3 minute read
Flemington hosts a typically strong card at Flemington on Saturday with the feature being the listed Straight Six Handicap.
The Straight Six is the feature on the card and Lumosty is the feature in the Straight Six as she looks to back up her blistering win from last time out.
We had a look at how fast Lumosty ran first up and came to one conclusion; very!
The next question is how short does Lumosty deserve to be in the Straight Six on the back of that performance? The answer is again, very.
There is little doubt, at least among the sharp minds here at Racing And Sports, that Lumosty is the most likely winner on Saturday, but if the game was just a matter of finding the most likely winner we'd be punting from a poolside bar somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.
The real game is figuring how how likely is likely, and in the case of Lumosty we figure her to be around a 60 percent chance, or $1.65.
Current markets have her around that price and up to $1.75, a three percent overlay.
$1.82, a five percent overlay, is what we want, and if we get it we can happily label this smart filly as our best of the day.
A deep Flemington card offers up a few nice horses worth keeping on side at each way odds.
One of them is the consistent and reliable Gracious Prospect who ran right to his best form at run number thirteen for the campaign and can be fairly confidently relied upon to be around that mark again at run number fourteen for the campaign.
He's considered a $10 chance in the early betting but a repeat of his latest would have him more likely than that and certainly one to have running for us.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL:
Best Bet: Race 6 #9 Lumosty @ $1.82 or better.
Each Way Play: Race 8 #5 Gracious Prospect @ $10.00