3 minute read
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Last Week's Recap
None of my long shot picks really got going last week as Rahm almost hunted down compatriot Hidalgo. After missing a golden opportunity to win it in regular time, the youngster held his nerve in the playoff holes to notch his first Euro victory. To do so over his idol at his home tournament would've made it even sweeter.
THIS WEEK'S EVENT
More weak field, early season action on the PGA so I'll be writing up the Euro once again. We'll be heading to the home of golf as the amateurs get a chance to walk the hallowed grounds of St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kinsbarns alongside the best of Europe. The multi-course format mirrors Pebble Beach, with the top amateurs able to play a full four rounds if they make the top-20 in the teams event even if their partner somehow has missed the professional cut.
There's not much that hasn't already been said about the three host courses. St Andrews and Kingsbarns are certainly the easiest of the three, with the Old Course in particular proving to be a bit of a pushover if conditions are favourable. With rain and not much wind forecast, this looks like it will be more a battle of staying warm than negotiating bending iron shots.
Make sure to keep the relative difficulty in mind when considering in-play betting. Carnoustie is easily a shot and half more difficult than the other pair with that differential increasing should winds come in stronger than forecast.
COURSE HISTORY AND FIT
For history I'll focus mainly on St Andrews, which the winner will need to play two rounds at – but I'll give a call out to anything major popping up at the other tracks.
It's Tommy Fleetwood who leads the way at the Old Course, with a string of strong performances prior to his disappointing showing last year. He plays over a shot and quarter better than expected here and has the most experience of anyone in the field. Other notables include Shane Lowry, who has played almost a stroke per round better across an almost identical sample size to Fleetwood, and Ty Hatton whose performances have fallen in between but over a smaller number of rounds.
At the other end Rory McIlroy is a surprising name to find – despite gaining strokes on average he's done nowhere near as well as he should have and will take in around a fifth of a stroke hit to his baseline expectation as a result.
Fleetwood and Hatton have also played blistering golf at Carnoustie, with both well over 2-strokes better than expected on the tricky track, while Lowry has done well at Kinsgbarns over his 12 rounds.
BETTING MARKETS
After his strong showing last week Rahm has been installed as favourite ahead of Rory. While this aligns nicely with his red hot form, there are a couple of qualitative factors punters may want to take into account. Rahm is (apparently) only playing here in an effort to hold onto his Euro Tour card and maintain eligibility for Ryder Cup selection. He also welcomed his third child just a couple of days ago, although historically this hasn't been the distraction most think it could be.
Punters certainly aren't taking too much notice as Rahm has seen strong interest after threatening to blow out a couple of times during early trade. Rory has enjoyed his time back home, with a pair of runner up finishes to his name. There shouldn't be any question of his hunger here as he's playing with his old man and would love to lift the team and individual trophies, as Fitzpatrick did last year).
At fifth favourite, Koepka is receiving a decent chunk of attention and having done not a whole lot in his appearances outside of LIV maybe he's keen to remind the golfing world he exists.
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Winner) Jon Rahm for 2 units (Rated at $6.70)
I'm going to play the numbers this week and on those alone, Rahm is a max play. His form has seen him return to number three in the model ratings and personally I don't think he'll be wanting for motivation here, the guy is just too much of a competitor.
BACK: (Winner) Tyrrell Hatton for 0.75 units (Rated at $11.70)
Love finding value on a bloke who has an affinity for the track(s). He'll be another looking to repeat the family victory and maybe having his Dad around might mellow him out somewhat.
BACK: (Winner) Tommy Fleetwood for 0.25 units (Rated at $14.00)
It's all quality this week as another local with a great track record pops up as a small, but worthwhile value play.
BACK: (Winner) Sebastian Soderberg for 0.25 units (Rated at $80.00)
Thought I'd better chuck in a long shot given the unpredictable nature of links golf and there's a huge overlay available on the Swede who is coming off a pair of MCs but prior to that was in ripping form.