3 minute read
Cracking night of racing at Moonee Valley with the Manikato headlining the card.
Fantastic night of racing with the Manikato and Feehan attracting some absolute top line horses.
I've previewed the Group 1 Manikato Stakes (1200m) here but we'll pass over that for a best bet and instead look to the Group 2 Stutt Stakes (1600m).
Watching live it appeared Dawn Service got an easy lead and fell in to win the Listed Exford Plate (1400m) at Flemington last start, but the splits and finishing speed percentage show that he's actually gone out at a strong clip and run his race quite inefficiently.
He's run to 105+ with Timeform which is the best last start rating in the field by at least a few pounds, and I've got no issue with him stepping up to the mile here. He'll likely just roll straight to the front again and if Shinn paces it correctly, which he almost always does, I think they'll struggle to turn the tables.
Evaporate is a nice horse and racing well but has been beating nothing, running a rating of 100 last time out. He has had the favours on speed on slow tempos his last two and faces a different level here.
The one to watch is Henlein who likely gets back to last but has been running good splits and looks every bit a Spring Champion horse.
For the value play of the night I'm happy to stick with Tobeornottobe in the Group 3 Scarborough Stakes (1200m).
I was keen on her fresh off a nice jump out and she didn't really get things in her favour against horses who had a run under the belt, facing a strong wind up the inside and sticking on well for third.
The step to 1200m from a beautiful draw suits nicely and I think she'll turn the tables on those ahead of her fresh.
The one to beat is Eneeza who brings the right form from Sydney last time in and she's probably worth saving on.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the night: Race 6 #3 Dawn Service at $3.20
Each-way play: Race 5 #5 Tobeornottobe at $8.50 & $3