3 minute read
Turnbull Stakes day at Flemington with plenty of value to be found.
Great day of racing at Flemington headlined by the Turnbull Stakes.
I've covered that race in depth here, and am pretty keen to bet, but for the sake of hopefully finding a few more winners, we'll cover a couple of other races.
Plenty of races I'm keen to bet in but we'll label the best as Berkshire Breeze in the Bart Cummings.
He was clearly the run of the race in The Archer which looks the key lead up, given a horribly negative ride back in the field, running on in the fastest last splits of the race.
He ran to 107 on the R&S scale and holds a peak of 111 two starts back, and I'm convinced he's better than that given some of his starting prices. Now he draws inside and Ciaron Maher will have him absolutely screwed down to win this.
The stablemate Saint George comes through the Naturalism and while he had his chance there, I think anything he's doing over these shorter trips is a bonus because his form overseas was genuine 2800m and beyond areas.
He can improve again, the draw isn't ideal, but he'll also be spot on for this and can win with a good ride.
For the each-way play I'll go with Arran Bay in Race 6. The stat that jumps off the page is his second-up record, with 4 wins from 5 starts, including the past three.
From a ratings perspective, he's improved his R&S rating by 9, 11 and 4 pounds when he's stepped out second-up.
First-up he ran to 102 which is the same rating he ran fresh last time in, so he's right on track to run up to his best here, and if he does that with the 55.5kg he'll go close.
Royal Champion is the huge watch. He's rated 121 but I'd forecast he's a fair bit off that here and giving away 5.5kg to a horse like Arran Bay is a fair bit.
Arran Bay should lob up on speed, can slot into the 1-1 and should be right in the finish.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 7 #16 Berkshire Breeze at $4.60
Each-way play: Race 6 #5 Arran Bay at $8.50/3.00