3 minute read
Easter is a true feast for punters with three metropolitan meetings across the weekend in Melbourne.
The Melbourne Mail is casting it's eye forward to Caulfield on Saturday and the Victoria Handicap where Newmarket runner up Black Heart Bart is the headline horse.
He was terrific first up in the Newmarket, announcing himself as more than just your ordinary visitor from the west and his record suggests that 1400m is going to bring out the best in him.
He won twice in as many outings over 1400m in his most recent Perth preparation and his win in the 2015 Bunbury Stakes over 1400m was as good as any form he has posted to this point, smashing the clock and putting up the highest Timeform rating at Bunbury in 20 years.
The Victoria Handicap is a very competitive race and he has to give weight all around but his ratings stack right up regardless and they point to him being more of a $2.25 chance than current quotes around the $3.00 mark.
Tried And Tired comes off a good 1400m win last time and looks a danger, as does the honest Red Bomber. It's the right weekend for a third-up resurrection and Charmed Harmony is capable of just that, but ultimately they will all have to stretch to topple Bart and he should be bet up at the early prices.
A similar scenario presents itself in the Easter Cup. Awesome Rock rocks arrives at the top of the handicap after a Group 1 second last time out and has to appeal on form.
The 2016 Australian Cup was a bit of a farce, though, and while we certainly respect the fine form that Awesome Rock is in we are happy to play away from him at early prices.
One that makes appeal at a longer quote is German import Guardini who comes off the Blamey Stakes run on the same day.
The Blamey and the Australian Cup were chalk and cheese, the Blamey ripped along at a strong tempo while the Australian Cup was a dawdle.
That Guardini was able to run up to mount a challenge in the Blamey was credible, and that he peaked on his run over the last 200m excusable.
He will be better suited over 2000m and there is every chance that the good first-up hit-out can bring him right on towards his peak - a peak that saw him a Group 2 winner in Germany and a fairly useful horse.
He was good enough in Europe to start $10.00 in the Prix Niel - on face value that points to $10.00 in an Easter Cup being a gift from the heavens.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #1 Black Heart Bart @ $3.00
Each Way Play: Race 8 #5 Guardini @ $10.00