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The Middle East Oil Derby kicks off Round 6, with Saudi-owned Newcastle clashing with UAE’s Manchester City in the early game on Saturday evening AEST time. Chelsea v Brighton and Man U v Spurs are other headline games.
The four undefeated sides going into the last round remain that way at the end of five matches. Forest is the surprise inclusion in that group after their fiery draw with Brighton.
The much-awaited clash of Man City and Arsenal changed complexion after another Gunners' send-off. It was like a backs v forwards training drill for the last 55 minutes, with City grabbing a late, late equaliser. Moral victory points went to Arsenal.
The top of the table is reasonably congested as one would expect so early on. Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool look the goods and should fill the trifecta come season end, but Villa and Chelsea have made positive starts and look to be in for strong campaigns.
NEWCASTLE v MANCHESTER CITY
History: This fixture has been dominated by Man City in recent seasons which is hardly surprising. Newcastle won in January 2019 but since then, in ten league meetings, the scorecard reads eight wins to City and two draws.
Form: Newcastle continued their vulnerable away form, thoroughly outplayed 3-1 at Fulham last weekend. Their two home matches to date have yielded single goal wins, but those victories over Southampton and Spurs were far from convincing.
Man City yielded their first points of the campaign at home to Arsenal last weekend. After dominating early, a controversial opener for the Gunners and a goal from a corner put them behind for the second week in a row at home. The send-off of Trossard turned the second half into a bit of a farce, with Arsenal defending grimly until the final seconds.
The big story out of the game is the injury to Rodri, potentially for the season. Guardiola will adapt, but his absence cannot be underestimated.
Overview: Neither side is firing on all cylinders despite their lofty table positions. I don't think City are good things as their inability to break open ten men last weekend, and a lack of variation when all else failed, gives Newcastle some hope. The Magpies showed against Spurs what a good side they can be defensively with their backs to the wall.
Prediction: Draw at $4.33.
ARSENAL v LEICESTER
History: The Gunners have lost once to Leicester at home since 1973! In the two seasons prior to Leicester's relegation in 22/23, Arsenal won all four meetings by an aggregate of 11-2.
Form: They didn't get the three points that looked theirs in the 95th minute, but Arsenal can walk away from their match at City last weekend confident that they have what it takes to win this title. But for two silly send-offs, they could be on 15 points, not 11. A 25-goal-per-season striker is all that holds them back from being the best side in the country.
Leicester was second best in the first half at home to Everton but grew into the match. After an equaliser in the 73rd minute, they looked the most likely to snatch a win in a game played in conditions akin to a tropical summer, with rain lashing down and a storm so fierce it delayed the commencement of the second half. In the end, it was a third draw in five which keeps them out of the drop zone.
Overview: There is no such thing as a certainty in the Premier League, or any major sporting code for that matter, but it would be an upset of seismic proportions if Arsenal didn't get all three points here.
Prediction: Arsenal win at $1.16.
BRENTFORD v WEST HAM
History: A good fixture for the Bees since their arrival in the Premier League three seasons back. They have won five of the six clashes, the Hammers finally getting a win over their cross-London rivals when they last met in February at London Stadium.
Form: Brentford opened the scoring inside 30 seconds for the second week in a row, then went on and lost for the second week in a row, when they were outclassed by Spurs across town last weekend. The squad has been hammered by injuries, and Toney's departure, but remain competitive. They are managing good possession shares against quality opposition and, when a few of the regulars are back on board, can look forward to a decent season.
West Ham made it three losses from the first three home games of the campaign when thumped by Chelsea, the first time they have done so in the club's history. Losing to City, Villa and Chelsea is hardly cause for alarm, but the manner of the capitulation against the Blues was distressing. Too easy to play through, a yard slower across the park, and looking from the outside to be putting in about 80%.
Overview: Both sides come here without a win in their past two, but Brentford can feel a lot better about their form. Unless the Hammers' energy levels pick up, Brentford might fly the lids again and put this out of the visitor's reach.
