3 minute read
The EPL returns after an international break and it’s an attractive fixture list. Liverpool v Chelsea is the headline act, but Fulham v Villa and Newcastle v Brighton are other games that will shape the look of the top six.
TOTTENHAM v WEST HAM
History: Spurs marginally holds the edge in the past five seasons, winning four times to West Ham's three. Given the Hammers are always the underdog in this fixture, historically they are the better wagering option. Indeed, they travelled to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last season and got the chocolates.
Form: A lot has been made of Spurs' capitulation in the second half at Brighton but it did come off a run of five wins in all competitions. Things are not quite as bad as disgruntled fans make out. Mitoma exposed a weakness in their right-side defence but, to be fair, Spurs had only conceded seven times in nine matches before those 18 minutes of meltdown at the Amex.
West Ham finally showed some mettle with an easy win over Ipswich at home a fortnight ago. The Hammers have the squad to be top eight at least, but it will take time. The concern before the Ipswich game was the lack of intensity but it was there at the London Stadium. Expect some good results and a ladder climb in November/December when the fixture list looks okay.
Overview: Remarkably, West Ham can overtake their bitter rivals with a win here. The Hammers are good on the break so Spurs' high line is a mouth-watering prospect. Finding it hard to split them, with plenty of goals expected.
Prediction: Draw @ 5.00.
FULHAM v ASTON VILLA
History: Not a happy encounter for Fulham who has lost five of the past six EPL matches against Villa, including a double defeat last season.
Form: Fulham's run of five without a loss came to an end at Man City but it was a defeat full of merit. After leading early some goals of real individual quality put City out of reach, although when Muniz's found the net late it made for a nervous finale for the champions. The injection of some fine Arsenal cast-offs along with the foundation built in the past couple of seasons sees the Cottagers as a genuine top ten side.
Villa looked a bit jaded after their monumental win over Bayern when Man U visited Villa Park a fortnight ago. Just one shot on target against a Man U defence that had to be reshuffled with Maguire's injury was a disappointing return. If anything, Man U had the better chances. The side has travelled well this season, winning for and drawing one of five games on the road in all competitions.
Overview: Villa risks losing touch with the top four without full points in this one, but it is a tough assignment. Fulham dominated Newcastle in their last match at Craven Cottage, and Villa can be considered a comparable rival. The market rightly identifies this as a close one.
Prediction: Draw @ 3.50.
IPSWICH v EVERTON
History: The first clash since 2002 so nothing to report.
Form: Ipswich's run of four straight draws came to a shuddering halt at West Ham. While they had their moments it never really looked in doubt, with defensive frailties that hadn't been apparent in recent fixtures coming to the surface. At Portman Road they look a more settled unit, with recent draws against Villa and Fulham meritorious. It has been a tough fixture list for the Tractor Boys but they have pulled through okay – the next three against Everton, Brentford and Leicester will shape their season.
A makeshift Everton back four managed to shut out Newcastle at Goodison last time around to grab the Toffees a valuable point. Anthony Gordon did his old side plenty of favours though, missing from the spot then skying an easy chance into row Z. But Everton had their chances as well and should have received a potential match-winning penalty. In the end, a draw was fair and made it three positive results on the bounce for the beleaguered Merseysiders.
Overview: A lot hinges on whether Mykolenko and Branthwaite are back for Everton. If they are, Ipswich will find them hard to breach as Dyche's game plan to win the game will start with not conceding. With McNeil in great form I can see the visitors stealing this one.
Prediction: Everton win @ 3.00.
MANCHESTER UTD v BRENTFORD
History: Many people remember this match-up for the 4-0 humiliation handed out by Brentford in the early days of Ten Hag's managership. It was, however, the only time in six Premier League encounters that the Bees took all three points – Man U has won four of the six.
Form: Man U backed up after a game 3-3 draw in the Europa League at Porto with an impressive effort at Villa Park, keeping the home side to just one shot on target in a fairly uninspiring 0-0. The Man U of old would hardly have revelled in a couple of results like those, but for the Ten Hag version it was a refreshing show of resolve. They haven't turned the corner by any means, but coming from behind with ten men in Portugal then a clean sheet at Villa is welcomed after the Spurs debacle.
