Best From The West - October 3

3 minute read

The Adam Durrant trained Caralabek has continued to improve with each performance to date and appears well placed to return to the winner's stall at Belmont on Saturday.

A clear eye catcher over the 2200m journey last start, the son of Hala Bek should be right at his peak stepping out for just his fifth start.

Due to line up in the fifth event Caralabek clearly possesses the most upside, on average his rivals have had 36 starts each.

When assessing win/loss records on average his rivals are seven starts between wins or over 250 days - to suggest he has limited opposition is an understatement.

With the average number of starts evidently high it is clear the majority have reached their respective marks and thus present little upside.

When you combine this with a sequence of losses, their chances of success continues to decrease, conversely Caralabek's chances increase.

The old adage - "nothing succeeds like success" or "winners keep winning, losers keep losing" is clearly represented in this event.

Using Timeform weight adjusted ratings, Caralabek's last start performance leaves him the equal highest rated galloper on 50 day figures.

Currently installed a 3-1 chance appears a more than worthy gamble as if priced using predictive ratings we have him marked close to the even money favourite.

While we concede his racing pattern is low percentage, he is likely to settle closer to the speed from the more favourable draw.

On average Caralabek has improved more than three pounds at each career start and if able to continue that upwards rating profile, he sets a decent standard for his rivals and is a more than worthy gamble.

The Grant Williams trained Mississippian has returned in fantastic order this time in and appears well placed to bring up the hat-trick in the final event.

Joining Williams' care at the start of the season, Mississippian is clearly back on track and remains open to further improvement moving forward.

The much in-form William Pike sticks aboard and is notably striking at 29% this season and has run at a POT of +7.3% - he is officially low-level flying.

While ridden back off the speed last start, Mississippian is adaptable and could look to roll forward if required to on the weekend.

He rates clear on Timeform weight adjusted ratings and while there is a big watch for the Daniel Harrison trained Universal Moon, more than happy to side with the Williams' runner.

As much as 5-2 is being offered about his chances in early markets which presents good value, as we have him marked close to the odds-on favourite.

Trust in the Wizard from the wide draw and he should prove very hard to beat.

BET OF THE DAY (1): Race 5 #4 Caralabek @ $4.00

BET OF THE DAY (2): Race 7 #6 Mississippian @ $3.50