Prediction: Brentford win at $2.20.
CHELSEA v BRIGHTON
History: Chelsea pulled off the double over Brighton last season after the Seagulls did the same thing to the Blues the campaign prior. Brighton's win at Stamford Bridge in April 2023 was the only one in 11 all-time clashes in the capital.
Form: The Chelsea experiment might be starting to pay dividends. Although the opposition was meek, their demolition of West Ham away last weekend was impressive. Jackson is growing in confidence, supported by a cavalcade of star players. They proved the week before against Bournemouth that they can win ugly as well.
Although they remain undefeated, Brighton may feel they should be top of the league by now. Firstly, they were unable to capitalise on being a man to the good against Arsenal, then failed to score at home against Ipswich, then let a lead go at home to Forest. Regardless, their season is on track, and they continue to play a splendid passing game that is easy on the eye.
Overview: Forest showed how vulnerable Brighton can be on the break. They face a Chelsea side whose three goals against West Ham all came from very deep build-ups. The Blues are relentless when creating momentum from broken play and can score a few in this one, which promises to be the match of the round.
Prediction: Chelsea win at $1.70.
EVERTON v CRYSTAL PALACE
History: Despite tumultuous times this has been a happy encounter for the Toffees recently, with four wins and three draws in their last seven meetings in all competitions.
Form: For the third week in a row, Everton led and were the better side into the second half. This time, the lead was only one and this time they kept the damage to one goal against Leicester to get away with the first point of the campaign. Strong rumours of new American ownership might lift the spirits. The football played by the Toffees for long patches in their games has been fine, it's the late capitulations that have cost them.
Palace hosted Man United last weekend in one of the more entertaining 0-0 draws we are likely to see this season. It could have been 3-3, with the visitors looking more likely early and rattling the woodwork a couple of times. Palace closed well though and on another day Eze slots his chance and they grab an unlikely win.
Overview: These sides are two of six in the league searching for their first win of the season. A loss for either would be quite damaging even at this early stage. Very hard game to call.
Prediction: Draw at $3.30.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v FULHAM
History: Interesting history between these two. The four meetings since Forest arrived in the Premier League have seen Fulham win three, Forest one. Prior to that, the sides hadn't met in the top-flight since 1968. The stand-out feature recently is the lack of draws – just one in the last 19 encounters.
Form: Looking forward to this one. Not the most fashionable sides in the league but both are going nicely, particularly Forest who kept the unbeaten start going with a fiery 2-2 at Brighton. That ability to achieve good results away from home is what Forest need to drag themselves out of another relegation fight. Good recruitment and a wily manager sees them in their best position in the top-flight for close to 30 years.
Fulham was ultra-impressive in disposing of Newcastle at Craven Cottage. They are a constant threat going forward, many times driven by the brute Traore. Their only defeat was in the dying stages and totally against the run of play against Man U on opening day.
Overview: Few would have thought these teams would be in the top half after five matches, with only one defeat collectively. Another very difficult game to predict – the home ground advantage tips it slightly Forest's way.
Prediction: Forest win at $2.40.
WOLVES v LIVERPOOL
History: Wolves stunned Liverpool 3-0 in February 2023, but that is their only win over the Reds in the EPL since 2010, a run of 16 games. Liverpool pulled off the double last season.
Form: Wolves are being unfairly hounded in some quarters but I'm in the camp that says they are playing better than their record suggests. Their start has been difficult, with four of the first five fixtures against sides widely tipped to finish in the top six or seven. The other was against the undefeated Nottingham Forest. They outplayed Villa early last week and led, but the comeback kings were too classy in the end. With patience, the results will come when they play teams around them in the table.
Liverpool bounced back from their shock defeat at home to Forest with a confident display against Bournemouth at Anfield. The visitors were unlucky not to go ahead early, and it is fair to say the 3-0 score probably flattered the Reds a little although they certainly deserved the win. Luis Diaz is nearly unplayable at present and will give Wolves nightmares.
