Betfair Hub: Expert Soccer Tips - EPL Round 7

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Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Liverpool for 3 units @ $1.55

Liverpool sit atop the Premier League ladder after Manchester City faltered last weekend. In the past 10 meetings, Liverpool are 7-2-1 and are unbeaten ins their past 10 trips to Selhurst Park. This season Liverpool have won five and lost one. That was the major shock loss to Nottingham Forest. They have only conceded two goals this season. The other goal was against Wolves in a comical debacle that cost us our Both Teams to Score bet last week. They have scored 12 goals so far.

Things are not really going to plan for Oliver Glasner at Palace. After opening the campaign with back-to-back defeats, they are currently on a run of three consecutive draws. They are yet to get a win, and I can't see them knocking off the competition leaders.

Palace have conceded nine goals and scored five. Liverpool should win this with little fuss and there are no real value options other than just backing them to win, because Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score are not great options here. I doubt Palace score, but at home, there is no need to take the chance as they could nick a goal (like Wolves did) and lose 1-3.

Arsenal vs Southampton

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) No for 1 unit @ $1.70

This is as straight forward a home win as you can get. Arsenal will win by as many as they fancy scoring. The $1.16 is probably better than bank interest but it's football so you never know and that price doesn't represent great value. It represents an 86% chance, which is about right, as Arsenal would win this nine times out of 10 for sure.

The only interest I have in this game is asking myself can Southampton score? I don't think they can, so I am happy to take the $1.70 on no in the Both Teams to Score market.

Brentford vs Wolves

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 3 units @ $1.82

Brentford are making a habit of scoring in the first minute and I think it is three times already they have done so. Added to the fact, Wolves have conceded first in 7/8 away matches against middle-third teams, and we have a recipe for goals.

There have been Over 3.5 goals in 11/20 Brentford home matches and Over 2.5 goals in 12/18 Wolves away matches. Wolves are stuck in last place, with one draw and five losses, despite scoring in all but one game. Their results have been 1-2, 1-3, 1-2, 1-1, 2-6 and 0-2 in their opening match.

Brentford have also scored in 5/6 games with scores of 1-1, 1-3, 1-2, 3-1, 0-2 and 2-1. The side they failed to score against was Liverpool. All six games had at least one first half goal (four games) and two games had three first half goals (both 2-1 half time). Two things look certain in this match. Both teams will score and there will be three goals at least, possibly even in the first half. The Both Teams to Score is $1.72 and the Over 2.5 is $1.82 so that's the best option.

Leicester vs Bournemouth

Betting Strategy

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over 2.5 goals for 3 units @ $1.70

Leicester are one of five teams yet to win this season, and their three draws and three losses have them sitting on equal points with Crystal Palace on three, but just out of the relegation places thanks to goal difference. The recent Head to Head is scattered because both sides were relegated at various times, so the two games in season 2019/20 were both won by the home side. Bournemouth won 4-1, and Leicester won 3-1. Recent meetings were in season 22/23 and Bournemouth won both, 2-1 and 1-0. Bournemouth are in 11th place with a 2-2-2 record.

The goals market is the place to be for sure here as four of the past five Leicester games went Over 2.5 goals. They ended 2-4, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 1-2. The four recent Bournemouth games ended 3-1, 0-3, 0-1, 3-2, so I am very happy to be on the goals here. I can see Bournemouth winning, but with Leicester at home, I will apply caution and go with goals so we can cheer for both teams.

Manchester City vs Fulham

Betting Strategy

Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 1 unit @ $2.00

In what has been an incredible start for Fulham, they have accumulated 11 points with three wins and two draws and just one loss so far. This however, is going to be a major stumbling block. Manchester City have beaten them 4-0, 5-1, 2-1, 2-1, 3-0 and 2-0 since they returned to the Premier League. That's 18-3 on aggregate and you can expect the same here. As five of the six meetings went Over 2.5 goals, that is 80% or a price of $1.20. This season, 4/6 went over for City and 2/6 for Fulham.

City have two wins and the draw with Arsenal at home so far, and Fulham away lost 0-1 to Manchester United, drew 1-1 with Ipswich and beat Forest 1-0 last weekend. With City at $1.25 we are left with two real options. The Both Teams to Score (yes) is even money and that is incredible as City have conceded in all but one game so far, and the Over 2.5 goals, which is just $1.53. Perhaps the best plan is to do both and as long as there are three goals, the Both Teams to Score bet is covered.

Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 2 units @ $1.53

West Ham vs Ipswich

Betting Strategy

Lay (Match Odds) West Ham for 1 unit @ $1.90

This really needs to be three points for West Ham or serious questions will have to be asked. They have one win (2-0 against Crystal Palace) along with two draws and three losses. Ipswich lost their first two games back in the Premier League, but they were against Manchester City and Liverpool so if we cut them some slack there, they have four straight draws since. The draws were against Villa, Southampton, Brighton and Fulham, and all of those sides apart from Southampton are better than West Ham. When you compare the West Ham price of $1.90 and Ipswich at $4.50, I can see great value in one and not the other. The draw is $4.00 so even that would be backable.

