3 minute read
Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.
Tottenham vs West Ham
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 4 units @ $1.62
Tottenham will still be fuming after losing to Brighton after leading 2-0. That brought their good run to a screeching halt and they will look to rectify that at home against a stuttering West Ham. The Hammers have been slow starters this season, conceding first in five of their seven matches. But they have also scored the second goal in five of their seven matches. They are unbeaten on the road this season, with two draws and one win. All three of their away league matches this season have been London derbies. There will be goals here. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/8 Spurs home matches against middle-third teams and in 15/20 West Ham away matches. West Ham have conceded first in 9/10 away matches against middle-third teams.
The past 10 Head to Head sees Spurs 4-3-3 with the past five games 1-1, 1-2, 2-0, 1-1 and 3-1. With the Over 2.5 landing in just two of the five and Both Teams to Score landing in four of the five, both scoring is the better option here. It is $1.62 and the Over 2.5 is $1.45 and that is quite tempting to lay. Looking at games this season and last at home for Spurs, the Over 2.5 landed in 18/22 games which equates to $1.22 and it is 16/22 away for West Ham ($1.38). Both teams have scored in 17/22 home games for Spurs ($1.29) and 16/22 away for West Ham ($1.38) and combining them we get $1.33 so to be offered $1.62 is excellent value.
Fulham vs Aston Villa
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $3.60
Another game that should see goals. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 8/8 Fulham home matches against top-six teams and in 12/16 Aston Villa away matches. Fulham have conceded first in 8/10 home matches against top-six teams. The Head to Head past six games does not make great reading for Fulham fans. Five losses and a win and a combined score of 6-12. The scores were 1-2, 1-3, 0-1, 3-0, 1-3 and 0-3. Fulham have had a great start this season with three wins, two draws and two losses. They have beaten Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Leicester.
Villa started their season with four wins in their first five games, and that has been tempered with two draws against Ipswich (2-2) and Manchester United (0-0). In home games this season and last season, Fulham have drawn just 3/22 which is 14% or a price of $7.33 and Villa have drawn 5/22 which is 23% or $4.40, and the price of the draw should be around $5.60. Remembering there we no draws in the past six meetings, we can either lay the draw or look at both teams scoring. The Both Teams to Score is $1.68. We can lay the draw on Betfair at $3.60 and that looks a great price.
Ipswich vs Everton
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $3.50
This is a real chance for Everton to kick away from the relegation battle that is starting to form and a win here would continue their decent run. They went into the break unbeaten in three league games, while Ipswich are still chasing their first win. Ipswich are making life hard for themselves by conceding first. They have been behind at half-time in five of their seven Premier League games this season. The only exceptions were their opening game against Liverpool and their match against Brighton, both of which were goalless at the break. Both sides are struggling to win, and Ipswich have four draws and three losses. Everton are 1-2-4, but if we consider they lost their first four games, then a win and two draws since is improvement.
Everton have drawn 6/8 away matches against promoted teams and they have drawn the first half in 11/20 away matches. This match looks to have draw written all over it as neither can afford to lose, and Sean Dyche would be happy to not lose ground to a relegation rival, especially away from home.
There is no Head to Head to look at as this is the first meeting between these two sides since 2002. Ipswich will be hoping time is no problem, though, as they are unbeaten in their past four games against Everton. A draw will do us though.
Manchester United vs Brentford
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Manchester United for 2 units @ $1.72
We said two weeks ago if Manchester United lost to Villa, then Erik Ten Hag would be shown the door. They managed a thrilling 0-0 draw and he survives another week. The same call applies this week, especially at home. If they lose to Brentford at home, he is gone. They are having a torrid time and are winless in their last five across all competitions, including their last three Premier League games.They haven't scored in any of those league games. Brentford, meanwhile, have lost just one of their last four across all competitions, scoring 10 goals during that time. The score of 0-1 is $25 on Betfair and that is incredibly tempting. Bryan Mbeumo has scored six goals in seven Premier League appearances this season, including one in each of his last three appearances.
To say that Manchester United is languishing in 14th place and are five points off the relegation zone is unacceptable for a club of their resources and stature. Even a draw here for Ten Hag would be disaster. They should have Mason Mount back in action for this match, but will remain without Leny Yoro, Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia. Kobbie Mainoo withdrew from the England squad due to injury. Brentford are coping well considering their injury problems, with the likes of Rico Henry, Yoane Wissa, Josh Dasilva and Mathias Jensen all sidelined. The latter could return for this match alongside Aaron Hickey.
