3 minute read
The mad end-of-year rush of games begins, this weekend being the first of nine rounds of football between now and early January.
Manchester City meet Tottenham in a must win game for both sides – this is clearly the highlight of a round that also features a mouth-watering south coast derby between Bournemouth and Brighton, and the clash of struggling Arsenal and surprise packets Forest.
LEICESTER v CHELSEA
History: Not a happy fixture for Leicester who have won just six of 34 EPL clashes. The last two meetings at the King Power have resulted in 3-0 and 3-1 wins to the visitors.
Overview: After back-to-back wins in early October, it has been a struggle for Leicester, picking up just one point against Ipswich in their last four. The problem lies in a porous defence, with 18 conceded in the past seven games in all competitions.
Chelsea's upward surge has stalled in the last two games, sharing the points at Old Trafford then at home at Arsenal last time. The last two away games in the league have been tough ones – Liverpool and Man U. They need to get all three here to stay on top of a cluster of sides battling for third spot. Best case scenario after this one is third position, worst is unbelievably tenth!
Prediction: Chelsea to win at $1.55.
ARSENAL v NOTTINGHAM FOREST
History: Arsenal has won three of four since Forest's return to the top-flight in 22/23. The two games at the Emirates have been won by Arsenal by an aggregate of 7-1.
Overview: It has been a rough six weeks or so for the Gunners. Two points from a possible 12 in the league, and a loss in Milan to Inter in the UCL. The goals have dried up which, given the talent on tap, is mystifying. Odegaard should be 100% now so it is game-on from here. They need to average at least 2.5 points per match from here on to be a chance of the title so anything but a win in this sort of fixture is unacceptable.
Forest finally came undone at home to Newcastle before the break. It was only the second time this season that they had conceded more than one goal – the 3-1 scoreline to the Magpies was a fair indication of the match. The international weekend probably came at the right time to allow for a reset. It is too early to say the bubble has burst; they will give Arsenal problems.
Prediction: Arsenal to win at $1.36.
ASTON VILLA v CRYSTAL PALACE
History: Palace thumped Villa 5-0 in the last league meeting on final day 23/24 at Selhurst Park – The Eagles were soaring at the time and Villa perhaps hung over after qualifying for the Champions League the round prior. Villa has won five and drawn two of the last seven meetings at home.
Overview: The slippery slope for Villa continued at Anfield a fortnight ago when they were game but ultimately second best, a fourth loss on the trot in all competitions. The schedule is relentless, with Juventus coming to town on Wednesday for a massive UCL tie. Emery's job is to keep his squad fresh and focussed under the weight of fixtures, and it is proving difficult as we suspected it might at the start of the campaign. Lose this and incredibly they may see themselves in the bottom half.
Palace's revival came to an end at home to Fulham in round 11. A goal late in each half did the damage, and the Eagles' inability to convert chances proved costly … again. Curiously, Palace away from home have been difficult to beat this season, with a draw at Stamford Bridge and a win at Villa Park in the Carabao Cup the highlights.
Prediction: Aston Villa to win at $1.60.
BOURNEMOUTH v BRIGHTON
History: Fairly even across ten EPL fixtures to date, with Bournemouth winning five and Brighton four. At the Vitality, Bournemouth has won four of five including a 3-0 whitewash last season.
Overview: Potentially the match of the round. Bournemouth lost 3-2 at Brentford before the break in one of the games of the season to date. It ended a run of stellar form that saw them take the scalps of Arsenal and Man City on home soil. In fact, only Chelsea has left the Vitality with all three points this campaign. Like today's opponents, they play attractive attacking football, with some deft passing and wonderful movement off the ball.
Brighton also brought the champions to their knees recently, coming from a goal down to defeat City 2-1 at home a fortnight ago. Like the Cherries they are no overawed by big name opponents; sometimes this cavalier approach brings them undone on the counter. Only Liverpool and Chelsea have got the better of the Seagulls this season. s
Prediction: Bournemouth to win at $2.40.
EVERTON v BRENTFORD
History: A good fixture for Everton in the past two seasons, winning three of four including both clashes at Goodison by 1-0.
Overview: Everton went to West Ham and grabbed an important point in their last game. It wasn't a classic by any stretch – typical of recent efforts that have seen the Toffees' defence tighten up and as a result they have suffered just one defeat in seven. Sean Dyche's side hasn't faced any sides of late that can tear up an opposition, so Brentford poses a new challenge.
Thomas Frank's side moved into that cluster of nine teams sitting from 3rd to 11th with a thrilling win over the in-form Bournemouth a fortnight ago. It was another dazzling display from the surprise entertainers of the competition. The worry for supporters is that away from the Gtech they are a different proposition; four games this season for four losses although to be fair three of them were against Man City, Liverpool and Spurs.