Overview: This will be entertaining, and I fancy there could be quite a few goals. Wolves will give a good account, but they might need to wait until November/December to climb the ladder – the fixture list looks a lot kinder then.
Prediction: Liverpool win $1.36.
IPSWICH v ASTON VILLA
History: The only recent meetings were in the three seasons between 16/17 and 18/19 when Villa was in the Championship. Ipswich had the better of those encounters, but the clubs have gone in far different directions since.
Form: Ipswich hasn't made a bad fist of its long-awaited return to the top-flight. After a couple of predictable losses to City and Liverpool, three straight draws have steadied the ship. After a slow start away at Southampton the Tractor Boys grabbed the point they deserved deep into stoppage time. Defensively they look solid, but one wonders how many goals they have in them at this level.
Villa has overcome slow starts to win their last two clashes, with the injection of Jonh Duran pivotal in those outcomes. Wolves really served it up to Villa who might have been a bit sluggish coming off a Champions League tie. But Emery's side is an irresistible force once it rolls into action – only Arsenal has stopped them to date and that was partly good management, partly good luck.
Overview: It doesn't get any easier for Ipswich who have met three of last season's top four in the opening six rounds. Villa cannot drop points in matches such as this if they are any hope of troubling the big three. The price on offer is surprisingly generous.
Prediction: Aston Villa win at $1.83.
MANCHESTER UTD v TOTTENHAM
History: Man U has just had the better of Spurs in recent seasons, winning four and drawing two of the last eight meetings. The two Tottenham wins in that time included a 6-1 demolition job at Old Trafford in October 2020.
Form: Man United teased fans with a two wins by an aggregate of 10-0 over Southampton then Barnsley (Carabao Cup). However, after a plethora of scoring chances of their own, and some marvellous keeping by Onana, they walked away from Selhurst with a 0-0 draw last weekend. More disturbingly, they could only manage a draw with Dutch side FC Twente at home midweek in the Europa League. This side lacks the talent or leadership to do better than 6th or 7th this season.
Spurs overcame Mbeumo's goal after 25 seconds to dispose of Brentford 3-1 at home, but it wasn't that easy. Despite a depleted squad the Bees caused Spurs plenty of problems. Maddison's late goal settled the issue, but no one could have begrudged Brentford something from the game. Like today's opponents, a top-six finish for Spurs would be an excellent outcome on what we have seen to date.
Overview: Both sides come off midweek European fixtures (Spurs at home Friday morning AEST). Goal difference is all that puts Tottenham ahead of Man U on a mid-table seven points. Needless to say this is a must-win game for both sides. Set pieces could be crucial, with de Ligt looking dangerous for Man U in those situations. It's hard to tip either of these with any degree of confidence.
Prediction: Draw at $3.80.
BOURNEMOUTH v SOUTHAMPTON
History: In a strange twist in this south coast derby, the side at home has won only one of the last 11 meetings. In fact, on home turf, Bournemouth is now four games without scoring in all competitions against the Saints.
Form: Bournemouth looked very good at times but an 11-minute onslaught by Liverpool put their game to bed at Anfield last weekend. The Cherries are an attractive side with the ball and create a lot of chances – that scoreline didn't do them credit. Back-to-back losses to heavyweight opponents have taken the gloss off a promising start, although the defeat to Chelsea could easily have gone the other way.
Southampton looked all set for their first win back in the top-flight until a deflected shot from outside the box in the 95th minute took that away against Ipswich. The Saints show enterprise going forward – they have a future star in Tyler Dibling. But defensively they can be shambolic. Unless they get that sorted, they are heading straight back down.
Overview: Save for a quarter of an hour at Anfield last weekend Bournemouth have been more than a match for all opponents to date. They have plenty of attacking weapons in their arsenal and Southampton will struggle to stem the tide.
Prediction: Bournemouth win at $1.65.
SUGGESTED WAGERS
Aston Villa to win: 3 units at $1.82.
Bournemouth to win: 3 units at $1.65.
Chelsea to win and both teams to score: 2 units at $3.00.