Gary Crispe's 2024 Timeform Melbourne Cup Preview

3 minute read

With outstanding Cox Plate winner Via Sistina bypassing the Cup, her trainer Chris Waller is now left with several excellent chances, the first of those being current favourite Buckaroo.

The Caulfield Cup has always been a good guide to the Melbourne Cup – Without A Fight last year completing the Cups double and the year prior Gold Trip second at Caulfield before taking the Cup.

In 2021 Incentivise won the Caulfield Cup before bumping into a red hot Verry Elleegant at Flemington while Vow And Declare runner up in 2019 went on to win the Cup in a blanket finish.

That is an impressive historical form pattern which is why the Chris Waller trained Buckaroo who finished an unlucky second at Caulfield is right in the Cup mix.

Buckaroo started his Australian career rather disappointingly, but did improve slightly in his second Australian campaign however this campaign has seen him rise to a new peak Timeform rating of 124 at Caulfield

That unlucky Caulfield effort followed a narrow defeat at Flemington in the Turnbull Stakes by dominant Cox Plate winner Via Sistina - that race has proven to be one of the form races of the Spring.

Prior to those two runs, Buckaroo has won the Group 1 Underwood Stakes by over three lengths.

Buckaroo gets into the Cup on 54.5kgs and cannot be re-handicapped for his excellent Caulfield Cup run.

He rates strongly to give Waller a second Melbourne Cup.

It could be a case of ninth time lucky for champion Irish trainer Willie Mullins who saddles up two runners again in the Melbourne Cup this year, crack Irish stayer Vauban and handy stablemate Absurde.

Both ran last year with Absurde doing best of the pair in seventh place while Vauban faded to 14th place. However as was the case last year it is more likely that Vauban will be the more fancies of the duo who has been in top form coming into today's Cup.

Last time out Vauban was runner up to Europe's Champion stayer Kyprios in the Group 1 Irish St Leger – always a great lead up race for the Melbourne Cup.

The Leger this year was the fastest since 2014 despite a steady pace off which Vauban sprinted quickly to split two smart ones. The record of horses in the Cup off the Irish Leger is fine – Twilight Payment the winner from 23 attempts this century and Red Cadeaux that pair ultimately building a record that says they usually achieve market expectations.

The strength of the St Leger form is underscored by the third-place getter Giavellotto who was three lengths astern of Vauban. That galloper had previously easily won the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes at Newmarket over 2414m and the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup over 2816m.

Staying form in Ireland does not much better than that and his most recent performances based on his Timeform ratings profile are at least on a par with the level of last year with a peak rating of 119.

At his start prior, Vauban scored narrowly at York in the Listed Lonsdale Cup over 3319m defeating handy stayers Al Nayyir and Gregory, again rating 119.

Mullins has previously sent eight horses to Flemington for the Cup, Max Dynamite and Simenon in third and fourth spots respectively his best results. Vauban is superior to that pair both on the flat and over obstacles and it is his dash on the dry that underpins the form that proves it.

The one thing that has changed this year is the break he will have coming into the cup, around six weeks compared to more than three months last year.

Vauban started 9/2 favourite in last year's Cup and after looming up at the 400m mark failed to finish the race off. However, there may have been genuine excuses for the below par run as it was reported Vauban was affected by the very hot conditions on the day and a Flemington track gallop a few days prior.

Third placed Caulfield Cup runner Land Legend also warrants consideration with his prospects today better assessed by his narrow win on the ATC Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap two starts back where he narrowly defeated VRC Oaks winner Zardozi.

A striking lightly raced son of champion sire Galileo, Land Legend had won the ATC St Leger over 2600m last season at his first Australian race start when prepared by James Ferguson.

Now under the care of astute mentor Chris Waller, Land Legend had excuses in the Caulfield Cup and can improve on that performance today especially with a firmer track in the offering. According to rider Zac Purton, Land Legend was unsettled before Caulfield and that had impacted his racing performance.

Recent convincing Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator took one of the main Cup lead races, the Geelong Cup, at his first Australian start and did it in impressive fashion running to a 112+ Timeform rating.

Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden all parlayed eye-catching and data-dazzling performances in the Geelong Cup into better wins into the Cup. But beyond them, there have been another six Cup runners off the Geelong Cup this century – all coming up short.

