3 minute read
We head to The Valley with the Listed Carlyon Stakes headlining the card.
The Listed Carlyon Stakes (1000m) has seen a change in conditions this year, previously only open to four-year-olds and older but Bold Bastille comes here as the first three-year-old to ever contest the race.
The speedy filly comes here rated 109 by Timeform, which she ran at Flemington at her third start. She ran to 105 on debut at The Valley over 1000m in good time and resumes here with the 50.5kg on her back.
A typical Carlyon winner ranges from 105-113 on the Timeform scale, so she's in the ballpark, but will need to have taken that next step with a spell under the belt, because Mornington Glory is no slouch.
He posted a new peak of 110 to win here last time out and a repeat of that will take some beating, but I think she's got the profile to do so.
She thumped Hayasugi on debut here and as a whole we're expecting the two-year-old form to stand up strongly. I wouldn't be surprised if Mornington Glory regresses a touch off that big margin win last time as well.
We'll make Bold Bastille the best and roll back one race to the seventh for the each-way play where Jennilala makes appeal.
She resumes in an open handicap here having won in good time first-up at Flemington last time in, only around two lengths slower overall than Riff Rocket in the C S Hayes over the same trip earlier.
She ran to a Timeform rating of 108 there which saw her start a $10 chance in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic (1500m) in Sydney next time out.
That sort of rating has her right in the finish here, especially when you consider the favourite Sea What I See holds a peak of 106 on the Timeform scale, albeit with a very attractive profile.
Jennilala is unbeaten (3/3) fresh, keeps Bates on, who will be aggressive to find the front and roll along which will see her very hard to catch. Keen to be with her at $9.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 8 #9 Bold Bastille at $3.10
Each-way play: Race 7 #3 Jennilala at $9 and $2.70