3 minute read
Plenty of key ratings to dissect with a number of Group 1 favourites enhancing their reputation.
Caulfield
The hot Toorak favourite did nothing to dampen his position at the top of the market, overcoming plenty of trouble to take out the Listed Testa Rossa Stakes (1400m).
It wasn't a particularly strong tempo and he nearly got put through the rail at the 250 mark, so it's fairly easy to bonus him a bit.
In terms of his rating, he's improved two pounds on his first-up win, going from 114 to 116. His peak rating came in the (time honoured) Racing & Sports Doncaster Prelude at 118, which he'll likely at least need to match to be winning the Toorak Handicap.
That said, I think he's a horse that will relish high pressure and more ground, both of which he'll get next time out. A typical Toorak winner in the past ten years has rated between 113 and 125 with last year's winner Attrition, carrying 54kg, running to 119.
Another Wil probably carries a bit more than that, so will have to improve up to the 120 sort of range, but it's not hard at all, rather easy in fact, to forecast him getting there.
The gelding has clearly been the making of Buckaroo who has run to a new peak rating, both in Australia and overseas.
He's run to 122 on the R&S scale, his previous peak sitting at 119 on the same scale in the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan (1850m) at Longchamp, finishing a narrow 4th of 6 with Light Infantry (Man) in 2nd.
He also ran to 119 last start in the Chelmsford Stakes, and even if he'd held that rating he'd have been victorious here. The pace was on and Moreira has gotten a good tune out of Buckaroo, riding his race nice and efficiently.
122 is right in the middle of a typical Underwood winner, a couple of pounds behind Russian Camelot and Zaaki (124) but one pound ahead of Mourinho and Homesman (121).
Homesman ran in the Caulfield Stakes (Might And Power) and was well beaten by Benbatl before running a very narrow second in the Caulfield Cup to Best Solution, holding that 121 rating.
That gives Buckaroo a genuine Caulfield Cup chance, especially since Place Du Carrousel and Fawnker Park have gone really poorly. It's a far cry from Without A Fight's return in this race last year.
Randwick
Another outstanding win from Eliyass who stamped his Metropolitan papers with a very strong win.
It wasn't a strong tempo despite what some of the margins might suggest, the sectionals and finishing speeds showing there was plenty of late running.
He's come home in 33.88 his last 600m and 11.4 his last 200m, with a finishing speed percentage of 107.6%. It'll be interesting to see him rise to 2400m in The Metropolitan because we haven't really seen him in a strongly run race, but on ratings alone he'll clearly be the one to beat.
He's run to a rating of 117 on the R&S scale, up from 112 and 113 at his previous two.
The Metropolitan hasn't taken much winning recently. In the past ten years, the highest rated winner on the R&S scale is Mirage Dancer at 117, who carried 55.5kg.
The obvious comparison is stablemate Just Fine who won this race last year with a rating of 116. He was ridiculously well weighted in The Metropolitan with 50kg, only needing to hold his rating on the same scale, and actually regressing significantly on the more weight-strict Timeform scale.
Just Fine started $1.75 in his Metropolitan win and Eliyass won't (or shouldn't) be near that given his weight, but given the quality of horse likely to be running, he probably won't be far off jumping in the red.
One of a lot of very slow tempo races on the card and luckily J-Mac sent her forward, because if she was back last, as plenty had mapped her to be, she would've had a very hard time picking them up.
She's run a rating of 112 on the R&S scale which is a good, but not great winner of a typical Tea Rose Stakes.
It sits in line with Alizee who went on to win the Flight Stakes, one pound below Dame Giselle (4th in the Flight) and two pounds below Funstar (won the Flight).
All that bodes very well for Autumn Glow who looked vulnerable here. She clearly wants 1600m and more pressure. If they ride her like this in the Flight, she'll win. If they don't, she probably still wins, but it'll be far less comfortable.