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Melbourne Cup Trip Background

3 minute read

Which Horse Has The Distance In Their Legs?

Many still follow Bart's mantra Picture: Racing and Sports

In recent times there has been a strong emphasis on the correlation between Melbourne Cup winning efforts and the number of kilometres a horse has travelled in their lead up preparation for the race.

Racing and Sports has prepared a table of previous Cup winners (and some placegetters) showing the number of runs this preparation and the number of kilometres covered prior to running in the Cup

It should prove a useful guide in deciding which of the Cup fancies best fit the historical data.

Analysis of Historical Data

The analysis of these figures is not as straight forward as it seems. The average number of runs since a spell is 6. The average race distance covered by winners going into the race is just over 12km.

Other points of interest are that mares in general seem to have a lighter preparation than male horses. eg 5 runs and 9km travelled.

No mare has won the Cup in the last 45 years that has travelled more than Jezabeel did at 11.4km in 1998.

Horses which have to specifically qualify for a start, not surprisingly, seem to have covered more race km than those horses who have been specifically set for the race.

If we analyse Bart Cummings' 12 Cup winners we also see the trend for mares "confirmed".

For example, both the mares he has trained to win the Cup, Let's Elope and Light Fingers had 6 runs since a spell and had travelled 10.8km and 9km respectively.

His other male winners had an average of 6.5 runs from a spell and covered an average of 11.7km going into the Cup.

It seems the ideal preparation for a horse going into the Melbourne Cup is for it have had between 6 - 8 runs from a spell and travelled somewhere between 10.5km and 14.5km in lead up races. Over 60% of Cup winners in the last 50 years fitted this specification.

However the advent of international horses, trainers and training techniques has seen those decrease – especially in terms of the number of lead up runs.

Year Horse Kms RFS
2023

Without A Fight

Soulcombe

Sheraz

4.2

7.9

8.7

2

4

4

2022

Gold Trip

Emissary

High Emocean

9.9

8.5

11.9

5

4

5

2021

Verry Elleegant

Incentivise

Spanish Mission

7.0

6.0

16.2

4

3

5

2020

Twilight Payment

Tiger Moth

Prince Of Arran

11.2

6.8

12.0

4

3

4

2019

Vow And Declare

Prince Of Arran

Il Paradiso

4.4

12.4

14.2

2

5

5

2018

Cross Counter

Marmelo
A Prince Of Arran

11.6

11.5

21.2

5

4

7

2017

Rekindling

Johannes Vermeer

Max Dynamite

15.0

14.9

5.6

6

7

2

2016

Almandin

Heartbreak City

Hartnell

8.9

9.2

9.0

4

3

5

2015

Prince Of Penzance

Max Dynamite

Criterion

9.9

9.7

8.1

5

3

4

2014

Protectionist

Red Cadeaux

Who Shot Thebarman

12.0

10.2

10.1

5

4

5

2013

Fiorente

Red Cadeaux

Mount Athos

7.0

17.1

11.1

4

7

4

2012

Green Moon

Fiorente

Jakkalberry

7.0

11.6

12.7

4

5

5

2011

Dunaden

Red Cadeaux

Lucas Cranach

5.4

22.6

12.0

2

8

5

2010

Americain

Maluckyday

So You Think

14.4

10.0

9.2

5

5

5

2009

Shocking

Crime Scene

Mourilyan

11.8

9.2

8.6

6

4

3

2008

Viewed

Bauer

C'est La Guerre

7.6

7.8

7.5

4

3

4

2007 Efficient
Purple Moon
Mahler
7.0
9.6
17.4
4
4
7
2006 Delta Blue
Pop Rock
Maybe Better
2.4
2.4
15.8
1
1
9
2005 Makybe Diva
On A Jeune
Excellent
7.0
12.4
5.5
4
7
3
2004 Makybe Diva
Vinnie Roe
Zazzman
7.4
5.2
13.6
4
2
7
2003 Makybe Diva
She's Archie
Jardines Lookout
7.4
9.4
-
4
5
FU
2002 Media Puzzle
Mr. Prudent
Beekeeper
20.1
11.3
4.4
8
6
2
2001 Ethereal
Give The Slip
Persian Punch
7.4
-
9.2
4
FU
3
2000 Brew
Yippyio
Second Coming
9.26
10.30
6.00
5
5
3
1999 Rogan Josh
Central Park
Zazabelle
Lahar
11.64
8.44
12.30
7.54
6
4
6
4
1998 Jezabeel
Champagne
Persian Punch
11.40
10.50
16.38
6
6
5
1997 Might And Power
Doriemus
Markham
8.10
7.40
9.60
5
4
5
1996 Saintly
Count Chivas
Skybeau
11.54
11.2
14.34
6
6
7
1995 Doriemus
Nothin' Leica Dane
Vintage Crop
8.7
13.1
14.8
4
7
5
1994 Jeune
Paris Lane
Oompala
10.7
12.7
28.7
6
7
14
1993 Vintage Crop
Te Akau Nick
Mercator
17.1
8.7
11.9
6
4
5
1992 Subzero
Veandercross
Castletown
11.4
10.0
11.4
6
5
6
1991 Let's Elope
Shiva's Revenge
Magnolia Hall
10.8
9.04
14.8
6
5
7
1990 Kingston Rule
The Phantom
Mr Brooker
13.42
9.04
12.2
8
5
6
1989 Tawriffic
Super Impose
Kudz
17.0
14.6
12.51
8
8
6
1988 Empire Rose
Natski
Na Botto
7.1
13.3
14.55
4
6
8
1987 Kensei
Empire Rose
Rosedale
12.2
9.0
11.5
6
5
6
1986 At Talaq
Rising Fear
Sea Legend
11.8
20.7
14.1
6
9
7
1985 What A Nuisance 16.62 8
1984 Black Knight 17.6 9
1983 Kiwi 10.3 6
1982 Gurners Lane 16.95 8
1981 Just A Dash 14.1 7
1980 Belldale Ball 10.5 6
1979 Hyperno 10.6 6
1978 Arwon 17.2 8
1977 Gold And Black 12.6 7
1976 Van Der Hum 17.35 8
1975 Think Big 11.0 6
1974 Think Big 14.75 7
1973 Gala Supreme 11.8 6
1972 Piping Lane 11.9 6
1971 Silver Knight 13.65 7
1970 Baghdad Note 10.8 6
1969 Rain Lover 11.4 6
1968 Rain Lover 12.6 7
1967 Red Handed 11.05 6
1966 Galilee 12.9 8
1965 Light Fingers 9 6
1964 Polo Prince 11.9 6
1963 Gatum Gatum 17 8
1962 Even Stevens 9.5 6
1961 Lord Fury 12.8 7
1960 Hi Jinx 10.3 5

There seems to be a correlation between age of the horse and km travelled going into the Cup. For example 5YOs seem to need more racing compared to the 4YOs.