3 minute read
Astute form man Adam Blencowe has put the sword to the john Sargent-trained Four Moves Ahead suggesting the filly should be a $21 chance in Saturday's Golden Slipper (1200m) at Rosehill.
The Timeform Australia handicapper can't believe the Sweet Embrace Stakes winner is the $5.50 third favourite for the race.
"To me she looks like a filly that typically starts 20s in a Slipper," Blencowe said.
"She might be the pick of the fillies', but they've been slow all season. They were slow in Melbourne and they are slow in Sydney. Immeasurably slower than the colts in both states.
"I have to take some sort of set in the market and I like the colts so it's out with the fillies' and she's the one, she gets squeezed, see you later."
Blencowe says the 2021 edition of the Golden Slipper is "such an interesting race" due to the ratings from the lead ups.
"You've got the bizarre situation where the Blue Diamond is the best bit of form which is a bit awkward because typically that doesn't happen," he said.
"The Todman and Reisling is where you look, that's step one, they are the races where the best horses go.
"In the last 10 years it's only been Kiamichi that came through another path (Magic Night Stakes) and that Slipper was bottomless.
"This year, the Todman was good. It was a solid Todman just not spectacular and not better than the Blue Diamond this year.
"The Reisling was terrible but the fillies have been no good the whole way through."
With that declaration you would think Blencowe is leaning to Artorius, Ingratiating and Anamoe as the major chances in the race but that's not the case.
"Even for a ratings nerd like me it's not as simple as backing the top-rated horse," he said.
"If it was that easy as that I'd be lying on a beach in the Maldives punting my brains out and you'd be speaking to Simon Dinopoulos who's declaring Avilius in the George Ryder.
"My start point was I think the Blue Diamond is the best bit of form but then the barrier draw came out and Artorius, Ingratiating and Anamoe all drew wide gates.
"Six of the last seven Slipper winners drew 11 or worse but go and look at their racing patterns.
"In my opinion the barriers are overplayed but that's not the case this year.
"We overrate geometry and underrate physics. Using your pace evenly is more important than how close you are to the paint (inside rail) and that's the problem for the Blue Diamond horses.
"They are almost certainly going to be ridden back in the field and be reliant on horses on speed being ridden inefficiently.
"If horses like Profiteer and Stay Inside are ridden efficiently, the chances of the Blue Diamond horses are in the hands of others. That tends not to work most times.
"I think the best form is disadvantaged."
With Blencowe now against those that he says has the best lead-up form, he's turned back to the Todman Stakes for the winner.
"I don't have a hugely strong opinion but I'm Stay Inside slightly ahead of Profiteer," he said.
"Stay Inside won very well and produced a big figure then was given very much a prep run in the Todman obviously with an eye to the Golden Slipper.
"He's the horse that's a coiled spring, ridden for a grand final last time while I think they rode Profiteer in the Todman thinking about the 1200 metre in the Golden Slipper.
"He was there to use himself more efficiently and have a 1200 metre run. I think Profiteer enhanced his Golden Slipper chances in the Todman even though he got beat.
"He was ridden to learn how to use his pace over 1200m. I don't think he'll be ridden so cute this time. It won't matter that he leaves a few oats on Saturday night, they'll be keen to cut the ribbons this time."
Stay Inside is on the second line of betting for the Golden Slipper at $4.60 with TAB.com.au behind the favourite Profiteer at $3.60.
Online article taken from the racenet.