3 minute read
Pep Guardiola’s quest to win the Champions League with Manchester City faces a stiff test on Tuesday night as they take on Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals.
Key stats
Bayern Munich have lost one of their last 30 away Champions League games.
Twenty-two of Man City’s last 30 home Champions League games have featured three or more goals.
Man City have gone 1-0 down in both Champions League home fixtures in which they have conceded.
Bayern Munich have opened the scoring in 11 of their last 12 in all competitions.
Verdict
Since the 2019/2020 season, Manchester City have reached the quarter-finals, final and semi-finals of the Champions League, being defeated by fellow English side Chelsea in the showpiece game in 2021.
Last year's semi-final elimination at the hands of Real Madrid was one of the more remarkable moments in Champions League history. City led 5-3 on aggregate in the 90th minute only to lose 6-5.
They’ll have to be at their best to topple a Bayern Munich side that have managed to avoid defeat in 29 of their last 30 Champions League away games. They’ve won the majority and a positive result would make life tough for City in Bavaria.
City have hit top gear, winning their last nine games and scoring 31 goals in the process. Erling Haaland has 12 of those and he’s no stranger to being a threat to Bayern, with six goal involvements in seven meetings with Bayern Munich as a player.
Matthijs de Ligt will have the task of keeping Haaland quiet but you suspect City’s slick ball movement will threaten the Bayern backline in wide areas at some stage and half a yard is all he needs.
Another key battle is which team will have the better opening 20 minutes. The Etihad will be buoyant at kick-off and whilst City may dominate possession in the early stages, Bayern have the experience to manage the situation and provide a threat on the counter.
Guardiola’s men have taken time to grow into games this season and when teams have scored at the Etihad, they’ve often opened the scoring. Sevilla and Borussia Dortmund both took the lead here before going on to lose.
Goals from Mohamed Salah, Dejan Kulusevski, Ivan Toney and a John Stones own-goal have also caused City to fall behind at home this season and it’s something Bayern will be aware they can exploit. They’ve scored first in 11 of their last 12 games.
Even if the Germans do open the scoring, Man City have the quality to bounce back. They’ve won the last four Champions League games in which they’ve fallen behind at the Etihad and you suspect they’ll put Bayern under pressure and make them pay at some stage.
Suggested bets
Bayern Munich to score first
Over 2.5 goals
First Man City goalscorer - Erling Haaland
Correct score: Manchester City 2-1 Bayern Munich