United have won two of their last three meetings with Brentford, but could only manage a 1-1 draw in their previous clash back in March, despite taking a 96th-minute lead. We might need to look at goals, as there have been Over 2.5 goals in 11/15 Man Utd home matches and in 8/10 Brentford away matches. Brentford have scored first in 7/9 away matches against middle-third teams. The past four Brentford games have seen a goal in the first 90 seconds and all of them were by Brentford. If that happens here, it's going to be a very long day for Manchester United.
Newcastle vs Brighton
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.00
Newcastle games this season have been strange. They are losing the first half of their games 5-2 and winning the second half 6-2. They are unbeaten at home beating Southampton 1-0, Tottenham 2-1 and then a valiant 1-1 draw with Manchester City. Brighton away have beaten Everton 3-0, then drew with Arsenal 1-1, and lost to Chelsea 4-2 in the craziest game this season, where Cole Palmer scored four first half goals for Chelsea. There were no second half goals in the game. Newcastle have scored first in 15/20 home matches while Brighton have lost 8/11 away matches against top-half teams. Brighton have conceded first in 12/20 away matches. Both teams are on 12 points with a 3-3-1 record.
Even the Head to Head record doesn't separate them as it is 2-5-3 and the past three games were 1-1, 1-3 and 4-1 and the game before that was 0-0. Everything is equal with these sides. In the 10 Head to Head games, five went Over 2.5 and five saw both sides score. After going unbeaten in their first four Premier League visits to St James' Park, Brighton are now winless in three with two defeats. But three of the past seven Premier League games overall have finished level, with each side also winning two.
This looks a great game to back the draw, considering five of the past 10 between the sides ended level, Newcastle are at home but in poor form, with no wins in their past three and Brighton are coming off a confidence boosting come from behind win against Tottenham.
Southampton vs Leicester
Betting Strategy
Lay (Match Odds) Southampton for 1 unit @ $2.50
The value of three points here cannot be overstated. A vital game for two relegation favourites. A draw here would be considered a poor result for either side. Saints have lost six of their first seven games and the draw was against winless Ipswich. Leicester got their first league clean sheet of the season last time out and they now get to face the worst attack in the Premier League. They have scored in all seven matches so far and conceded in six, so the Both Teams to Score has huge potential. This issue is, both these sides have been slow starters this season. Of their combined 13 league goals, just four have come in the first half. Leicester have failed to score in the first half four times while Southampton have blanked in six of their seven matches.
Due to the lack of Saints goals, I am leaving the Both Teams to Score market alone and will just do a straight lay of Southampton. Based on the fact Bournemouth beat them 3-1 and then lost to Leicester, confirming my opinion that Leicester are the better side. Saints have the worst attack in the Premier League, scoring four goals, and the second worst defence with 15 conceded. They will be heading back to the Championship next season, and this will be another dagger to the heart of their fans.
Bournemouth vs Arsenal
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Arsenal for 3 units @ $1.73
This should be a straight forward afternoon for the Gunners. Arsenal have won their last four Premier League matches against Bournemouth, scoring at least three goals in each of them and keeping three clean sheets along the way. Kai Havertz has scored in each of his last four matches across all competitions. Bournemouth have won just one of their last four games, although they did face Chelsea and Liverpool in two of them. They beat Southampton, and then lost to Leicester. Bournemouth have lost 6/9 home matches against top-six teams while Arsenal have won 7/8 away matches against middle-third teams.
Arsenal simply dominate this matchup and the past six meetings ended 3-0, 4-0, 3-2, 3-0, 1-1 and 1-0. This will be another win in a match that Mikel Arteta will consider a must have three points. Bournemouth have lost three of their past four games, and won't be able to hold off a rampant Arsenal attack. They failed to score in the recent three losses and their past four results were 0-1, 3-1, 0-3 and 0-1. This will end with another L in the Win/Loss column.