Brentford turned on the razzle dazzle in disposing of a wounded Wolves 5-3 at home. They waited a whole 90 seconds to open the scoring, their slowest start in a month! It was an entertaining encounter between a couple of sides unlikely to rattle too many big cages this season. The five goals were shared around which is pleasing in the absence of Wissa. Frank has a fine knack of cultivating his side's shape and playing style according to the opponent – in Wolves he saw a defensive weakness and exploited it.
Overview: Man U sits two points and three positions behind Brentford, yet are served up at $1.70. Old Trafford faithful are crying out for a result after consecutive 3-0 home defeats in the league. Not a betting game for mine, as I think Man U just has to win this but the price on offer is poison.
Prediction: Man Utd win @ 1.70.
NEWCASTLE v BRIGHTON
History: Until recently this was a good fixture for Brighton but in the past three seasons they have one just once, Newcastle twice, and three drawn. Interestingly, half the top-flight meetings between these sides have ended all-square.
Form: Newcastle's tenuous grip on a top six position loosened at Goodison last time around when they butchered chances and came away with a 0-0 result. Despite dominating possession, they found an understrength Everton defence difficult to conquer, although ex-Toffee Gordon should have scored twice. It continued a worrying trend away from St James' Park, with a win over lowly Wolves, draws with Bournemouth and Everton, and a bad loss to Fulham on the resume.
Brighton's high line was exposed by Spurs in the first half on the south coast but some half time substitutions and a spirited display by Mitoma turned the game around in a little over 15 minutes. Stopping the goals is a worry for the Seagulls, with the Tottenham match marking the fourth straight occasion they have conceded two or more. On a positive note, they remain a potent attacking force, scoring 20 in all competitions this season from just nine outings.
Overview: Both sides have been heavily hit with injuries. However, the returns of Wilson and Isak up front for the Magpies look likely. It should be a cracking game, with the home side just having the edge.
Prediction: Newcastle win @ 1.95.
SOUTHAMPTON v LEICESTER
History: By and large Leicester has had the better of Southampton in the modern are. The trend was bucked two seasons back when both were relegated, with the Saints winning each encounter. However, in the Championship in 23/24, Leicester handed Southampton two hidings by an aggregate of 9-1.
Form: Southampton was plucky to say the least but in the end Arsenal's class prevailed in an entertaining match in the capital. Russell Martin just doesn't have the cattle to compete against these good sides, although he has a rare talent in Tyler Dibling who looks certain to be playing for one of the big clubs in a year or two. At home the Saints have been better; they should have beaten Ipswich last time and they dominated Man U for 30 minutes until a missed pen turned the tide of the game.
As was the case last season, it took seven rounds for a newly promoted side to win a game and this time around it was Leicester who broke the ice. Their 1-0 win at home against Bournemouth was laced with a fair amount of good fortune though. On their travels they lost very late against Arsenal most recently which gives us a direct form line through the Saints.
Overview: Both sides have competed with Arsenal but succumbed by two goals late in the piece in recent weeks. By that parameter this will be tight, but I fancy Southampton's home ground advantage may just tip things their way.
Prediction: Southampton win @ 2.30.
BOURNEMOUTH v ARSENAL
History: Not good reading for Bournemouth. The sides have met 14 times since the Cherries ascendancy in 15/16 with Arsenal chalking up 11 wins and Bournemouth just one. The Gunners pulled off the double last season, scoring seven unanswered goals.
Form: Bournemouth's form this season has been sound at home but underwhelming away. Although they were the better side they came away from nothing on a visit to Leicester prior to the break. At the Vitality, they easily disposed of Southampton three weeks back and gave Chelsea a torrid match but couldn't convert their chances prior to that. The big hurdle in the past season and a half has been poor form against top six sides – wins over Liverpool and Spurs in the 22/23 campaign are the most recent big scalps.
Arsenal remains undefeated but the last couple of outings, both against newly promoted sides, have been struggles. But they find a way and in the big games this season to date, all of which have been away from the Emirates, their form is stellar – wins over Spurs and Villa and a late draw at City with ten men. They are title favourites for good reason.
Overview: Bournemouth won't mind going at Arsenal, particularly at home, so this might be another difficult assignment for the Gunners against unfashionable opposition. However, they have too much firepower and should get home.
Prediction: Arsenal win @ 1.65.
