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Rough weekend all around the country last weekend, Brisbane included. So we’ll just leave it at that and move on.
We’ll go back to one of out favourites today in Mishani Warrior to help us build the bank for a tricky quaddie.
He’s backing up quickly today in the Thoroughbred Breeders Open Handicap (1300m) after he was an absolute moral beaten seven days back at Doomben.
Chasing a fourth-straight win last weekend, Mishani Warrior was held up for almost 300m in the straight. He finally shouldered out in the final 100m and gobbled up the ground late on to get within a length of Billy Aucash.
He jumps to open grade now and takes on some better quality horses today but it’s a smaller field and you can guarantee Anthony Allen won’t let him get folded up on the rail again.
Crucially today he drops to 52.5kg with Allen’s claim factored in – that’s 4.5kg less than what he lugged last weekend.
There are two major threats here in Funtantes and Listen Son, who come through the same race from this track over 1200m two weeks ago.
Listen Son beat Funtantes on that occasion and now meets her 1.5kg worse off.
But both are slight query runners.
Funtantes began poorly in that race last start and never looked like reeling in Listen Son. She finished off okay but now jumps to 1300m over which she’s unplaced in eight starts.
Mishani Warrior meanwhile has three wins and two minors from five cracks at the journey.
Listen Son may prove the bigger danger. Expect him to lead and then kick at the top of the straight on his home track.
As with Funtantes though, the 1300m may well be telling.
In 13 tries over the trip he has one win, and if Mishani Warrior finishes as strongly as he did last week it’ll take a might performance from Listen Son to stave him off.
It’s one of the best races on the card, and it looks like the weights will be telling.
Our best bet comes in the last where we’re looking for a bit of value to get us home in once piece.
It’s a wide-open field and I’ve settled on Dr Barnard who’s close to double-figures.
Two runs back at this track and trip he produced an absolute pearler from well back.
He came from near last, weaved his way through in the straight and dove up the inside late on to miss by less than a length.
That came after he was beaten half a length by After Baron at Doomben early last month – a race which has produced six subsequent winners.
He backs up quickly today after running fourth at Warwick six days ago. On face value that doesn’t sound overly inspiring, but it was a strong race and he was unlucky in the straight.
The form around him is strong and he should be surging home again today.
He’s definitely worth an each-way go at around $9.50.
The lay of the day is back in race five, a tricky looking open three-year-old race.
Six of these are last-start winners and there are some strong formlines coming together which will make this a very intriguing battle.
The one we’re taking on is Prussian Heart who’s come up favourite after falling in to beat Teronado here two weeks ago in a blanket finish.
We know Teronado is a handy horse so that looks a solid piece of form on face value, but Prussian Heart did get the run of the race and experienced jockey Jim Byrne squeezed every drop out of him in the shadows of the post to hold on.
They’ve booked an apprentice today to offset the 3kg weight rise, which means he’ll still be carrying a kilogram more than that race from two weeks ago.
He bumps into some red-hot opposition today too, including impressive debut winner Heza Bobby Dazzler, who has been instantly pounced on by Chris Munce, and the talented Tisani Tomso.
The form around Tisani Tomso reads pretty well – he finished second to Into The Red last start, and he went down to Sydney last weekend to run a solid race in the Run To The Rose.
Throw in Mishani Gladiator and Queen Of The Lochs who are both showing ability, and this becomes a tricky assignment.
The $3.60 about Prussian Heart looks a little skinny for mine.
Banker: Race 3 #5 Mishani Warrior @ $2.80
Bet of the day: Race 8 #2 Dr Barnard @ $9.50
Lay of the day: Race 5 #2 Prussian Heart @ $3.60