3 minute read
Group 1 racing is back and Via Sistina issued a warning to her rivals in the Winx Stakes, while Joliestar is back with a bang.
Via Sistina
Big return from the very talented mare, resuming over a distance well short of her best and charging up the inside to grab Zougotcha, who Tommy Berry was sure he was home aboard.
She's run to a Timeform rating of 118+ here, which is three pounds below her Australian peak of 121+ which she also ran fresh to win the Ranvet Stakes, but that was at 2000m.
Zougotcha, who was better ridden and ran right up to her best, also 118, which is the rating she ran in 2/3 starts last preparation.
Looking at the splits, there's actually very little difference between the likes of Via Sistina, Fangirl and Riff Rocket , all of whom have gone very well. Via Sistina (33.14) was only home in 0.04 seconds faster over the final 600m compared to Fangirl (33.18) , with Riff Rocket (33.32) the third fastest.
Fangirl was perhaps a touch disappointing in regards to her SP, and this race shape absolutely suited her turn of speed, but she wasn't quite at her best, and she was arguably priced to be at that level.
She's run to 116+, which is the same rating she ran to win this race last year, so there isn't much more to say. She's come back well and should be able to get back to her 120-122 range, but I'd imagine her and Via Sistina will split paths sooner rather than later.
Looking at recent Winx Stakes winners, and what they've gone on to do that Spring, the form usually rings fairly true. We'll exclude Winx herself from this list.
| Year | Horse | Winning Rating | Spring Highlights + Peak Rating |
| 2023 | Fangirl* | 116 | 1st G1 King Charles (121) |
| 2022 | Anamoe | 125 | 3 x G1s incl Cox Plate (126) |
| 2021 | Mo'unga | 118 | 2nd G1 Makybe Diva (121) |
| 2020 | Verry Eleegant* | 114 | 1st G1 Caulfield Cup (120) |
| 2019 | Samadoubt | 119 | 1st G2 Chelmsford (120) |
| 2015 | Royal Descent* | 121 | 2nd G1 George Main (119) |
| 2014 | Tiger Tees | 121 | 2nd G2 Tramway *only run* (118) |
| 2013 | Veyron | 121 | 3rd G1 George Main (122) |
| 2012 | Pinwheel | 121 | 4th G1 Winterbottom (117) |
| 2011 | Pinwheel | 118 | 4th G2 Sebring Sprint (121) |
| 2010 | Mental Bender | 123 | 3rd G1 Underwood (123) |
In recent years especially, because of the race gaining Group 1 status, the winners have typically gone on to win at least one other Group 1. Only Mo'unga didn't, and he did bump into Incentivise in that Makybe Diva second.
You'd be brave to suggest Via Sistina won't win at least one more, and I'd be very surprised if that race wasn't the Turnbull Stakes, with the Cox Plate the obvious grand final.
Joliestar
Visually the win of the day by Joliestar, who had been floated as a possible Everest contender prior to this win. After it, her position in that race seems almost a given, at least by the twittersphere post-race.
She certainly pleased the eyes guys with this win, and has ripped home in some outstanding sectionals to back up a very good fresh rating, running to 115+.
Her last 600m was clearly the fastest of the meeting at 32.8, and a rating of 115, which could well have been nudging 120 if run more efficiently, is a new peak for Joliestar, up from 112.
She ran 112 in both her Thousand Guineas and Arrowfield Sprint wins over a mile and 1200m but has clearly come back even better.
To put her in some context, the best sprinting mare still racing at the moment is Bella Nipotina, who holds a peak Timeform rating of 123, and has run 120+ on four occasions in the past year.
Even a mare like Sunshine In Paris (117) and a filly like Estriella (118) hold a slight edge on the raw rating of Joliestar.
The Everest has seen a tight winning range of 125-128 since its inception, and the best finishing mare, In Secret, ran to 119 and did have excuses.
In a thin period for Australian sprinters, Joliestar has the profile and turn of speed to hold her own in an Everest this year.