3 minute read
As it so often does Flemington produces a card with huge depth and great betting races on Saturday.
Options aplenty for the Melbourne Mail but we will look to top and tail the card - saving our best for last with Pilot D'essai in the last.
He was turned over as a well backed favourite last time and now strikes a race of more depth - probably not what many would consider a great recipe for a bet of the day - but we think that he is perfectly set up to fire at Flemington on Saturday.
Royal Rapture beat him fair and square at the Valley and the tight turning track was quickly thrown up as an excuse. Perhaps there is something in that, but a look at his form would suggest that the reason sits with race shape. First up he was good behind Ulmann but the early speed there was very gentle. The storyline went that he raced wide and had a 'hard run' but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Off that he went to the Valley and got himself into a high pressure race where Royal Rapture, having his tenth run for the campaign, was too strong late. The fitter horse won in a tough test. The numbers point to Pilot D'Essai being good but perhaps short of a run off the jog jog fresh.
That hard run Valley race could be just what he needed and we are expected him to turn up at Flemington ready to play ball. With a big spike predicted we mark him a 5/4 chance and with early prices around the $3.00 mark we are keen to get involved.
For an each way play we will go back to the first - the staying handicap where a few turn up with the picket fences.
We are looking away from the current winning form and towards one building towards his peak in Lucques. In other words we are tipping that the here and now is about to become the there and then.
Lucques has built into his preparation beautifully and at his home track, a course and distance where he was a good winner last campaign, this shapes as an early target race for him. Things look to be lining up nicely and early markets are throwing up each way odds - delightful.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 9 #13 Pilote D'Essai @ $3.00
Each Way Play: Race 1 #6 Lucques @ $6.00