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Timeform Australia handicapper Adam Blencowe has declared the Todman Stakes Australia's most interesting race on Saturday with many questions set to be answered.
The astute form student says he has the popcorn at the ready for a race that is likely to prove a great tool to identify the outcome of the world's richest two-year-old race on March 20 – the Golden Slipper.
One of the most important factors that is an unknown on Saturday.
The 1200m trip and the step up in distance poses more questions than answers when it comes to Profiteer according to Blencowe.
"The 1200m for these colts has us guessing," he said.
"I can see some punters having a niggle about Profiteer at 1200m and I can see exactly where that niggle is. I would have to say it is justified.
"The way he ran his race the other day would make 1200 a real stretch.
"We can look at the way he ran his race last time and the speed he showed through the middle, you could almost say he was too fast to get 1200 metres.
"If he can get 1200 metres like that were talking Luskin Star, that's where you're at. Probability is against you there.
"It's a big ask to produce something similar to what he did last time too but would he be as effective if they try to ride him quieter? There's some big queries here.
"Do you take away his asset to try and get 1200? Do you take away what he's good at because it's an asset. His speed through the midsection is going to blow some horses up.
"You don't want to give that away because you take away his advantage.
"Some horses run faster by going faster and if you take that away from them it deteriorates quickly. They loose all their flow from running fast.
"Redzel was a bit like that, they tried to grab him early in his career and it ruined him. Remember how it went when they tried to get Nature Strip to settle – how did that go?
"He might not be interested in being ridden like that either. The Inglis Millennium was just his second start, even if they try to restrain him he might still just want to take off.
"It's going to be very interesting to see how they try to ride him and how the horse reacts to it all."
The Randwick two-year-old contest will showcase the three colts at the head of Golden Slipper betting, two weeks out from the $3.5 million contest at Rosehill.
TAB.com.au's Golden Slipper all-in market has Profiteer as the $4.50 favourite ahead of Stay Inside at $5 and Remarque at $8.
The top price available for the three colts on Saturday's lead-up is $2.45 for Profiteer, $3.30 for Stay Inside and $4.50 for Remarque.
"I can pot Remarque," Blencowe said.
"Taking the ratings, speed figure as the main angle and he doesn't belong in there.
"I get that the trial pervs can see something and love him. Trials are not my things and I get the trial guys find the odd needle but it comes with plenty of hay.
"I've seen plenty of horses get knocked off on pretty trials so I've got to stick with my hay stacks, speed figures, and he just doesn't fit in with the top two here at all.
"Profiteer has run the best time so I could easily mark him the favourite.
"Stay Inside didn't quite have the same speed figure but it looks to me as a better piece of form. He looked to be doing it more within himself too.
"Profiteer was leading on the red line the while way whereas Stay Inside looked to keep a bit in the locker.
"I'd probably mark the two of them at $3 each but Stay Inside is probably the one I'd prefer to back."
Blencowe says he rates Remarque as a $6 chance along with another – that is at double-figure odds.
"There's no huge betting edge in the top few in the market but the one I could fit in along side a Remarque is Anamoe and his price looks a little bit wrong to me," he said.
"He's had the opportunity, which Remarque hasn't had so I get they might be on opposite sides of the mountain but runs on the board have got to be worth something.
"Blue Diamond was a good opportunity to show off. If you're any good, pressure, they ran fast, Anamoe had a chance to run a good figure and he did run a good figure.
"The betting is telling me Remarque is easily up to doing something like that and I suspect the betting is probably close to right but at the same time I can have something on the one with the runs on the board and have something on Anamoe at double-figure odds."
Online article taken from racenet.