Prediction: Draw at $3.50.
FULHAM v WOLVES
History: Wolves largely had the better of Fulham until the last two seasons which have been tight – a win apiece and two draws. In eight EPL meetings since 18/19, there have been three draws and five results with only a goal the difference.
Overview: Fulham's excellent campaign gained momentum prior to the break with back-to-back wins over London rivals Brentford and Palace. Two of Fulham's three losses this season were in the balance until late in the game, the other against Villa was delicately poised until a send-off. Bottom line, this is a difficult side to conquer, particularly at home.
Wolves finally broke the ice with a win over fellow strugglers Southampton in round 11. They have now scored in 13 straight games in all competitions, so if they get the defence right brighter days lie ahead. Their last four away fixtures have yielded 13 goals which is a concern. This is historically tight so Fulham at 1.70 is a bit skinny.
Prediction: Draw at $4.00.
MANCHESTER CITY v TOTTENHAM
History: Spurs is one of City's few bogey teams. In the past five seasons, Tottenham has managed to pick up 17 points in this meeting.
Overview: City's loss at Brighton before the international break made it four in a row in all competitions, the first time that has happened to the club in 16 years. It also the first time Guardiola has lost four straight in his managerial career. Even before that streak, the wins were unconvincing. Is it the 115 charges looming, staleness, or have other managers worked them out? Whatever the case, Liverpool may disappear in the distance if they lose for a fifth consecutive time. On the positive side, it was December 2022 when they last tasted defeat at the Etihad.
Spurs cannot maintain momentum. Just when they look like a top four side, a dismal performance like the loss at home to Ipswich comes along. That one would have stung a bit more as it was on their patch which had been impregnable up until then. A strong history against the champions will give them some hope. Lose here and they sink as low as 13th, piling heaps of pressure on Ange.
Prediction: Manchester City to win at $1.55.
SOUTHAMPTON v LIVERPOOL
History: Predictably this has been dominated by the Reds. Southampton has recorded just one win in the past 16 top-flight matchups.
Overview: Southampton's morale boosting 1-0 win over Everton was expunged at Molineaux when they were clearly second best. Save for a 3-0 loss against Man U, when they were the better side for the first 30 minutes, their home games have been most competitive. Taking on a confident Liverpool side does look a bridge too far though.
Liverpool clinically put away Villa at their last game to open a five-point gap at the top of the table. This has elevated them to $2.30 title favourites after $9 was bet. If Spurs do them a favour the day before, a win here will probably see them firm into red odds. The squad is fit, confident, and defensively sound. There is no better team attacking from their own half. It's hard to see the Saints offering enough resistance.
Prediction: Liverpool to win at $1.30.
IPSWICH v MANCHESTER UTD
History: No league meetings since 2002.
Overview: Ipswich recorded their first Premier League win in a generation when they caused a boilover at Tottenham a fortnight ago. When Spurs pegged one back with 21 minutes to play most expected the favourites to go on with it, but Ipswich dug deep and recorded a most important victory for the club. The lead-up form had been a worry, particularly in defence, so to keep a side like Spurs to one goal at home is a huge performance. Backing such an effort up again and again is the key to survival.
Manchester Utd has Ruben Amorim in the dugout for the first time after a successful interim spell by club legend Ruud Van Nistelrooy. The change in energy levels and body language of the team was evident. Something wasn't right with Ten Hag and it was all peeled back in the past three weeks, with 11 goals scored in four games, and only three conceded. It is too late for them to make a serious dent in this campaign, but on the form shown in the past four games a top four finish is not out of the question, given how tight things are just ahead of them.
Prediction: Manchester Utd to win at $1.65.
NEWCASTLE v WEST HAM
History: Recently dominated by Newcastle who has won five of the last ten, with four drawn. Plenty of goals recently – 11 last season and an average of 4.3 per game over the last five campaigns.
Overview: Newcastle had a bumpy October but has turned it around. It started with a Carabao Cup win over Chelsea then parlayed into league wins over Arsenal and Forest, scoring three away against the latter who until then were a very difficult side to break down. The injury list is nowhere near as bad as it has been for a while so things are looking up on Tyneside.
West Ham on the other hand continue to disappoint. Their turgid 0-0 draw at home to Everton epitomised their season to date – little creativity, sluggishness, a side lacking confidence. This is the last place you want to visit when travelling at less than 100%, so it looks like another bleak afternoon for Hammers faithful who are starting to look over their shoulders at the dreaded drop zone.
Prediction: Newcastle to win at $1.55.
SUGGESTED WAGERS
Manchester City to win and both teams to score: 2 units at $2.40.
Newcastle to lead at halftime and fulltime: 3 units at $2.30.