The betting seems to have undershot Geelong a touch then, the three winners bang on double what the betting has expected.

The distance should hold no fears for Onesmoothoperator having scored in the Northumberland Plate over 3319m back in June earlier this year. Further improvement can be expected this afternoon.

The Chris Waller trained Kovalica last saluted the judge in June 2023 in the Group 1 Queensland Derby over 2400m. Since then his form has been patchy finishing second in an Epsom Handicap and third in a Hollindale Stakes.

However, all his four runs this campaign have been sound with the exception of his sixth placing in the Cox Plate behind Via Sistina when beaten out of sight by almost 12 lengths. But putting that in perspective he as only four lengths behind crack Japanese runner Prognosis.

In fact his ratings profile suggests he is in career best form running to a Timeform rating of 119 in the Hill Stakes two runs back, a run that is a new master figure for the five-year-old and just marginally ahead of his narrow defeat in the 2023 Group 1 Epsom where he ran to 118.

Admittedly he is an unknown conveyance at 3200m, but in a year where the main hopes are thin, he is well capable of causing an upset.

The Harry Eustace trained Sea King followed Onesmoothoperator's Geelong win by landing the Bendigo Cup in both similar style and substance – the rating and the time that underpins it near enough to identical.

Interesting that both horses who had finished alongside each other in the Ebor Handicap then travel to Australia and run to identical Timeform ratings both winning on debut.

In the last 20 years seven runners have come to Flemington off the Bendigo Cup, with a single placegetter the highlight, but just one started shorter than $31 with less than a fifth of a win expected by the market.

Geelong gets more fanfare – Bendigo hasn't had the runners but there might be a clue that it has the potential to be every bit the platform that Geelong provides Sea King gets the opportunity to prove the point..

Only Puissance De Lune has outrun his Bendigo rating in modern times and he splits that one and Francis Of Assisi, another visitor, who like Puissance De Lune went to Flemington and won the Queen Elizabeth by so far that it was impossible not to think we just saw what would have been a Cup player had he had his chance. Sea King has that chance.

Absurde the lesser favoured Stablemate to Vauban is capable of being in the finish. Last year the market expected plenty of him, sent out an 8-1 chance which was above and beyond the level of form he had produced up to that point. He was rated 114 winning the Ebor and has been just as good in 2024, doing well (Cheltenham Festival winner) over hurdles before returning to the flat at the Curragh (clearly needed it) and then to peak form when winning at Chester last time.

There he was able to quicken and outpace a Group Three winner who has shown smart form (rated 116) in good staying races throughout the UK season.

So, he is well suited to racing as we typically see it in Australia, travelling and quickening, and comes back to Flemington at least as well as last year.

Proven two-mile galloper Okita Soushi continued his upward ratings profile with an emphatic win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Formerly trained by Joseph O'Brien, Okita Soushi finished around nine lengths behind Without A Fight in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups last year.

Now under the care of Ciaron Maher, Okita Soushi has improved at every one of his four runs under Maher and strolled clear of his rivals in the Moonee Valley Cup recording a Timeform ratings of 111 just a pound below his winning figure in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (2414m) at the 2023 Royal Ascot meeting.

Clearly more seasoned now in his second Australian Campaign, Okita Soushi will improve further this afternoon.

New Zealand Derby winner Sharp 'N' Smart comes through the less traditional Cups lead up pathway via the Moonee Valley Cup – a race that has produced Cup winners in the past.

A dual Group 1 winner Sharp 'N' Smart a New Zealand Derby winner at three, has improved at each of his four starts this campaign, clearly being set to peak in the Cup by Team Rogerson.

The son of Redwood began the campaign with two unplaced runs in New Zealand before a poor effort in the Turnbull Stakes where he got too far out of his ground on soft ground, however he showed marked improvement in the Moonee Valley Cup attacking the finish line after being worse than mid field on the turn running to a Timeform rating of 115, just a pound shy of his master figure.

Sharp 'N' Smart will relish a return to the spacious Flemington and looks well suited on just 53.5kgs. However, the one nagging doubt is Sharp 'N' Smart has not won a race for well over a year.

While the aforementioned horses make up the main chances.