Timeform Review – 2014 W S Cox Plate

3 minute read

The racing cauldron that is Moonee Valley came a light on Saturday afternoon when fourteen runners went to post for a fascinating renewal of Australia’s premier weight for age contest.

The 2014 W S Cox Plate run over 2040m comprised ten individual group one winners with 19 victories between them, headed of course by dual G1 ATC Doncaster Handicap winner Sacred Falls.

The field also comprised three overseas trained runners Adelaide, Guest Of Honour and Side Glance who returned for a second attempt after running sixth last year behind Shamus Award.

Iconic Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien who has won group one races all over the world had his first Cox Plate runner in three-year-old Adelaide, a progressive son of Galileo, who did not disappoint staging a remarkable last to first performance to narrowly claim the major prize from 2013 Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner.

For O’Brien it was his first major race win in Australia, eclipsing his previous best effort in 2007, with another three-year-old Mahler, who finished a game third behind Efficient in the Melbourne Cup.

Adelaide was partnered by champion British rider Ryan Moore, who like O’Brien has won major races throughout the world, but until Adelaide, had never won a race in Australia.

Before the Cox Plate, Moore had just two prior rides in Australia - in two Melbourne Cups - Mount Athos 2012 and Dandino 2013, both finishing unplaced after having little luck.

Now part-owned by Australian interests, Coolmore also remaining in the ownership, Adelaide’s campaign was meticulously planned by O’Brien from his base at Ballydoyle in Ireland, the master trainer leaving nothing to chance in his bid to land one of the big three targets on the Melbourne Spring racing calendar.

Considerable pre-race interest centred on how the race would be run but with the free-going Tasmanian galloper The Cleaner engaged, the pace was sure to be on from the start.

And it was -going down the short straight for the first time, there were four runners vying for the lead, with The Cleaner widest of all but finally taking control when the pace slowed slightly around the 1400m mark at which stage Adelaide was a clear last.

But around the 1200m Moore began to make his move setting Adelaide on a course around the field gradually picking off his rivals as the tempo began to moderate- moving into a strong challenging position at the 600m about eight lengths off the leader.

Moore continued to urge Adelaide forward out very deep approaching the turn for home - the widest runner some eight horses deep and five lengths off the lead but building momentum for the run to the line.

Adelaide showed great courage to keep coming in the closing stages joining the leaders at the 100m, eventually winning by a head from Fawkner in a blanket finish with Silent Achiever third.

As Adelaide crossed the line there were five horses within a length of him the others being Side Glance, Foreteller and Happy Trials.

Adelaide’s winning race time was the 2:03.76 just 0.22 seconds outside champion Might And Power’s class and race record set in 1998.

So fast did the leaders go early, that times normalised for 2040m reveal the first 1200m was run in 1:12.03 and the first 1000m in 0:57.58 seconds.

It is little wonder the leaders had to stop, but Adelaide’s last to first performance going around every other runner in the race was extraordinary – the first time that has been achieved in modern history.

The effort was even more remarkable as Australia was the fifth country Adelaide has competed in during his last six starts – Ireland, Britain, US and France being the others.

In assessing the merit of the performance historical race standards indicated a range of values between 121 and 131.

The ratings profiles of the contributing beaten runners also pointed to a value in the high 120’s with provisional figure of 129 initially adopted as the best measure of the performance but subsequently revised to 128 upon further analysis.

This figure also includes a slight mark up on the bare form for the race, which will be further assessed once the collateral form from the race unfolds.

The 128 value represents a new peak for Adelaide, a young progressive galloper who although placed over 2400m at Royal Ascot behind the highly talented Eagle Top in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes now has three of his four wins around 2000m. The remaining win being on debut over 1609m at Leopardstown.

With a Timeform rating of 128, Adelaide – still a three-year-old by northern hemisphere standards – would be the highest rated winner of the race for that age group in recent history, eclipsing the 127 by All Too Hard (second behind Ocean Park in 2012), Shamus Award 124 in 2013, So You Think 125 in 2009 and Red Anchor 127 in 1984.

In the overall context of the race, the win sits alongside some of the great previous Cox Plate winners such as Northerly (129 in 2002), Sunline (129 in 2000) but just behind So You Think (132 in 2010) and Might And Power (133 in 1998) and Better Loosen Up (131 in 1990).

The effort by runner up Fawkner was also exceptional, the Team Williams gallopers going to a slightly new peak Timeform rating of 125.

Fawkner has made the conversion from handicapper to weight fore age performer and travelled just on the back of the frantic early speed before being produced by Nick Hall at a similar stage to the winner but not covering anywhere near the same amount of ground.

Fawkner appeared likely to hold off Adelaide at the 100m mark but succumbed to the superior stamina of the winner in the closing stages.

Fawkner narrowly missed joining some past greats of the Australian turf who have won the Caulfield Cup one season then return the following to win a Cox Plate – Might And Power (1997-8), Rising Fast (1954-5) and Redcraze (1956-7) being the only horses in 92 years of Cox Plate history to achieve the feat.

2014 Ranvet Stakes and BMW winner Silent Achiever under Nash Rawiller showed a glimpse of her best form for a gallant third rating 119 but still four pounds under her peak Autumn ratings profile.

Australian-bred three-year-olds Sweynesse, Wandjina and Almalad faced a tough task with Swaynesse performing best, running eighth but to a new Timeform peak of 121 – the effort franking the G1 Spring Champion Stakes won by Hampton Court.

Almalad and Wandjina had very hard runs and may take time to recover from these efforts while Sacred Falls simply failed to stay the distance the way the race was run.