3 minute read
Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
ARSENAL VS BRIGHTON
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 2 units @ $1.60
Both sides are 2/2 this season. Brighton have scored five goals and conceded one, and Arsenal have scored four and not conceded. Arsenal have won their last two matches against Brighton without conceding a goal, while the last three meetings in this fixture have produced a winner-to-nil. Arsenal have won 9/10 home matches while Brighton have lost 6/8 away matches against top-six teams. There has been Over 2.5 goals in 9/12 Brighton away matches against top-six teams.
There is no value in backing Arsenal at $1.35 so we can take the $1.60 on Over 2.5 goals as that looks assured. Four of the past five meetings went Over 2.5 yet just one of the past 10 between them went Over 3.5 goals. The scores were 3-0, 2-0, 0-3, 4-2 and 1-2. The only danger I see is six of the past 10 games were 0-0 at half time and three had one first half goal and just one had two first half goals. There has only been one draw in the past 10 meetings.
BRENTFORD VS SOUTHAMPTON
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 2 units @ $1.80
Brentford have won 7/8 home matches against promoted teams while bottom-six promoted teams have lost 62% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2019-20. There are four previous meetings in the Premier League. Two in season 22/23 and two in 21/22. The scores were 2-0, 3-0, 3-0, 1-4.
Brentford have won each of the last three meetings with Southampton by an aggregate score of 8-0, keeping three consecutive clean sheets. They need a win after two tough games against Crystal Palace and Liverpool and this should end up having more than two goals for us.
EVERTON VS BOURNEMOUTH
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 3 units @ $1.95
Currently rooted to the bottom of the table, Everton will really push the emergency button if they lose this one. They have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Bournemouth have scored first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Bournemouth have won 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. Everton have won their last two home matches against Bournemouth without conceding a goal, but have lost four of their last six meetings with Bournemouth.
The last draw between these sides was back in August 2018. There are nearly always three or more goals when these teams meet. The past six games were 1-2, 3-0, 1-0, 0-3, 1-3 and 1-3.
Bournemouth away games have gone Over 2.5 goals 15 times in their past 20 matches which is 75% or a price of $1.33 so the $1.95 we are being offered here is a bargain and great value.
IPSWICH VS FULHAM
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 3.5 goals) Over 3.5 goals for 1 unit @ $2.40
Another possible game for goals. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 5/5 Fulham away matches against promoted teams. Fulham have won the first half in 3/5 away matches against promoted teams. It's been a long time since Ipswich were in the Premier League so they are an unknown betting proposition at the moment. All we know is they have lost 2/2 and conceded six goals and scored one. To be fair to Ipswich, after an absence of 22 years, it was a tough ask to face Liverpool and Manchester City first up. This should be a lot easier.
Fulham were unbeaten in all last season's away games at newly promoted sides, albeit winning only once at Luton. However, across those three away fixtures, 16 goals were scored, and this could be another entertaining, high-scoring affair.
No stadium in the Championship witnessed more goals last season than Portman Road, where 91 goals were scored across 23 matches—or, in other words, 3.96 per game. Fulham comes into this match having seen over 2.5 goals scored in six of their eight most recent Premier League away games.
LEICESTER VS ASTON VILLA
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Aston Villa for 2 units @ $1.86
Leicester may be back in the Premier League, but it will only be for one season. They will be relegated, especially as they face a record points deduction for financial misconduct and that will kill their season. New manager Steve Cooper is capable, but the level required to stay in this league is just not achievable with this group of players.
After finishing top four last season, thanks to Spurs falling off a cliff late in the season, Villa will look to keep that position this year. They won't make top four, as Manchester City, Arsenal and probably Liverpool have three of those positions locked in, but they will stay in Europe. They gave Arsenal a great game for most of the 90 minutes last weekend, and two clear cut chances missed by Ollie Watkins cost them any chance of a win or draw in that one.
Leicester were very lucky to get a draw against Tottenham and will struggle to hold a very well drilled Villa side.
WEST HAM VS MANCHESTER CITY
Betting Strategy
City are unbeaten in each of their last 20 games against West Ham across all competitions, winning six of their last seven matches against the Hammers in the Premier League. They have never lost a Premier League match against the Hammers under manager Pep Guardiola, including a record breaking victory last time out, a 3-1 win that secured a fourth straight title.
This is a new look West Ham side under Julen Lopetegui, with a much improved squad and if they are ever going to break their hoodoo against the champions then perhaps this is the time. I suspect they will make changes and play a far more defensive line up, which may reduce the number of goals in the game, but it is unlikely to change the outcome. It should be 21 games unbeaten for City against this opponent after this one, but there is no value from a betting angle.
CHELSEA VS CRYSTAL PALACE
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Chelsea for 2 units @ $1.66
Chelsea have a formidable record against their London rivals winning the last 10 meetings in a row. They have kept clean sheets in five of them and have outscored Palace 25-6. Four of the games were 0-0 at half time and five of them had two first half goals. Two of them had three first half goals. The past four meetings, covering the past two seasons 3-1, 2-1, 1-0 and 2-1.
Chelsea ended last season with a six match unbeaten run and have only lost two of their past 15 games, and Palace are a bit of a mess right now, so this should be a straightforward win for the home team.
NEWCASTLE VS TOTTENHAM
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 3.5 goals) Over 3.5 goals for 2 units @ $2.00
A solid test for both sides, as they both have top four aspirations. Newcastle finished top four two seasons back, but were beset by injury last season and ran out of steam to finish seventh. Spurs finished fifth in their first season under Ange Postecoglou, which was enough for the Europa League and was a massive improvement on their eighth-place slump a year earlier.
Each side has won three of the last six meetings, but Newcastle's wins have all come in the last four games. It's a game for goals with the past seven meetings ending 4-0, 1-4, 6-1, 2-1, 1-5, 2-3 and 2-2. The past seven games have all had two or more first half goals and in the past 10 meetings Head to Head both teams scored in eight, all 10 had a first half goal and 9/10 had a second half goal. Seven of the 10 meetings went Over 3.5 goals which is 70% or a price of $1.43 and we can get even money or better here. That's awesome value.
There have been Over 2.5 goals in 9/12 Newcastle home matches and in 8/11 Spurs away matches. It's not a great stretch to see four goals here as we could easily see two first half and that will set us up nicely.
MANCHESTER UNITED VS LIVERPOOL
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Liverpool for 2 units @ 1.92
It is very strange to see Manchester United at $4.00 at home to a Liverpool side priced at $1.93. It looks another game for a lot of goals based on recent stats. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 7/8 Manchester United home matches against top-six teams and in 9/12 Liverpool away matches against middle-third teams. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 5/8 Manchester United home matches against top-six teams.
Looking at the Head to Head past 10 explains the prices. United have just one win in the past 10 meetings, with four draws and five losses. The three most recent were 2-2, 0-0 and 0-7. Before that were scores of 2-1, 0-4, 0-5 and 2-4 so it is usually a goal fest when these sides meet.
The only change now is Liverpool are under a new manager, but he is still playing the Klopp style so we can expect a similar outcome. So far this season Liverpool have a pair of 2-0 wins and United lost 2-1 away to Brighton and beat Fulham 1-0, so they are still a long way from convincing me they can win this.
With Liverpool keeping six clean sheets in the most recent 10 meetings, I will avoid goals, and just go for the away win.