3 minute read
Racing And Sports' Adam Blencowe follows up his latest spring forecast with a look at a potential Guineas chance for the Bart and James Cummings' stable.
In our first spring forecast we looked at a couple of ways to make solid predictions with lightly raced horses heading into the spring, highlighting how quickly we can get a reasonable guide on a horses ability, and some ways in which to project possible future outcomes.
Of course, with lightly raced horses the range of possible outcomes is wide but - again going back to our previous article - we showed that, since 2008, 64-percent of juveniles who ran to a Timeform rating of 110 or above within their first two starts went on to win at Group 1 level and 50-percent of that group went on to win a Group 1 in subsequent seasons.
When we removed the horses who failed to race on past their juvenile season that figure rose to 69-percent, with 18 horses from that select group winning at the top level as an older horse.
After flagging up More Radiant last time our next ‘horse to follow’ into this spring is another two-start juvenile who, when projected against past horses with similar ratings profiles, looks destined for better things.
Hallowed Crown falls just short of our group of horses that returned a rating of 110 or above in just two starts by just a single pound.
His smart debut was followed up by a cosy success at Group 3 level, returning a rating of 109p, with the runner up – a smart prospect in his own right – Washington Heights having given that form something of a boost already this term by running second in the San Domenico.
He kicks off this weekend in the Run To The Rose, for which he looks a lively contender, and a bold showing would no doubt have him surging up the markets for the Golden Rose itself and the race he projects best for, the Caulfield Guineas.
90-percent of Caulfield Guineas winners have been assessed as ‘smart performers’ in their juvenile season over the last two decades.
This perhaps illustrates the task that faces Sandown winner Divan who created a buzz winning a Sandown maiden this week and tightened in Guineas markets as a result.
His task isn’t impossible, his profile not dissimilar to 1998 Guineas winner Kenwood Melody, while Weekend Hussler and Helenus stopped by Sandown at this time of year on their way to trend-bucking wins in the Guineas, but it is certainly a path less likely than that being followed by horses like Hallowed Crown.
For the sake of comparison, at this time of the season, Kenwood Melody was rated 95p after two starts while Weekend Hussler and Helenus were rated 102p and 104 respectively.
Divan, after Wednesday, is rated 93p.
Add Hallowed Crown to your Blackbook here