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English Premier League Preview - Round 5.

3 minute read

A crunch game early in the season, with Man City and Arsenal locking horns at the Etihad. City can open a five-point gap on their biggest rival for the title with a win, whilst a Gunners victory will see them go to the top.

EPL Preview Picture: Racing and Sports

In other games, the newly promoted sides will feel this is their big chance to open their respective accounts; Leicester host a hapless Everton and Ipswich visit Southampton.

Unbeaten records go on the line with Brighton taking on Forest, while a couple of London Derbies are appealing matchups.

Last weekend saw five away teams get the chocolates. Forest's first win at Anfield in 55 years was the big surprise and gave Liverpool fans who thought Slot was the second coming a big reality check.

WEST HAM v CHELSEA

History: Recent clashes in East London have been kind to the Hammers who have won six and drawn twice in the past ten meetings in all competitions.

Form: West Ham started slowly at Fulham and deservedly went to the break a goal down. Key personnel changes at halftime injected some spark but over 90 minutes the hosts were the better side. The late equaliser by Danny Ings was a real smash-and-grab job. Hammers' faithful will be hoping for a different starting 11 and some more intensity from the outset, particularly at home.

Chelsea got the cash in a very entertaining trip to Bournemouth last weekend. The home side had the better chances, including a missed penalty, and it was inconceivable that the game remained 0-0 until the 86th minute when Nkunku used strength and clever body positioning inside the box to score the winner. Despite having 2/3rds of the ball, Chelsea managed just three shots on target – keeper Robert Sanchez was man-of-the-match and the far busier of the two goalies.

Overview: Both sides were second-best in their respective encounters last weekend but eked out results. This has been a good fixture for West Ham recently. With a bit more self-belief from the opening whistle they have the firepower to give Chelsea a torrid afternoon.

Prediction: West Ham win at $3.40.

ASTON VILLA v WOLVES

History: Villa won the corresponding fixture last season 2-0 which has their first success over Wolves on home soil in five encounters. Strangely, in nine EPL matches at Villa Park, the home side has taken maximum points just twice.

Form: Villa was stunned early by visitors Everton, going down by two in the opening 27 minutes. A brace either side of halftime by Watkins and a thunderbolt from distance by Jhon Duran gave the hosts a result they desperately needed. The confidence will be soaring after a successful return to Champions League football on Tuesday evening, easily disposing of Swiss side Young Boys 3-0.

Wolves are playing better than their table position suggests. It has been a tough opening set of fixtures for O'Neil's side, who have fallen to Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle so far. The latest defeat at home to the Magpies was difficult to swallow after they were the better side for much of the game. It took a couple of outstanding strikes from Schar and super-sub Barnes to turn the tide.

Overview: Villa get four days recover from their trip to the continent – it could be worse. This could be the game of the round for neutral observers as both teams are very attractive going forward. A midlands Derby that should be close.

Prediction: Draw at $4.20.

FULHAM v NEWCASTLE

History: It's been one-way traffic of late. Newcastle has won the last six meetings in all competitions. In the last ten EPL clashes, Fulham has scored just three times.

Form: Fulham played the better football for much of their clash with West Ham last weekend, with missed chances costing them dearly. Ings' late equaliser robbed the Cottagers of a couple of points they deserved. There is a steadiness about this side which has entrenched itself now as a solid, midtable outfit. Traore has added some venom going forward but they have never properly replaced Mitrovic who was the source of many of their goals.

Newcastle has been far from dominant in their last two games, at home to Spurs then away at Wolves, but managed to collect six points. Despite Isak coming off at Molineaux the Magpies turned around a one-goal deficit courtesy of a couple of outstanding strikes from outside the box. Barnes isn't a starter for Howe but his impact is always felt when he comes on.

Overview: Close matches have been the order of the day in the eight games these sides have played so far this season – cumulatively four wins by a single goal, two draws, two losses by a single goal. Newcastle has dominated this fixture of late, but Fulham has showed enough to suggest this is going to be a tough visit to the capital for the Magpies.

Prediction: Draw at $3.40.

LEICESTER v EVERTON

History: A mixed bag. In the nine seasons between 14/15 and 22/23, Leicester won six, Everton seven, and five were drawn.

Form: Leicester has been competitive since its quick return to the top-flight. Good draws with Spurs and Palace, and single goal defeats to Villa and Fulham, have been largely thanks to the evergreen Vardy who looks as fit and effective as he was in their famous 15/16 season. There are no real superstars in the squad but plenty of Premier League experience from the likes of Justin, Faes, Ndidi, Ayew, Skipp, and Vardy. They can survive if they stay fit and pick up plenty of points at home.