WOLVES v MANCHESTER CITY
History: This is a real diamonds or stones fixture for Wolves. To their credit they have toppled the might of City three times in the past five seasons, but lost the other seven quite heavily, conceding 24 goals along the way.
Form: I had been forgiving of Wolves' form up until their last game. They had endured a tough draw and were largely competitive in all but one half of football, with little to show for it. The trip to Brentford was a chance to climb back but the display defensively was completely inept. They conceded four in the first half and although only two down the match was effectively gone. They now concede on average three goals per game this campaign which is relegation form.
Man City won their first league match in three when they came from behind to defeat Fulham. It was the fourth time in seven matches this campaign that City has been behind at some stage, with the draw against Arsenal the only occasion they haven't turned it into three points. Kovacic is making the most of filling Rodri's boots, but the Spaniard is definitely missed. His season-long absence, and 115 FFP charges in arbitration as we speak, sees them drift to $2.80 for the title. They are worth backing at that lucrative price.
Overview: Wolves could do without this clash on current form. They will do well to keep the score respectable then look forward to a much kinder run of fixtures in the lead up to Xmas.
Prediction: Manchester City win @ 1.35.
LIVERPOOL v CHELSEA
History: Considering both sides have been largely in the top half dozen on the ladder for a very long while, this is a lop-sided match-up. Chelsea has won just one of the last 12 EPL encounters, although six have been drawn.
Form: A nice start for Slot's tenure at Anfield but the fact remains that Man U is the only side from last season's top eight that they have defeated so far. The last two wins, although on the road, have been less than convincing and have come against Wolves and Palace who haven't managed a win between them in 14 games. The defeat at home to Forest was sobering. It is difficult to knock league leaders but the Reds face Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton, Villa, Man City, and Newcastle between now and the beginning of December. A proper assessment can be made then.
The Chelsea steamroller hit a snag at Stamford Bridge before the break, with the increasingly resilient Forest taking a point and nearly all three despite going down to ten men. Chelsea under Maresco's reign is a little like Slot at Liverpool. Aside from the opening day clash with Man City, the next six games have been against sides they were expected to beat. They competed with City that day but lacked polish in front of goal. They have come a long way since and boast a squad of tremendous depth and quality.
Overview: Both sides will view this is a proper test of how they are travelling. On Chelsea's form prior to the Forest game, I would say they might have held a slight edge. The Blues' poor record against Liverpool cannot be ignored. For mine, Liverpool is way under the odds at $1.65.
Prediction: Draw @ 4.10.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST v CRYSTAL PALACE
History: Barely a struck match between them. In four meetings since Forest was promoted in 22/23, three have been drawn and Forest won the other match 1-0. Low scores have been the theme; just five goals in those four games.
Form: Forest, along with Fulham, can claim the title of surprise packet of the season to date. The squad built at a ridiculous speed over the course of the first two season back in the big time but has a more stable look to it now. After a modest start to his tenure, Nuno has moulded his side into a strong defensive unit and a threat going forward. Their win at Anfield, and bald-faced defiance at Stamford Bridge when down a man, has cemented Forest as a team not to be messed with. Home or away, they look a genuine midtable side at the moment.
On the other side of the coin, the disappointment of the season to date award might go to Palace. After a blistering end to 23/24, the Eagles have failed to win in seven. To be fair, the effort against Liverpool last time around was an improvement. They almost went ahead after 25 seconds and had numerous chances to equalise after Liverpool took an early lead. It's probably a confidence thing, but if they don't snap out of the dry spell in front of goal soon an all-too-familiar relegation battle will come knocking.
Overview: The Forest results to date have not been a fluke. Any side that travels to Anfield and Stamford Bridge and walks away with four points is doing something right. This is a case of two squads with comparable talent, but the confidence levels at present are poles apart.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest win @ 2.30.
SUGGESTED WAGERS
Tottenham v West Ham 2-2 draw: ½ unit at $15.00.
Liverpool v Chelsea draw: 1 unit at $4.10.
All-up – Arsenal to win and Manchester City to win: 2 ½ units at $2.22.
RESULTS TO DATE
Bets: 15
Wins: 8 (53.3%)
Outlay: 29 units
Return: 36.95 units
Profit on turnover: 27.4%.