Wolves vs Manchester City
Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 3 units @ $1.50
Despite being unbeaten this season, City still trail Liverpool by one point. They have scored at least three goals in six of their past eight Premier League games against Wolves. This run includes three of the four matches at Molineux, with Man City scoring a total of 12 goals. They have conceded four goals in those past four away games against Wolves. The past five meetings between the sides ended 1-5, 2-1, 0-3, 0-3 and 1-5, so City have been extremely dominant. It is expected with a side that is usually leading the competition facing one that is plastered to the bottom of the ladder. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 10/14 Wolves home matches and in 9/10 Man City away matches against bottom-six teams. As you can see above, the past five games all had three or more goals, so the choice here is either City win to nil, or the Over 2.5.
It's short, but $1.50 is good value when the Head to Head past 10 games, saw 80% go over, which is $1.25, and 90% of City games against bottom six sides go over, which is $1.10. Wolves games this season went over 5/7 which is $1.40 and City are also 5/7 and $1.40. If we combine all of those outcomes, then we get a price of $1.28 and so to get offered $1.50 is a bargain.
Liverpool vs Chelsea
Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 2 units @ $4.50
In a statistic no Chelsea fan would want to read, Liverpool are unbeaten in their last nine meetings with the Blues across all competitions, while the Reds have won their last six matches, against all teams across all competitions. Add to that, Liverpool have won by two or more goals in 9/13 home matches while Chelsea have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 trips to top-six teams. Then we can also add Liverpool have won 10/13 home matches. So the Chelsea odds would need to be huge to tempt us to back them here. The Head to Head however looks very hopeful for Blues fans.
Looking at Premier League only, Liverpool have just one win in the past seven meetings, and it was the most recent. They won 4-1 at Anfield last season, yet before that we saw 1-1, 0-0, 0-0, 2-2, 1-1 and 0-1 results. They did win the three before those, but we are back to season 2020/21 and 19/20 for those three, so they are not relevant. This is no gift three points for Liverpool and with one win in seven games against this opponent, no way can we take $1.72 for them against a Chelsea side in decent form.
Liverpool have six wins in seven games and only the shock loss to Nottingham Forest has ruined their perfect record. Chelsea are unbeaten since the opening day loss to Manchester City (0-2) and have scored 16-6 in the six subsequent games.
In another strange stat, Liverpool haven't lost to Chelsea in any competition since March 2021, when Mason Mount handed the Blues a 1-0 victory at Anfield. The five matches after that were all drawn and as mentioned above, Klopp's last match against Chelsea ended 4-1 to Liverpool.
The value here has to be in yet another draw between these two giants of the Premier League. Especially if Alisson is not between the sticks for the home side. That could be a result defining injury.
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace
Betting Strategy
Back (Both Teams to Score) Yes for 3 units @ $1.95
Two very inconsistent sides and this may be decided by the odd goal. Nottingham Forest have drawn the first half in 9/14 home matches while there have been Under 2.5 goals in 13/19 Crystal Palace away matches against middle-third teams. The only four recent Head to Head meetings shows there is nothing between the teams. Scores of 1-1, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-0 shows just how tight these games are. On paper, this looks like it should be an easy Forest win. The Eagles are still chasing their first league win of the new campaign, whilst Nottingham Forest are sitting 10th at the moment with just one loss from their opening seven matches.
The only real play we have here is the Both Teams to Score market. Eight of the past 10 Crystal Palace away games saw both teams score, and six of the past 10 Forest home games had the same outcome. The price should be around $1.46 for both teams to score based on those outcomes, and if we add in the Head to Head meetings, that makes it about a $1.65 chance. Betfair offer us $1.95 for both scoring and that is a great price.
Winner 2024/25
| Runner | Back | Lay |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | $2.68 | $2.7 |
| Man City | $2.84 | $2.86 |
| Liverpool | $5.1 | $5.2 |
| Chelsea | $23 | $24 |
| Tottenham | $55 | $60 |
| Aston Villa | $130 | $140 |
EPL TIPS
The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.
The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.
To ensure you capitalise on the 2023/24 EPL season, be sure to follow Betfair's latest updated expert EPL tips across the entire season. Betfair's analysts provide head-to-head selections, total goals picks, goal scorer tips, advice on which individual players we think will play well, game previews, analysis plus much more!
Recent Winners
EPL Title:
2023/24: Manchester City
2022/23: Manchester City
2021/22 : Manchester City
2020/21: Manchester City
2019/20: Liverpool
2018/19: Manchester City
2017/18: Manchester City
For more Betfair Hub expert tips check out the Betfair Hub.