Everton led by two and were beaten for the second match in a row, only the second time that has happened in EPL history. It's no mean feat to go two ahead at Villa Park, a graveyard for plenty of good sides in the past 18 months. But Everton's aging backline succumbs too easily late in games. Keane was a big part of the problem in the Villa demise – Sean Dyche will be counting the days to the return of Branthwaite.

Overview: Everton has lost the first four games of the season for the first time in over 60 years. Conceding at least three goals in each of those games is the greatest concern, and Leicester has the firepower to hurt them again.

Prediction: Leicester win at $2.60.

LIVERPOOL v BOURNEMOUTH

History: As expected, this has been a meeting dominated by Liverpool. In Bournemouth's seven EPL seasons, Liverpool has won 11 of the 14 matches, Bournemouth two. The Cherries have never won in ten visits to Anfield.

Form: Liverpool looked flat and disjointed at Anfield in their surprise loss to Forest, although the visitors deserve some of the credit. A quick turnaround in the Champions League was just what they needed to expunge that game from the memory, and The Reds responded in style with a 3-1 away win in Milan. That was the first test against quality opposition since Slot's arrival and the box was ticked. His side will be keen to repay fans who sat through a miserable 90 minutes a week ago.

Bournemouth only had one-third of the ball but managed twice as many shots, on and off target, against Chelsea last weekend. After the Cherries twice hit the woodwork and missed a penalty, it seemed a frustrating 0-0 was on the cards until Nkunku outmuscled the defence to grab a late winner. It was the first loss of the campaign and would have stung.

Overview: This promises to be a cracker. The new-look Bournemouth is never intimidated by big-time opposition and will hit Liverpool at every opportunity. The Reds must win to patch the damage caused by dropping three points against Forest. Expect plenty of goals.

Prediction: Liverpool win at $1.30.

SOUTHAMPTON v IPSWICH

History: Ipswich won both clashes in last season's Championship, breaking a drought that went back to 2007.

Form: Southampton started brightly against Man U and could easily have led inside 30 minutes. Onana saved a penalty, de Ligt scored a few minutes later, and that was the end of the section. The Saints back four don't move up as one – each of Man U's three goals could have been avoided with a better organised defence. Interestingly they limited the number of times they played out of the back but found other ways to compound. It looks like a long season ahead.

Ipswich was dominated by Brighton in every department but defended resolutely and escaped with a point on the south coast last weekend. Two points after four games isn't a bad return when one considers the quality of opposition they have faced. The Man City game was the only one of the four to date that they weren't highly competitive, even bettering Liverpool for half the match on opening day.

Overview: Ipswich will relish the drop in class. They had the better of the Saints last season and can launch themselves up the table with three points here. 

Prediction: Ipswich win at $3.20.

TOTTENHAM v BRENTFORD

History: Six meetings since Brentford ascended to the top-flight and the matches are often close. Tottenham has won twice and Brentford once. Spurs came from behind to win 3-2 in the 23/24 fixture at home.

Form: Tottenham is developing a bad habit of dominating games and not winning. They tore Everton to shreds but have picked up just one point in the other three matches in which they created the most chances on each occasion. Arsenal seemed happy to sit back and thwart Spurs before hitting them in their renowned weakest area – set pieces. Son, Solanke, Kulesevski and Johnson all look slightly off the boil. Outside the Everton game, Spurs has scored just twice – an own goal and one from defender Pedro Porro.

Brentford stunned Man City with a goal after 22 seconds and had a huge chance to double the lead when Collins' shot was saved on the line by Ederson. City's class soon emerged and the irrepressible Haaland scored twice to go to the break at 2-1. To the Bees' credit they controlled passages of play in the second half but lacked the oomph in the final third to get back to level terms. Thomas Frank's biggest headache now is that Wissa is out for a month or two, leaving him without half of his attacking arsenal.

Overview: The loss of Wissa will no doubt be felt by Brentford. At full strength they have the counterattacking capability to trouble Spurs' high line. This should be close as these clashes usually are. Spurs can probably win, but $1.55 is way too short.

Prediction: Tottenham win at $1.55.

CRYSTAL PALACE v MANCHESTER UTD

History: Palace pulled off the double against Man U last season without conceding a goal. That made it five wins for the Eagles in their last ten league meetings with the Red Devils.

