3 minute read
No luck for Sea Spray and The Melbourne Mail last weekend, but we ain't quitters, and we are buttering up on the handy filly at Flemington this week.
Sea Spray lost her race in the first of 1400 metres at Caulfield, stepping slowly and consigning herself to settling down towards the rear of the field.
From there she was left to round up the field, a task made all the more difficult when she lived up to her name by running up onto rocks at the turn.
She managed to avoid a complete shipwreck, rallying home with a wet sail to grab third, and showing good closing speed in the process.
Related: The Melbourne Mail - April 4
You make your own luck in racing, and Sea Spray's fate at Caulfield was largely of her own doing, so being too forgiving can be a foolish move for the punter, but The Melbourne Mail is willing to give Sea Spray another chance at the price on offer in a race that does look ideal for her.
The each way play comes a couple of races later with the Gai Waterhouse-trained Liberation.
He's got plenty of quirks but he's also got plenty of talent and he looks well placed against this company after a good return in the Bendigo Guineas.
The query for him is the map. He's a go-forward horse drawn out in a race with several other go-forward horses.
Looking at some early travelling speeds in the race, as opposed to just position in running, shows that he can certainly cross over to lead or sit outside the lead in this field.
Liberation has run the first half of his race at between 16.5 and 16.9 metres per second, only Berlutti has a consistent pattern of early speed in the same range as Liberation, his last three being between 16.3 and 16.9 mps.
That pair can roll across, Liberation can prove too strong, and The Melbourne Mail can prove too clever come the fourth on Saturday.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 2 #1 Sea Spray @ $4.20
Each Way Play: Race 4 #7 Liberation @ $6.00