3 minute read
The feature at Flemington this weekend is the Australian Guineas and it's shaping as a terrific betting heat with a range of formlines and clashing opinions.
The Caulfield Guineas and Thousand Guineas winners ply their trade up the highway in Randwick's equivalent but Flemington's race is hardly lacking for Classic winners either.
The winners of New Zealand's 2000 and 1000 Guineas are in attendance along with the winners of the VRC Derby and Oaks.
All four of those 'Classic winners' were up to standard but there's one that is promising to be historically significant - The New Zealand 2000 Guineas winner Xtravangant.
Xtravagant was awarded a rating of 123 for his win in the New Zealand Guineas, the highest-rated performance in the recent history of a race that has subsequent Australian Group 1 winners Turn Me Loose, Sacred Falls and Jimmy Choux among it's winners since 2010.
Xtravagant was also the first NZ 2000 Guineas winner to return a higher Guineas-winning rating than his Caulfield compatriot in the same season since Veandercross who was considered the (vastly) superior horse to Chortle in 1991.
Xtravagant followed his Guineas win with an unconvincing win at Ellerslie and a shock loss at Trentham where shifty ground was thrown up as the excuse.
Excuse or not there had to be some cause for concern, and a query on the true worth of his Guineas success, but he set those concerns aside when beating up on older horses (several of them Group 1 winners) at Te Rapa last time, sprinting away to a record margin in a race that twice witnessed Sunline in full flight.
Xtravagant may not quite be Sunline but he won't need to be that good to win the Australian Guineas, he earned a rating of 125 at Te Rapa and that sees him as clearly the horse to beat at Flemington, sitting well clear of not just his rivals on Saturday but the average winning figure for the Australian Guineas.
For all of that, what really matters is what price he is and what price we think he should be. All things considered we have him marked inside 2/1 and so prices between $3.20 and $3.50 represent good betting odds and we're keen to be with him.
Check out TopBetta's Australian Guineas Market here
The race runs deeper and we are also keen to have an each way play away from Xtravagant.
The C.S Hayes was an messy race and produced ordinary figures overall. Palentino may not have walked away with the cheque at the end of the day but he came out of the race with the best reputation and - possible exception to River Wild who missed the kick 5L - the only horse we could entertain as a genuine winning hope in the Guineas.
Palentino is a nice horse in the making but with it all to prove at this level and we prefer the chances of the Derby winner Tarzino who ran to a Timeform rating of 119 when winning the Derby which makes him the second highest rated horse in the race.
That form came over further but a high pressure mile can see Tarzino somewhere near his best and his return run suggested that he was back in terrific order.
We see him as the clear second pick and at current prices we'd rather have him running for us than against us.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #5 Xtravagant @ $3.20
Each Way Play: Race 7 #2 Tarzino @ $7.50