at the top. Atishu is clearly the highest rated in the field with a peak of 120 on the R&S scale which if she ran to, she'd be close to odds-on here.
She's off that form this preparation but her last two starts have been better, going 116 in the Turnbull and 115 in the Might And Power. The form out of the Turnbull has been outstanding and I thought her run at Caulfield was good without the best of luck.
Back to a mile here when she's so proven going on the backup to 2000m next week in the Champions Stakes is a small knock, but she loves Flemington and her class and ratings just have to see her as favourite here.
Amelia's Jewel has been okay this preparation in Sydney and I think she's just starting to get to her peak. She ran to 116 last start when making good ground in the King Charles which puts her right in the mix here.
Back to mare's grade, a soft draw, at Flemington, I think she can run to her absolute best on Saturday which makes her a clear second pick.
The one I'm heavily against is Orchestral who is taking up far too much percentage. She holds a peak rating of 113, with a few runs around that rating, but they're all over 2000-2400m.
Her two runs this time in have rated 102 and 105 and I can't see her being sharp enough at a mile.
Plenty Of Ammo was good last week winning the Crystal Mile running to 112 and is still on the up. She'll need a new peak but wouldn't surprise.
Really think there's only two chances here in Atishu and Amelia's Jewel, who I've both marked shorter than their current price and will be backing.