The best play here for me is to lay the Hammers and that gives us the draw and Ipswich as positive outcomes for us. I can easily see Ipswich winning this, but I don't see them losing.

Everton vs Newcastle

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Newcastle for 2 units @ $2.20

Everton finally got their first win last weekend against Crystal Palace to ease some pressure on Sean Dyche and move them up to 16th. After starting the season with four straight losses, a draw with Leicester saw them win their first point, and then three more came in the next game. Newcastle have gone the other way, with three wins in their first four, followed by a loss to Fulham and an upset draw against Manchester City.

Looking at the Head to Head past 10, Everton have two wins in the past nine and one draw in the last eight, with five losses coming in the last eight meetings. In those games, both teams scored in six, 6/10 went Over 2.5 goals, 9/10 had a second half goal and 6/10 had a first half goal. Everton have not held a half time lead in the past eight meetings, yet Newcastle have led at half time in three of the past four.

Newcastle should have far too many guns for Everton, and they seem to have a pattern of winning every second away game. In recent away games, they beat Fulham then lost to Crystal Palace, then beat Burnley and lost to Manchester United, then beat Brentford and lost Bournemouth, then beat Wolves and last week lost to Fulham. So on that pattern, they should beat Everton this week, and then lose to Chelsea in their next away game at the end of the month after a home game and then a week off for the League Cup.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Aston Villa for 1 unit @ $2.30

If Manchester United lose this game, they will be looking for a new manager. This situation, with the players they have, can't continue. Aston Villa have won 6/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Man Utd have lost by two or more goals in 8/13 trips to top-six teams. United have lost 10/13 away matches against top-six teams and they will be without their captain after the red card against Spurs. Manchester United are in 13th place after six games, with two wins, one draw and three losses. They have only scored just five goals. They scored one each in the opening two games, and three against Southampton, and drew blanks against Liverpool (0-3), Crystal Palace (0-0) and Spurs (0-3 that could have been 0-7 if Werner was a decent player) and they are in serious trouble.

In the Head to Head past 10, Villa are 2-2-6 so United certainly dominate this match up, winning the past three meetings. The past two at Villa Park ended 2-1 to Manchester United and 3-1 to Aston Villa. I can make a strong case for Over 2.5 here as 8/10 meetings went over, including four of the past five, but at $1.53, that's a bit skinny despite looking a good thing. I prefer the $2.30 for Villa to end the tenure of Ten Hag as Manchester United manager.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Chelsea for 2 units @ $1.50

There is no real betting angle to look at other than Chelsea winning this game. With the form of Cole Palmer (four first half goals last week) and Nicolas Jackson, they could cause carnage here. Chelsea have just one win in their three home league matches this season, losing to Manchester City and Palace and beating Brighton 4-2 last weekend. The Blues have also won just one of their four Premier League matches against Forest since the Reds were promoted. In 22/23 it was 1-1 and 2-2, and last season was 0-1 and a 3-2 win. But this Chelsea side now have four wins in five games and are full of confidence and on fire. Their six games this season has seen 22 goals scored.

Forest suffered their first loss last week (as we predicted) after losing Gibbs-White and their manager. I expect Nuno to play 4-4-2 again here. The intention, as it was at both Liverpool and Brighton, was to prevent a slick Fulham side from passing through them. There is no way they can keep a rampant Chelsea at bay here at home. The Bridge will be rocking.

Even at $1.50 I think Chelsea just may be the bet of the weekend.

Brighton vs Tottenham

Betting Strategy

Back (Match Odds) Tottenham for 2 units @ $2.40

Until they played Manchester United, I would have tipped Spurs to lose this game. The way they had been playing had been very below par. When I saw Son was missing against United, I feared the worst. The first half was the best they have played this season, and if they apply the same strategy here, we should see plenty of goals and they should win. There has been Over 2.5 goals in 8/10 Brighton home matches against top-half teams and in 12/14 Spurs away matches against middle-third teams. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 5/10 Brighton home matches against top-half teams. Three goals is almost a certainty here.

Head to Head past 10 games, Brighton are 4-0-6 so it is interesting there are no draws. Spurs have won three of the four games over the past two seasons. The results (for Spurs) in the games were 2-1, 2-4, 2-1 and 1-0. Brighton started brightly with two wins beating Everton 2-0 and Manchester United 2-1, but then three straight draws against Arsenal, Ipswich and Forest, and the 2-4 loss to Chelsea last weekend. Spurs have bounced back with two wins against Brentford (3-1) and Manchester United (3-0) and they will be oozing confidence here.

No value at all in the Both Teams to Score (yes) at $1.45 or the Over 2.5 goals at the same price, so we have two choices. We can back Tottenham or lay Brighton and keep the draw onside. As there has been no drawn matches in the past 10 meetings, we can just back the Spurs to do the business and really get their season rolling.

Winner 2024/25

 EPL TIPS 

The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.

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EPL Title:

2023/24: Manchester City

2022/23: Manchester City

2021/22 : Manchester City

2020/21: Manchester City

2019/20: Liverpool

2018/19: Manchester City

2017/18: Manchester City