3 minute read
Scott Embry provides his best bets for the Thoroughbred meeting at Belmont on Wednesday, 22nd May 2024. Brought to you by the TABtouch Blog.
RACE 1
STORYVILLE skipped away impressively to win her barrier trial by 4.7L leading into her debut. Barrier 12 of 12 is a big unknown but from what we've seen at the trials she's quick out and on paper this is not the deepest 2 year old event of recent times so we'll bank on the brilliance of the filly to get out fast and the brilliance of Pike to make the right decisions and give her filly the ride she requires. Looks well above average. SO FAB found the line on debut behind Street Band and now only has 52kg. Expect she'll be positive out of the machine after showing speed at trials. SATIN BOW comes through the same race and maps a lot kinder here second-up. SCENIC GEORGE was probably in the wrong part of the track first-up.
Numbers: 12 – 5 – 4 – 1
Suggested Bet – STORYVILLE WIN
RACE 2
Taylor pair FAMOUS JURNEY and CROSS STATEMENT are both honest on speed campaigners who are well suited to 0MWLY conditions. Expect they'll look to control the pace between the two of them (assuming they both start) and given the barriers leaning towards Cross Statement after yet another brave effort behind Rockin' Rupert last start. PLAYING GAMES was bitterly disappointing last start at Pinjarra, however, her previous form when beating beaten a head by The Boss Lady and then splitting Twain's Angel and Brave Spirit is outstanding. THE LADY IS A VAMP improves sharply second-up and gets a senior rider on.
Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 3
Suggested Bet – CROSS STATEMENT WIN
RACE 3 Best Bet
JOKERS GRIN is the full brother to former stable star Cup Night and powered away from rivals in a recent 4L barrier trial win. He sat three deep throughout in that trial and extended away impressively late in a strong display. With even luck think he can give this a big shake on debut. Like the look of him and going to roll the dice on debut. SPIRIT OF GEORGE made his debut in a 3 year old 62+ and finished only 3.5L off undefeated stablemate Twain's Angel and subsequent 3 year old winner Brave Spirit. Great form for a maiden. SKYTALKER has had a following since his big 2 year old debut. CAP CAVOUR has a few barrier issues but has ability.
Numbers: 8 – 7 – 4 – 5
Suggested Bet – JOKERS GRIN WIN
RACE 4
SNIP OF ACES was a handful on debut. He raced erratically early and caused a bit of carnage and then looked like he ran his race in patches switching on and switching off. Sent back to trials and now attacks this 1400. We've seen Reliable Queen run well in a C3 since and we've seen the third horse One Target win a race. Like the form, like the set up – just a trust issue with a very raw horse. Eachway required. STRYKER'S GAL has finished in the money 3 of her 4 starts to date. Will need to overcome a tricky barrier but looks one of the main players. CHEVAP comes through the same race and is drawn far better here. RIVERCREST MAGIC finished third in a C1 last start and drops 1kg back into a maiden.
Numbers: 5 – 12 – 11 – 13
Suggested Bet – SNIP OF ACES EACHWAY
RACE 5
MAGIC BELLE is likely to go round double figures in a race where she can probably find the front and give cheek. Was run down comfortably last start in a 3 year old 0MWLY but they've gone 4.5L faster than average and as the meeting went on it became clear the fence was the worst place to be. Don't discount. OSCAR CHARLIE was highly impressive on debut and the second horse Lifeisbutadream has bolted in since at $1.40 to frank the form. WRITTEN MELODY hasn't been seen for over a month since her trial and if she's going to be vulnerable it's likely first-up 1000m getting back. SUNLIT FRESCO is a maiden with ability but drawn awkwardly.
Numbers: 8 – 4 – 7 – 10
Suggested Bet – MAGIC BELLE EACHWAY
RACE 6
KISSES FROM KELLY has barrier 15 and 60kg but is already a C1 1650m winner at Belmont Park and considering Tenacious Reward and Lova Session ran the quinella in the Westspeed 1600 last Saturday it looks like great form dropping back into a C1. Will need a big ride. WEERAECHOUX was popular in betting last start but couldn't get into the race in a messy sit and sprint. Racing like he wants 1650. Has more talent than his strike rate suggests. HENRY HAS SPOKEN has run well in both runs this time in and can lead from the inside. KIRALUI has been there abouts all campaign and now gets Pike.
Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 7
Suggested Bet – KISSES FROM KELLY EACHWAY
RACE 7
CAPO VELOCE is bursting to win a race. Back in his 3 year old days he ran third to Wild Belle and Malkar Pindari in a Saturday race but has been a little below his best ever since, however, his two runs this time in have been excellent and provided they can make ground he'll be hard to hold out late. PLAYING QUEST finished fifth first-up but was beaten less than half a length in the same race and improves for the run. VALDARENA drops in grade off her last start win and showed versatility. PROTÉGÉ can kick through to lead and control.
Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 3
Suggested Bet – CAPO VELOCE WIN
RACE 8
LINDEN'S GOLD is going far better than it reads on paper. Has had genuine excuses in his last two and now off the 7-day back-up he has a senior rider engaged and strikes an open and even C3. Winner with 60kg previously, all three victories are under Chris Parnham and likely to go round eachway. ALBERICH has his first start in WA for Mitch Pateman and while 1300m might be on the shorter side of his best he's drawn a gate and is a proven weight carrier. Big watch. EL PATRON is no star but he's going well and sits up over the speed. FLASH PADDY was a great run fresh. In for a big prep.
Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 7
Suggested Bet – LINDEN'S GOLD EACHWAY
Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)1,4,7,8,9,10
1,3,6,7
1,3,5,6
1,2,4
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