3 minute read
One of the world’s great races takes place at Tokyo on Sunday.
Up there with the best races anywhere in the world is the Group 1 Japan Cup (2400m) and the honour roll, while almost exclusively Japanese, is elite.
None better than last year when Equinox destroyed his rivals in his best rating to date, running to 135 on the RAS ratings, outstripping the likes of Epiphaneia, Deep Impact and Almond Eye, all six pounds adrift at 129.
This year, the highest rated horse going in will be Goliath who ran to 129 in his King George win at Ascot, starting 25-1 but thumping a world class field in very good time. Behind him there, with big margins, was subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, subsequent German & Breeder's Cup winner Rebel's Romance, six-time Group 1 winner Auguste Rodin (who is also here) and multiple Group 1 winners Luxembourg and Dubai Honour.
Some win, and he backed it up with a victory in the Group 1 Prix Du Conseil De Paris (2200m), this time on ground that was approximately 100 pounds slower (not a typo), running over a second quicker despite running an extra furlong at Ascot.
He ran to 124 on the RAS ratings there to give some substance to his 129, given a previous peak of 117, and he'll get quick (enough) ground on Sunday and a strong tempo to run to his best.
Whether he can still turn up on the other side of the world and run to that number remains to be seen, but he's an easy bet to have considering his place on the third line of betting.
That market is headed by three-year-old filly Cervinia, who is rated 120 on the RAS ratings off her last start win in in the Group 1 Shuka Sho (2000m), the third leg of the Japanese triple tiara.
She also won the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) with a rating of 117, and is easy to compare to some star fillies who have tackled the Japan Cup in that season.
Since 2000, there have been 21 fillies tackle the Japan Cup. Looking at the best of those, Almond Eye was rated 124 leading in, winning the triple tiara and sectionally looking even better, which she proved.
Gentildonna was rated 122, again looking better than that, and improved to 128 beating some world class horses in Orfevre and Rulership.
Daring Tact had also won the triple tiara, albeit with a peak of 116, improving to 123 in the Japan Cup but finishing third, to Almond Eye in her second Japan Cup win.
Last year Liberty Island was rated 122 in the Oaks, 120 in the Shuka Sho and improved to 127 but unfortunately bumped into one of the best we've ever seen in Equinox.
That said, you've also got ones that just hold their level or regress, and it typically takes the elite three-year-olds to win this, which Cervinia isn't quite.
No doubt she has claims but I'd be happy to bet around her, and the other local that looks more interesting is Do Deuce. He's got a remarkable record- a Group 1 winner at two (Futurity), three (Derby) four (Arima Kinen) and five (Tenno Sho). They're races that are very hard to win, and while he's very good, his ratings aren't quite what you'd think of a horse with that record.
He ran to 126 on the RAS ratings in both his Arima Kinen and Tenno Sho wins, and his splits in the Tenno Sho last time were excellent from back in the field, hinting he could be right on track to edge his best.
He does have the ability to put in a bad one but the majority of his bad ones can be excused, either due to ground or travel.
Speaking of throwing up a bad one, Auguste Rodin, son of Deep Impact, returns to his ceremonial homeland for his final run, and he feels very similar to Do Deuce, with an outstanding Group 1 CV, underpinned by a peak rating of 126, with a few shockers in there as well.
He was thumped by Goliath at Ascot, but better last time in the Irish Champion when second, running to 125, something like his best. He can certainly win.
Justin Palace is probably the other chance. His run was good in the Tenno Sho and he's not a 2000m horse. Even 2400m is on his short side, but if the pace really melts up front he'll be staying on powerfully.
I'll be taking on the filly in the Japan Cup and have to back in the rating Goliath ran at Ascot. There was no fluke about it in that sort of time, and his win since added a bit of guts behind it. If he runs to his best, he's the one to beat. Do Deuce is the danger and saver.
Japan Cup 2024
Top Tip: Goliath
Saver: Do Deuce