Form: It's been a low-key start for Palace after their barnstorming end to the 23/24 campaign. A third defeat in four looked on the cards when they went two behind at home to Leicester. Up stepped last season's hero Mateta who grabbed a second half brace – the first a deft touch and the second from the spot in stoppage time. Palace has a squad capable of finally cracking the top ten but are notoriously slow starters. Another 10th to 15th finish looks a certainty unless they pick up more points soon.

Man U was way off the pace at Southampton in the opening half hour last weekend. A pen saved by Onana then a quick response by de Ligt settled the nerves. Although far from a convincing display to eventually get home 3-0, it was met with relief and is a confidence booster. That was apparent when they put seven unanswered past Barnsley in a midweek Carabao Cup tie. Barnsley had lost 3-0 to Stevenage the weekend before so the form line is hardly gilt edged, but it's better than scrambling a 2-0 win. The Red Devils still must prove themselves against top opposition before they can be taken seriously.

Overview: If Palace show up and convert the chances they create they can upset the visitors. On paper I'd suggest the quality of the squads is comparable. Palace just need to find that self-belief that drove them up the ladder post-Easter last season. The market has this quite even which is a fair assessment.

Prediction: Draw at $3.75.

BRIGHTON v NOTTINGHAM FOREST

History: Brighton won both clashes in 23/24, but only by a single goal on each occasion. Prior to that, in the EPL but primarily in the Championship, spoils were evenly shared. 

Form: Two undefeated sides meet. That is not surprising from the home side's perspective, but even the most ardent Forest fan would have doubted collected eight points in the first four games.

Brighton was frustrated by a well-drilled Ipswich defence at the Amex last time out and couldn't convert a wealth of possession and chances. Defensively it has been a strong start to the campaign for the Seagulls, although Wolves slipped a couple past them in a 3-2 midweek Carabao Cup win. The squad is reasonably healthy at the moment with only two or three key players unavailable. Without European football to contend with they should continue to perform well and push for a top-eight finish.

Forest shocked just about everyone when turned over Liverpool at Anfield for the first time since 1969. The Reds were criticised for being off pace and disjointed, but much of the credit for that can be attributed to Nuno's game plan of putting the ball out of play as often as possible and stifling the flow. His side aren't scoring many, but their defence is taking the pressure off in that respect.

Overview: It is expected that Forest will try similar tactics for this clash. Whether they press as Brighton pass their way out of the back or just sit and wait for them to come is debatable. Either way, two well-coached sides clash in a game that will be dominated by Brighton, if not on the score sheet, then on the stats sheet.

Prediction: Brighton win at $1.75.

MANCHESTER CITY v ARSENAL

History: The 23/24 campaign was a breakthrough for Arsenal, who collected four points and did not concede a goal in their two meetings with the champions. It ended a long period of City dominance.

Form: Both undefeated, and Arsenal would contend that both should be 4/4 after they dropped points with ten men against Brighton.

City hasn't been under immense pressure just yet, although Chelsea did open them up regularly on opening day and Brentford made things interesting with an early onslaught at the Etihad last time around. On Wednesday evening Inter Milan kept them scoreless at home in the Champions League which doesn't happen often; in fact, since the start of the 22/23 season, only Arsenal has managed it. So much of what they have achieved in this campaign has rested on Haaland's shoulders. He has scored nine of their 11 goals and has outscored every team in the league (Chelsea sits second behind Erling with eight!).

Arsenal knows how to win games. Take out the midfield lynchpins of Odegaard and Rice – no problem. He brings in Jorginho to sit just in front of the back four and plays Partey a bit wider. Spurs had their chances but this back four make life difficult and are the best in the league. No doubt Arteta the apprentice will have a plan to stifle the master Guardiola as he did in this fixture last season, but first they have a Thursday night Champions League trip to Italy which couldn't have come at a worse time.

Overview: If Arsenal didn't have an away game in Italy on Thursday night, but rather had a home game on Wednesday night as City does, this would be lineball for mine. Those midweek distractions, particularly the travel element, is a game changer. Under the circumstances I want to be on Man City and take an all-up that Arteta has a whinge about his team's UCL schedule in the post-match interview.

Prediction: Manchester City win at $1.80.

SUGGESTED WAGERS

Aston Villa/Wolves draw – 1 unit at $4.20.

Crystal Palace/Manchester Utd draw – 1 unit at $3.75.